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July 2010 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

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Signing real estate deals requires careful attention

Buyers and sellers must be aware of many technical issues and requirements when signing real estate agreements.

Under the Ontario Statute of Frauds, real estate agreements are only valid if they are in writing and signed by the parties. A handshake agreement to sell your property will not be enforceable.

The standard resale agreement provides a spot for the buyer and seller to sign, as well as a witness. What happens if the witness does not sign? Can the seller or buyer cancel the agreement?

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Drop in home construction adds to U.S. woes

After showing flickers of life this spring, the U.S. housing market is headed back to the sickbed.

A clutch of recent data points to renewed pain in a long-suffering area of the economy. Steps by the government to spur home buying worked, but only temporarily. As those measures have expired, the underlying forces – a vast supply paired with moribund demand – are reasserting themselves in unpleasant ways.

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Canada expected to follow U.S. in economic slowdown

The mighty U.S. economy is slowing again, and with it Canada`s chances of escaping the global downdraft.

A sudden plunge Friday in a closely watched index of consumer confidence is the latest clue the recovery has stalled in the U.S., Canada`s neighbour and largest trading partner.

Economists warn that Canadian businesses and investors should brace for the inevitable spillover as the U.S. grapples with a slowing economy and a growing fiscal hangover from years of excess.

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Foreign investors eye Canada as haven

International demand for Canadian securities is soaring to new heights, buoyed by the country`s strong economy, fiscal position and financial sector, and as signs of trouble abroad reduce investors` appetite for riskier assets.

Foreigners snapped up a record net $23.2-billion in Canadian securities in May, Statistics Canada said Monday, led by an unprecedented $11.5-billion in government bonds that eclipsed the previous high by a margin of nearly two to one.

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Bank of Canada stands apart as it raises rates

Mark Carney has now done twice what no other Group of Seven central banker appears even close to doing once – he raised interest rates for the second month in a row – but global developments could slow his hand.

Tuesday`s move, which brought the Bank of Canada`s benchmark overnight rate to a still-low 0.75 per cent, reflects Canada`s unique position as a rich country that has recovered almost all of the jobs lost during the recession, where a post-crisis housing boom has already come and gone, and where record overseas demand for safe government bonds is poised to allow Ottawa and the provinces fund a few more years of deficit spending without being crippled by interest payments.


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Exporting jobs a dumb way to pursue a knowledge economy


"You could say that shipping jobs overseas is no big deal because the high-value work -- and much of the profits -- remain in the U.S. But what kind of a society are we going to have if it consists of highly paid people doing high-value-added work, and masses of unemployed?" Take a guess. Who do you think made this statement?

Filmmaker Michael Moore, perhaps? An angry union leader? The mayor of some hard-luck city like Windsor or Cleveland?

Nope. Wrong on all counts. Try Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel, the world`s largest maker of computer chips.

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Commentary: States of Crisis

Governors know plenty of phony ways to balance out-of-whack state budgets. Here are a few honest ones


As the weak economy punishes state budgets, it is driving some politicians to take refuge in almost hallucinatory forms of accounting. Unable to pay vendors, Illinois piled up a $5 billion mountain of IOUs. California Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger warned 200,000 state employees he might temporarily have to cut their pay to minimum wage. And New York, whose fiscal year began on Apr. 1, is limping along without a budget because warring parties are using the negotiating tactic called "delay until you get your way." New York Democratic Governor David Paterson says he almost feels like moving to Vermont. "I think I might just walk over there and see if they`d like me to stay," Paterson joked to a Bloomberg News reporter on July 10 during a break at the National Governors Assn. meeting in Boston.

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Retail sales take surprise drop in May

OTTAWA — Sales by Canadian retailers fell unexpectedly in May, led lower by building material stores and gasoline stations, Statistics Canada reported Thursday.

The federal agency said sales edged down 0.2 per cent to $36 billion during the month, following a revised 2.2 per cent drop in April. Minus the auto sector, sales were down 0.1 per cent to $28.4 billion in May.

Most economists had expected an overall 0.4 per cent increase in May and a 0.5 per cent rise excluding autos.

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Commodity prices slide again, but supply issues linger

OTTAWA — Commodity prices fell another 1.9 per cent in June as slowing growth in China, the European debt crisis and U.S.recovery concerns dominated the market, Scotiabank said Wednesday in its monthly commodity report.

June`s decline follows on a 4.6 per cent drop the month before, but still leaves Scotiabank`s commodity price index — a measure of price trends in 32 of Canada`s major exports — 21.4 per cent above the April 2009 cyclical low, said Scotiabank commodity specialist Patricia Mohr.

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Growth petered out in 2nd quarter: Bank of Canada

OTTAWA -- The Bank of Canada said Thursday economic growth petered out sharply in the second quarter on softer household spending and a marked decline in the real estate market, and is expected to maintain this slower pace through next year on a weaker global outlook.

Still, the central bank suggested in its updated economic forecast it expected to undertake "gradual" interest-rate hikes to keep inflation near its preferred 2% target, as credit conditions in Canada remain "favourable" and the job market strengthens.

Analysts suggested this indicates that further interest rate hikes are in the offing. Mark Carney, the Bank of Canada governor, told reporters otherwise.

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June existing home sales fall 5.1%, beat expectations

WASHINGTON -- U.S. existing home sales fell less sharply than expected to a three-month low in June, though the supply of unsold homes rose to the highest in almost a year, an industry group said on Thursday.

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Loonie should approach parity when U.S. outlook improves

In just a few weeks, currency markets have moved from worrying that the eurozone would be dismantled to doubting the U.S. recovery. After falling 20% since the fourth quarter of 2009, the euro has bounced back 9% since troughing in June.

This is despite the fact that in the second quarter, the U.S. economy will probably register its strongest domestic demand growth since the end of 2005, according to Yanick Desnoyers, assistant chief economist at National Bank Financial. As a result, he feels suggestions of a new U.S. economic downturn are unjustified.

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Canada`s economy slowing sharply, central bank says

OTTAWA - CANADA`S ECONOMY IS SLOWING MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THE BANK OF CANADA SAID THURSDAY IN A BLEAK OUTLOOK THAT STRESSED MOUNTING RISKS FROM EUROPE`S DEBT CRISIS AND A POSSIBLE STALL IN THE GLOBAL RECOVERY.

BUT GOVERNOR MARK CARNEY SAID THE ODDS OF THE COUNTRY SINKING INTO A SECOND RECESSION ARE REMOTE, ADDING THAT GOVERNMENTS` RESPONSES IN BACKSTOPPING EUROPEAN DEBT AND PLEDGING TO RESTRAIN SPENDING HAVE MOSTLY TAKEN THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OUT OF PLAY.

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Oil Sands Opponents Will Lose, Economist Suggests

Attempts by some American policymakers to limit fuel from Alberta`s high-carbon oil sands will ultimately fail, a leading Canadian economist predicted. And two pro-oil lobby groups fighting U.S. climate legislation appear to agree.

"Being able to receive crucial oil to fuel your economy from a stable, friendly country like Canada has an awful lot of merit to it," BMO senior economist Earl Sweet told The Tyee. "I suspect that will overcome," he claims, "current environmental misconceptions that are being propagated in some quarters of the United States."

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Hearing set for watchdog, realtor dispute

A hearing into the battle between the Canadian real estate industry and the federal competition watchdog is set to begin next April.

The Canadian Real Estate Association and the Competition Bureau will meet at the Competition Tribunal on April 26, 2011, in Ottawa to deal with charges that CREA is anti-competitive, sources told the Financial Post.

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Consumer prices rise 1% in June: StatsCan

OTTAWA — Consumer prices in Canada were up one per cent in June compared to a year earlier, down from a rate of 1.4 per cent in May this year, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The lower rate was mainly on falling gasoline prices and were in line with analysts` expectations.

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Recovery waning but Canada, B.C. can still build their economies

Canada may have emerged from the recession faster than other developed nations, and its recovery may be more vigorous than in other countries still burdened by deficits and debts.

And it might be true that British Columbia is particularly well positioned to prosper because of its proximity to Asian markets. But let`s not be too smug.

There are risks to this rosy scenario that governments need to consider as they go about the budgeting process.

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Bank of Canada tips its hand on rates

OTTAWA -- The Bank of Canada may have let the cat out of bag on interest rates Thursday, analysts say, when it indicated that "gradual" hikes are forecast to keep inflation near its preferred 2% target.

The suggestion, described as a "candid moment" by one analyst, was contained in the central bank`s latest economic forecast, which indicated economic growth petered out sharply last quarter and a slower pace of expansion is set to continue through next year.

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Higher GST revenue sends deficit down

OTTAWA • The federal government recorded a deficit of $4.4-billion in the first two months of the fiscal year -- a shortfall that`s roughly 41% smaller than the same year-ago period on stronger GST revenue, the Department of Finance said Friday.

The results were based on a 7.3% increase in tax revenue, and a 1.4% drop in program spending. Further, Finance said $1.8-billion, or 40%, of the two-month $4.4-billion budget deficit is attributable to the government`s stimulus measures, which are set to expire at the end of this fiscal year in March.

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Bank of Canada interest rate unlikely to top 1% this year: report

Slower than expected economic growth in the U.S. is set to hamper Canadian exports, meaning the Bank of Canada`s interest rate is unlikely to rise beyond 1% by the end of the year, says a research note from Lombard Street Research.

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