Well, here it goes.
In my opinion, I think we are heading towards par and will reach it within the next 12 months and here is why. Canada has the 3 F’s – Food, Fuel, Fertilizer. Who needs it the most – China. What does China have – a surplus of money. Why? Because they have been manufacturing goods and supplying them to the US for sometime. The US has not produced a whole lot. They have been a major consumer of goods though. So they have a lot of debt that they need to pay for in some way.
From my understanding, the general US population has been cashing out of the stock market and placing it into US bonds. Look at the DOW and the S&P 500 right now. Both are trending down wards. Some have bought Gold because of the belief that we are in times of uncertainty and hence Gold has an upwards trend. Because US bonds are being purchased, this is helping the US dollar look stronger, but looking at their GDP at -3.6 and other fundamentals, this doesn’t support this along with other decreasing facts such as personal consumption, exports and employment. The only increase was government spending!
Recently Hillary Clinton was in China to tell them that they need purchase US bonds so that the US can keep buying the stuff they produce. The fact is, China doesn’t need the US to buy their stuff as they have their own people that can support themselves. China will buy the stuff they need – Fuel, Food and Fertilizer.
So, since China will not buy US bonds, and the US is not producing anything of value, it too is becoming of less value (not producing anything, getting to more debt) which will drive their dollar down further. Since Canada has something of value to the rest of the world our dollar will stay strong.
Now I’m not an economist or anything close, but I have only regurgitated a lot of the facts and opinions from the big boys like Don, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and Eric Sprott to name a few and have came up with my own. The people I have mentioned are purchasing Canadian - oil, agricultural land, precious metals etc... and are getting out of the US and getting rid of any US funds they have.
What I think you will see is the US dollar hold its strength for another month or two (because of bond buying) then start to fall. How rapid is the question will depend on how fast people will start to get out of the bond market due to the falling US dollar and start to put it into some other currency or commodity.
My (complex and long) opinion for what its worth. Whew!