Toronto's Real Estate Bubble

  • AndreiAngelkovski

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 298
    Joined: 18 Sep 2007
    From: Toronto Beaches

     Hello REIN Investors,Is there a “bubble” in Toronto’s Real Estate Market?  You’ll hear different opinions from everyone you speak with and every newspaper you read.  Tim Syrianos is the Broker of Record and Owner of Remax Ultimate Realty Inc., Brokerage and he has been in the Real Estate Business for over 20 years.  Having gone through a couple recessions in his time, Tim’s opinion is that the Market in Toronto is currently strong and healthy, but some things need to change to help balance things out.  Being an active investor himself, Tim walks the talk and understands the investor mind.  We discuss issues like “what happens if the market dips by 30-40%”?  We all have our own goals and expectations and this would have a different impact on all of us.  However, “time happens” and if you are in this for the long term then watch this video blog.  

    Video Blog: Toronto's Real Estate "Bubble" 
    Andrei Angelkovski
    Investing in Toronto's Beaches
    www.BeachInvesting.com
    RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc
    Cell: 416-885-2010
    Email: andrei.angelkovski@rogers.com
  • MaximeValmont

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 142
    Joined: 24 Sep 2011
    From: Montreal




    First of all, if he is such a good investor , why the hell his he selling houses?

    I've learned something long time ago : Never  listen to people that are trying to sell you something.


    He actually says ZERO argument why he thinks the market is not overvaluated in Toronto, ZERO.

    The only thing I heard was 2-3 salesman techniques.

    There are so many things he could have said to be more convincing. But the only think he could think of is " Well, even if the market drops, the good news is you'll have paid some of the mortgage".

    Sorry, but I had to say the truth.


    Valmont.





    B.Comm,

    M.Sc Finance

    Candidate member at the appraisal institute of Canada.
  • housingrental

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 4,655
    Joined: 11 Oct 2007
    From: Waterloo

    As noted in other posts - being a Realtor does not preclude someone from being a good investor
    Adam Hoffman - Hoffaco Property Management - Waterloo - Rent / Consult / Manage - http://www.hoffaco.com
  • MaximeValmont

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 142
    Joined: 24 Sep 2011
    From: Montreal

     And being a Realtor does not assure that someone knows Real Estate, at ALL. Specially on a hard subject like bubble.

    I'm building my conclusion on the fact that this guy had no argument, not the fact that he is a realtor.

    Valmont.
    B.Comm,

    M.Sc Finance

    Candidate member at the appraisal institute of Canada.
  • housingrental

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 4,655
    Joined: 11 Oct 2007
    From: Waterloo

    Hi Valmont
    Thanks for your response
    So for the interests of discussion what signs do you see in Toronto?
    Adam Hoffman - Hoffaco Property Management - Waterloo - Rent / Consult / Manage - http://www.hoffaco.com
  • MaximeValmont

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 142
    Joined: 24 Sep 2011
    From: Montreal

     
    I haven't looked really deeply into the Toronto market.

    But Real Estate is really really simple : At the end it's all about sypply and demand.

    I think There is an over-supply in Toronto. I mean... Even the newspaper is talking about it. This is bad news. I know peole that have been talking about this bubble in the last 5 years.

    I know a builder in Toronto and he told be this is crazy what is going on over there. The amount of new building under construction is insane. Every builder saw the demand, and all of them said to themselve " Good time to build".

    The problem is if the demand drops ( and it will at some point), the construction must be finish no matter what. You can't stop the construction halfway. A condo tower is a long term project.

    I think the market will shift to a more balanced market in 2012.

    One thing is sure..  You guys, that are long-term cashflow investors, The is NO reason to invest in Toronto Right now. It's way too risky. Why invest in Toronto when you can invest in Edmonto, Calgary etc.

    Realt estate is not a broad business. You can't say : " Ok calgary is good, Toronto suck." This is not how it works at all. I'm an opportunistic investor. I only invest in some crazy good deals where I can raise the value of the building insanily high.  But for those that are trying to find good cashlfowing ptoperties for a long term hold, I see no reason to try to find properties in Toronto when you can do the same in Calgary, for exemple.



    Valmont.





    B.Comm,

    M.Sc Finance

    Candidate member at the appraisal institute of Canada.
  • housingrental

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 4,655
    Joined: 11 Oct 2007
    From: Waterloo

    Thanks Valmont
    Calgary also has it's risks - a prolonged downturn in gas and oil prices won't serve it well - and from a GTA perspective many investors are BETTING on sufficient population growth to absorb new condo supply
    Adam Hoffman - Hoffaco Property Management - Waterloo - Rent / Consult / Manage - http://www.hoffaco.com
  • jazy786

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 3
    Joined: 9 Mar 2012
    From:

    Hi

    I am new here like my very first hour at this space. I am really bothered and disturbed about the recent talks, blogs, etc about the Canadian RE bubble, particularly the GTA area. All this worrisome talk is making me think of selling my primary residence and cash out the equity I have, as its all paper until its in the bank. I live in Mississauga, ON. Having said that, will really appreciate if any of the old experts in RE investments would please provide their insights on how they feel on this issue e.g. will the GTA, Mississauga Market really can see a 20-30% drop in home values?

    Please and thank you.

    JK
  • MaximeValmont

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 142
    Joined: 24 Sep 2011
    From: Montreal

     
    In my opinion,


    It's not going to drop 20-30% really quickly like it did in the US. The difference is huge between what happened in the US and what's going on in Canada right now. There are lots of people that are saying the same will happen in Canada, but that's actually impossible in my opinion. From the numbers that I look at anyway.




    Valmont.
    B.Comm,

    M.Sc Finance

    Candidate member at the appraisal institute of Canada.
  • jonathanb

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 85
    Joined: 20 Aug 2010
    From: Waterloo

    MaximeValmont
    From the numbers that I look at anyway.
     

    Which numbers are those?   Im not trying to disagree, just curious.

    jon
  • MaximeValmont

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 142
    Joined: 24 Sep 2011
    From: Montreal

    Pay me and i'll tell you ;)


    Valmont
    B.Comm,

    M.Sc Finance

    Candidate member at the appraisal institute of Canada.
  • MaximeValmont

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 142
    Joined: 24 Sep 2011
    From: Montreal

    @ Housingrental, 


    What downturn in gas and oil prices?
    B.Comm,

    M.Sc Finance

    Candidate member at the appraisal institute of Canada.
  • housingrental

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 4,655
    Joined: 11 Oct 2007
    From: Waterloo

    It is possible

    It is not guaranteed

    No one knows the future

    You should ask yourself before selling - Can I afford to own my house? Do I want to live here? What will provide the best quality of life - less house and more $ for other things?

    If I asked myself if my house dropped 20% in value in X years would I be better off selling? I'm not sure.... if it's worth 20% less I won't enjoy my home 20% less :)



    jazy786
    Hi

    I am new here like my very first hour at this space. I am really bothered and disturbed about the recent talks, blogs, etc about the Canadian RE bubble, particularly the GTA area. All this worrisome talk is making me think of selling my primary residence and cash out the equity I have, as its all paper until its in the bank. I live in Mississauga, ON. Having said that, will really appreciate if any of the old experts in RE investments would please provide their insights on how they feel on this issue e.g. will the GTA, Mississauga Market really can see a 20-30% drop in home values?

    Please and thank you.

    JK
     
    Adam Hoffman - Hoffaco Property Management - Waterloo - Rent / Consult / Manage - http://www.hoffaco.com
  • housingrental

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 4,655
    Joined: 11 Oct 2007
    From: Waterloo

    My above post can be read with an "If" in front of it if it helps you as it lists some of the potential risks.
    As it is..they are both off quite a bit from their peaks currently, and I think many would view gas as well below their previous price expectations - and in turn this HAS impacted housing values in many cities in Alberta through it's impact on jobs
    MaximeValmont
    @ Housingrental, 


    What downturn in gas and oil prices?
     
    Adam Hoffman - Hoffaco Property Management - Waterloo - Rent / Consult / Manage - http://www.hoffaco.com
  • bizaro86

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 1,015
    Joined: 29 Jan 2008
    From: Calgary, AB

    MaximeValmont
    Pay me and i'll tell you ;)

    Valmont
     

    That's pretty far from the spirit of the forum here, imo.

    Michael
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