Why Ontario real estate prices will FALL to 2014 (except in some very select pockets)

  • ThomasBeyer

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 9,793
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Alberta and BC - The Top 2 Places on the Planet to live and invest !

    GM's Oshawa plant closing : http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/01/gm-to-close-oshawa-plant-lay-off-up-to-2000-union/

    plus RIM layoffs won't help.

    As stated, be very selective where to invest in Ontario.

    High debt, thus high taxes, high energy prices due to failed government incentives and high labour costs are the main reasons why Ontario will remain muted for much of the next 2-3 years .. problems similar to Europe's Spain, Italy & Ireland !!
    Thomas Beyer, Honorary REIN Member & Member REIN Advisory Board
    President, Prestigious Properties [@facebook .. @twitter]
    T: 403-678-3330 E: tbeyer at prestprop dot com - www.prestprop.com

    >>> Read here how use your RRSP or TFSA for real estate or  here for our latest investment opportunity in Alberta for as little as $20,000 <<<
    >> My book "80 Lessons Learned on the road from $80,000 to $80,000,000" is out: order it on Amazon or as an e-book for Kindle, iTunes or kobo format <<

                                  
  • TodorYordanov

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 603
    Joined: 10 Oct 2007
    From: Mississauga, Ontario

    Is this what Ontario is competing with?


    "Devastation on a scale the world has never seen before"

    http://climatecrocks.com/2012/03/30/the-true-cost-of-oil-alberta-tar-sands/ 

    "The greatest moral carelessness in human history"

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/movie/134887/dirty-oil 

    http://www.beautifuldestruction.ca/

    http://www.canada.com/news/Containment+underway+significant+leak+northwestern+Alberta/6678484/story.html

    What is the definition of a "one pony town" or province?
    It is a huge and dirty pony and we are all addicted to it.

    "The greatest moral carelessness in human history"

    Ask yourself: "What really is behind the Alberta "boom"? Did you create something? Made a difference? Left something for the next generation?
    Or did you just made a bunch of money from the tar sands on your way to the white sands of Belize...

    You govern yourself accordingly!

    Todor Yordanov
    Do or Do Not! There is no Try. - Yoda

    416-902-9707 - direct

    Proud recipient of REIN's Renovator of the Year Award (Ontario) for 2012

    www.ProactInvestments.com - Investing in Real Estate Properties with Joint Venture Partners.

    Sign Up for my Blog and Newsletter - Learn about exciting and profitable opportunities with Real Estate

    Connect with me on Facebook or LinkedIn




  • ThomasBeyer

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 9,793
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Alberta and BC - The Top 2 Places on the Planet to live and invest !

    TodorYordanov
    Ask yourself: "What really is behind the Alberta "boom"? Did you create something? Made a difference? Left something for the next generation?

    Like any large scale energy project anywhere, such as Quebec's massive hydro plants or nuclear power plants it provides: Energy for the world at affordable prices, jobs, tax revenue, clean environment, ethical companies, driver of economic activity in Canada, high tech jobs, cancer centers, healthcare related research, new schools, new roads, progress ..

    Great article below about 'Quebec and the fairy Godmother"

    But then, this post is not about Alberta, but Ontario.

    Fascinating article by Lisa Corbella of the Calgary Herald.

    Calgary Herald 
    Sat Dec 19 2009 
    Lisa Corbella 

    Quebec and the Fairy Godmother

    Today, let's have some fun and play Fairy Godmother to
     Quebec. Let's grant the province the wish it articulated in Copenhagen. Wave the magic wand and poof, wish granted. Shut down Alberta's oilsands, except, since it's Quebec making the wish, we have to call it tarsands, even though it's not tar they use to run their Bombardier planes, trains and Skidoos.

    Ah, at last! The blight on Canada's reputation shut down.
     All those dastardly workers from across Canada living in Fort McMurray, Calgary and Edmonton out of jobs, including those waitresses, truck drivers, nurses, teachers, doctors, pilots, engineers, etc. They can all go on Employment insurance like Ontario autoworkers and Quebec parts makers! Closing down Alberta's oil industry would immediately stop the production of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. Supply and demand being what it is, oil prices will go up and therefore the cost at the pump will go up, too, increasing the cost of everything else.

    But lost jobs in Alberta and across the country along with
     higher gas prices are a small price to pay to save the world and not
    "embarrass" Quebecers on the world stage. Not to worry though, Saudi Arabia,
     Libya and Nigeria can come to the rescue. You know, the guys who pump money into al-Qaida and help Osama bin Laden target those Van Doos fighting in Afghanistan. Bloody oil is so much nicer than dirty tarsands oil.

    Shutting down the oilsands will reduce Canada 's greenhouse
     gas (GHG) emissions by 38.4 Mt (megatonnes). Hooray! It's so fun to be a Fairy Godmother! While that sounds like a lot, Canada only produces two per cent of the world's man-made GHGs and the oilsands only produce five per cent of Canada 's total emissions or 0.1 per cent of the world's emissions. By comparison, the U.S. produces 20.2 per cent of the world's GHG emissions, 27 per cent of which comes from coal-fired electricity.

    The 530-square-kilometre piece of land currently disturbed
     by the oilsands (which is smaller than the John F. Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, Fla. at 570 square kilometres) must be reclaimed by law and will return to Alberta 's 381,000 square kilometres of boreal forest, a huge carbon sink.

    Quebec, of course, has clean hydro power, but more than
     13,000 square kilometres were drowned for the James Bay hydroelectric project, permanently removing that forest from acting as a carbon sink.

    But Fairy Godmother is digressing all over the place. While
     the oilsands only produce five per cent of Canada 's GHGs, it contributes much more to Canada 's economy. After all, oil and gas make up one-quarter of the value on the TSX alone. Alberta is also the largest net contributor per capita by far to Confederation and there are only two more -- B.C. and Ontario .

    Quebec hasn't made a net contribution to the rest of Canada
     for a very long time. This is not to be critical (after all, Fairy Godmothers never criticize), it's just a fact. In 2009, Albertans paid $40.46 billion in income, corporate and other taxes to the federal government and received back just $19.35 billion in services and goods from the feds. That means the rest of Canada got $21.1 billion from Albertans or $5,742 for each and every Alberta man, woman and child. In 2007 (the last year national figures are available), Alberta sent a net contribution of $19.49 billion to the ROC or $5,553 per Albertan -- more than three times what every Ontarian contributes at $1,757. Quebecers, on the other hand, each received $627 net or a total of $8 billion, money which was designed to help "equalize" social programs across the country. Except, that's not what is happening. Quebec has more generous social programs like (nearly) free university tuition (paid for mostly by Albertans) and cheap provincial day care (paid for mostly by Albertans).

    But in this Fairy Godmother world, poof, those delightful
     unequal programs have now disappeared! Quel dommage!


    The July 2009 Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) report states that between 2008 and 2032, the oilsands will account for 172,000 person-years of employment in Ontario during the construction phase, plus 640,000 for operations over the 25-year period. For Quebec, the oilsands will account for 84,000 person-years of employment during the construction phase, plus 292,000 for operations over the 25-year period. In total, the oilsands are expected to add $1.7 trillion to Canada 's GDP over the next 25 years.

    Wave wand and Poof, Jobs, gone! So, now that the oil
     industry has shut down and left Alberta, Alberta has become a have-not province and so has every other province. Equality at last! Hugo Chavez will be so pleased.

    Meeting our Copenhagen targets suddenly looks possible, as
     most of us can't afford to drive our cars or buy anything but necessities, so manufacturers have closed their doors and emissions are way down.

    The dream of many Quebecers to form their own nation and
     separate from Canada has died at last. Alas, in Alberta , separatist sentiment has risen dramatically, citizens vote to separate and the oil and gas industry returns.

    Albertans start to pocket that almost $6,000 for each person
     that used to get sent elsewhere and now their kids get free tuition. Fairy Godmother's work is done. Wish granted. Quebecers must now sign up for a foreign worker visas to work in Alberta to send their cheques back home so junior can start saving up to pay for college.

    Licia Corbella is editorial page editor of The Calgary Herald.

    Thomas Beyer, Honorary REIN Member & Member REIN Advisory Board
    President, Prestigious Properties [@facebook .. @twitter]
    T: 403-678-3330 E: tbeyer at prestprop dot com - www.prestprop.com

    >>> Read here how use your RRSP or TFSA for real estate or  here for our latest investment opportunity in Alberta for as little as $20,000 <<<
    >> My book "80 Lessons Learned on the road from $80,000 to $80,000,000" is out: order it on Amazon or as an e-book for Kindle, iTunes or kobo format <<

                                  
  • TodorYordanov

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 603
    Joined: 10 Oct 2007
    From: Mississauga, Ontario

    Propaganda at it's finest.
    Scare tactics.
    Canada will plumed to the third world if not for the oil-sands and those generous Albertans.

    Love the first few paragraphs. Speaks loud and clear: If you don't agree with my point of view, you must be sympathetic to Al quaeda and Osama Bin Laden.

    There is no other choice. You are with us or you are in the Osama camp!

    Or is there?

    More green energy, less mindless consumption, more electric cars and natural gas powered vehicles.
    We really don't need all this much to be happy. More and more of the young people are waking up to this fact and finding happiness with less. They are also more aware than ever of where everything comes up from and the impact it has on the planet and our way of life.

    Comforting to know that they are spending money on cancer research and health related studies. Are you kidding me?

    We have to make money from oil, so we have money to spend on healthcare and cancer research?

    Todor Yordanov
    Do or Do Not! There is no Try. - Yoda

    416-902-9707 - direct

    Proud recipient of REIN's Renovator of the Year Award (Ontario) for 2012

    www.ProactInvestments.com - Investing in Real Estate Properties with Joint Venture Partners.

    Sign Up for my Blog and Newsletter - Learn about exciting and profitable opportunities with Real Estate

    Connect with me on Facebook or LinkedIn




  • ThomasBeyer

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 9,793
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Alberta and BC - The Top 2 Places on the Planet to live and invest !

    TodorYordanov
    Canada will plumed to the third world if not for the oil-sands

    Look at Italy, Spain or Greece to see what would happen to Canada without extensive resource extraction & transportation across the country. Most regions benefit and have extensive mining operation: coal, oil, gas, potash, copper, gold, diamonds, in almost every Canadian province. Oilsands extraction north of Ft. McMurray happens to be the biggest mining project, but is not the only one, and it happens to be surface mining. If you go further east, into Cold Lake or Saskatchewan it is underground, green oil, really through SAGD methods.

    Without oil, this industrialized world could not function, and that includes a thriving car manufacturing industry in Ontario.

    Of course doing more with less should be promoted as should renewable energy if the costs are similar. Way too much money is invested into so called "green" energy projects which are essentially a waste of tax and/or rate payers' money.

    Ontario used to have two big advantages over Europe: lower energy costs, and lower taxes (due to lower debt), and a big advantage over  the US: lower labor costs, but all three of those major advantages are gone and caused me to write this article.

    Electric cars are useful in cities for smaller distances, but try to drive even from Toronto to Montreal or God forbid, with 4 people in the winter from Saskatoon to Edmonton. If only 10% of car owners had an electric car the grid couldn't handle it. Plus there is the massive toxic content in the "green" batteries. Not as green as advertised.

    Did you now that Alberta has the most wind energy production in Canada per capita ? http://www.canwea.ca/farms/wind-farms_e.php With almost no subsidies !! Not exactly "green" if you are a bird or have to look at it or live nearby with its "whoom whoom whoom" massive blades, but OK in remote locations.

    As we see now in Europe the massive subsidies to solar and wind are unsustainable, like Ontario, and one reason for the massive debt and decline of living standards and house prices: failed government energy policies.

    So, let's continue this blog about Ontario, if you want, and/or about failed energy subsidies.

    It is not about Alberta.
    Thomas Beyer, Honorary REIN Member & Member REIN Advisory Board
    President, Prestigious Properties [@facebook .. @twitter]
    T: 403-678-3330 E: tbeyer at prestprop dot com - www.prestprop.com

    >>> Read here how use your RRSP or TFSA for real estate or  here for our latest investment opportunity in Alberta for as little as $20,000 <<<
    >> My book "80 Lessons Learned on the road from $80,000 to $80,000,000" is out: order it on Amazon or as an e-book for Kindle, iTunes or kobo format <<

                                  
  • TodorYordanov

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 603
    Joined: 10 Oct 2007
    From: Mississauga, Ontario

     This is not a blog about Ontario. It is a blog against Ontario.
    You've pained a pretty dark picture for the future of this province and your view of property prices for the next 2-3 years. Then you kept on posting every article that has anything negative to say about Ontario. Repeatedly and methodically. I can do the same about Alberta if I wanted to. But now I am done.

    What was the value of all of that?

    Ontario is f***ed, come invest in Alberta.

    Am I the only one who is sick and tired of this message?

    Anyone?

    Todor Yordanov
    Do or Do Not! There is no Try. - Yoda

    416-902-9707 - direct

    Proud recipient of REIN's Renovator of the Year Award (Ontario) for 2012

    www.ProactInvestments.com - Investing in Real Estate Properties with Joint Venture Partners.

    Sign Up for my Blog and Newsletter - Learn about exciting and profitable opportunities with Real Estate

    Connect with me on Facebook or LinkedIn




  • ThomasBeyer

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 9,793
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Alberta and BC - The Top 2 Places on the Planet to live and invest !

    The truth shall set you free.

    This blog is about relevant facts. It is not against or for a specific property or province. You can lose money in Alberta or make a killing in Ontario if you buy well. It is a fact or experience based opinion, like all my blog entries.

    I have seen Eastern Europe before the wall came down in the last 80's. Hence my disdain for socialism and its implications such as increased taxes, increased regulations (such a too tenant friendly & rent control laws), lower job growth, lower wages, and related: lower real estate values.

    Look what happened to socialistic SK after they voted Brad Wall in: the economy and real estate prices exploded. This could happen again in Ontario .. but not before 2014 [Hence the blog title]
    Thomas Beyer, Honorary REIN Member & Member REIN Advisory Board
    President, Prestigious Properties [@facebook .. @twitter]
    T: 403-678-3330 E: tbeyer at prestprop dot com - www.prestprop.com

    >>> Read here how use your RRSP or TFSA for real estate or  here for our latest investment opportunity in Alberta for as little as $20,000 <<<
    >> My book "80 Lessons Learned on the road from $80,000 to $80,000,000" is out: order it on Amazon or as an e-book for Kindle, iTunes or kobo format <<

                                  
  • invst4profit

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 2,045
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Kingston Ontario

    Todor Yordanov
     What was the value of all of that?

    Ontario is f***ed, come invest in Alberta.

    Am I the only one who is sick and tired of this message?

    Anyone?



    I can't say that I am "sick and tired" of the message but as a Ontario investor I definitely agree "Ontario is f***ed" in my opinion. Definitely not investor and especially not landlord friendly.

    As far as the Alberta oil situation is concerned I personally don't give a damn about the green movement. If some group decides to target the cause of the problem instead of the symptom (pollution) I might get on-board that campaign.
     
    Clearly the money is west but that doesn't mean everyone needs to follow the money.  
      
     

    Greg

    "An individual must enforce his own meaning in life and rise above the perceived conformity of the masses" (Anton LaVey)

      
  • EdRenkema

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 1,234
    Joined: 19 Sep 2007
    From: Beamsville, Ontario

    invst4profit
    Clearly the money is west but that doesn't mean everyone needs to follow the money.
     

    Interesting exchange here and I can't say I disagree with any of the last 3 posts.
    I agree most with Greg's last point, I have direct family that moved to Calgary Ab 12 years ago and they certainly don't regret it. Ontario still has a bright future but that is only in spite of the left leaning, vote buying prov. gov't.
    Some of my right leaning friends are installing solar panels and why not? They can get paid 80c per kwh they produce and they pay about 15c per kwh for the same power they use. Duh!

    The world wants and needs more of Canada's politically stable and ethically produced petroleum products. Anyone that calls it dirty oil had better stop driving their cars... and I see very few of the general public who choose to walk or cycle instead of drive even when it is a viable and logical option!
    invst4profit
    As far as the Alberta oil situation is concerned I personally don't give a damn about the green movement. If some group decides to target the cause of the problem instead of the symptom (pollution) I might get on-board that campaign.

    And that quote says it all!
    Edward B. Renkema-Real Estate Investment Specialist
    Investing in Hamilton where- Your Money Works for You
    c. 905-329-1460
    f. 905-563-6071

    ed@cfiproperties.ca
    cfiproperties.blogspot.com
    edrenkema@yahoo.ca
  • housingrental

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 4,655
    Joined: 11 Oct 2007
    From: Waterloo

    Yes
    Thomas - Please stop comparing Ontario to former Communist countries. Or at least include Alberta and BC in your critiques for balance :)


    TodorYordanov
     This is not a blog about Ontario. It is a blog against Ontario.
    You've pained a pretty dark picture for the future of this province and your view of property prices for the next 2-3 years. Then you kept on posting every article that has anything negative to say about Ontario. Repeatedly and methodically. I can do the same about Alberta if I wanted to. But now I am done.

    What was the value of all of that?

    Ontario is f***ed, come invest in Alberta.

    Am I the only one who is sick and tired of this message?

    Anyone?
     
    Adam Hoffman - Hoffaco Property Management - Waterloo - Rent / Consult / Manage - http://www.hoffaco.com
  • Rickson9

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 837
    Joined: 27 Oct 2009
    From:

    What are the consequences to the roof after installing solar panels? I know an installer of these panels, and knowing how these things are installed, even he wonders what the home owners are going to do when they have to replace/repair their shingles. As an aside, invest in Phoenix where there is no rent control and tenants have no rights ;)
      
  • invst4profit

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 2,045
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Kingston Ontario

    Regrettably in Ontario as tenants rights increase under our present government rental property values will drop which will ultimately result in fewer units available. This province has taken the wrong path in allowing tenants virtual ownership of a landlords property once they have occupancy. Landlord rights are almost non existent in Ontario thanks to the Landlord Tenant Board which was renamed from the Tenant Protection Board without change of content.

    Phoenix sounds like a investors utopia as far as having control over their property.  

    Greg

    "An individual must enforce his own meaning in life and rise above the perceived conformity of the masses" (Anton LaVey)

      
  • ThomasBeyer

    Status: REIN™ Member

    Posts: 9,793
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Alberta and BC - The Top 2 Places on the Planet to live and invest !

    invst4profit
    Regrettably in Ontario as tenants rights increase under our present government rental property values will drop which will ultimately result in fewer units available. This province has taken the wrong path in allowing tenants virtual ownership of a landlords property once they have occupancy. Landlord rights are almost non existent in Ontario thanks to the Landlord Tenant Board which was renamed from the Tenant Protection Board without change of content.


    Indeed .. we own one property in Ontario .. and while vacancies are similar to our BC or AB properties the time and money it costs to actually get a tenant out who doesn't pay is insane .. about triple what it would cost in AB or double to BC which also has a fairly tenant-friendly but far more balanced landlord-tenant act ..

    so tenant selection is critical in Ontario ..

    Thomas Beyer, Honorary REIN Member & Member REIN Advisory Board
    President, Prestigious Properties [@facebook .. @twitter]
    T: 403-678-3330 E: tbeyer at prestprop dot com - www.prestprop.com

    >>> Read here how use your RRSP or TFSA for real estate or  here for our latest investment opportunity in Alberta for as little as $20,000 <<<
    >> My book "80 Lessons Learned on the road from $80,000 to $80,000,000" is out: order it on Amazon or as an e-book for Kindle, iTunes or kobo format <<

                                  
  • invst4profit

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 2,045
    Joined: 30 Aug 2007
    From: Kingston Ontario

    One more, or maybe the final, nail in the coffin the Ontario government placed a cap on annual rent increases today at 2.5%.
    Long term tenants will become a death Nell for landlords that will no longer be able to keep up with the increased annual costs of operating our business.
    The aim is to provide more affordable housing but what the end result will be is landlords will be forced to raise rents to a much higher level between tenants to protect themselves against the possibility of ending up with a long term tenant. More and more tenants at the same time will become long term to avoid rent increases. Catch 22. All round bad situation for investors/landlords in Ontario.

    Greg

    "An individual must enforce his own meaning in life and rise above the perceived conformity of the masses" (Anton LaVey)

      
  • EdRenkema

    Status: Forum Member

    Posts: 1,234
    Joined: 19 Sep 2007
    From: Beamsville, Ontario

    Rickson9
    What are the consequences to the roof after installing solar panels?
     
    They are not installing panels on the roof, free standing units, 8 yr payback... ($$$)
    Edward B. Renkema-Real Estate Investment Specialist
    Investing in Hamilton where- Your Money Works for You
    c. 905-329-1460
    f. 905-563-6071

    ed@cfiproperties.ca
    cfiproperties.blogspot.com
    edrenkema@yahoo.ca
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