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June 2010

Ally

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News articles for June 2010.
 

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Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 0.5%

OTTAWA — For the first time in nearly three years, the Bank of Canada on Tuesday hiked its key interest rate, by 25 basis points to 0.5 per cent, as the domestic economy rebounds strongly against the backdrop of an "uneven" global recovery.

However, it signalled in its accompanying statement there is "considerable uncertainty" in the economic outlook given fiscal and financial unrest in Europe. As a result, further rate hikes "have to be weighed carefully" against global and domestic developments.

"This decision still leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the two per cent inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in Canada, the strength of domestic spending and the uneven global recovery," the central bank, led by governor Mark Carney, said.

That led some analysts to suggest there is no guarantee the central bank would raise rates again at its next scheduled meeting in mid-July.

"The July meeting is not a slam dunk," said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. "The downside risk is causing policy-makers to lower the hawkish sails."

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Canada`s economy keeps roaring ahead

The Canadian economy, already the envy of the Group of Seven, is within striking distance of returning to its pre-recession peak.

Fuelled by a hot housing market, a rebounding manufacturing sector, higher incomes and a mini-hiring boom, the economy expanded in the first three months of the year at the fastest annualized pace in more than a decade. The stronger-than-expected 6.1-per-cent rate reported by Statistics Canada Monday was more than twice the rate of growth in the United States in the same period.

The report is the latest in a series of data releases to show that virtually every sector of the economy is picking up steam, and may clinch a Bank of Canada interest rate hike this morning.

Governor Mark Carney is unique among central bankers in the G7 – which also includes the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and Japan – in already having to carefully watch inflation as Canada`s economy improves. Mr. Carney`s most recent projections in April showed annual price increases moving past his 2-per-cent target later this year, giving him enough ammunition to signal he was getting ready to raise interest rates as soon as today.

"The need for near-zero interest rates has clearly passed and the last couple of quarters have demonstrated that the emergency situation is over," CIBC World Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld said in an interview.

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Canada`s economy grows faster than expected

OTTAWA — Canada`s economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the first quarter of this year, led by consumer spending, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike Tuesday by the country`s central bank.

Gross domestic product rose at an annualized pace of 6.1 per cent between January and March, the biggest jump since the last quarter of 1999, Statistics Canada reported Monday. Growth in the fourth quarter of last year was revised to 4.9 per cent from five per cent.

Most economists had expected GDP growth of 5.8 per cent in the first three months of 2010.

"Residential investment increased for a fourth consecutive quarter, as did consumer spending on goods and services," Statistics Canada said. "Export and import volumes both rose for a third consecutive quarter, with growth in imports outpacing growth in exports in the first quarter."

This marks the third straight quarter of economic growth in Canada, following three consecutive quarters of contraction.

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BMO lowers fixed mortgage rate

The Bank of Montreal lowered its five-year low-rate fixed mortgage by 10 basis points to 4.25% Tuesday, a surprising move coming just minutes after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.5%.

The new rate will be effective June 2.

"Today`s Bank of Canada announcement might leave some home buyers believing they`re too late to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates," Jane Yuen, senior manager of mortgages with BMO, said in a release.

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Canada first in G7 to hike rate

OTTAWA -- For the first time in nearly three years, the Bank of Canada on Tuesday hiked its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, as the domestic economy rebounds strongly against the backdrop of an “uneven” global recovery.

However, it signalled in its accompanying statement there is “considerable uncertainty” in the economic outlook given fiscal and financial unrest in Europe. As a result, further rate hikes “have to be weighed carefully” against global and domestic developments.

“This decision still leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in Canada, the strength of domestic spending and the uneven global recovery,” the central bank, led by governor Mark Carney, said.

That led some analysts to suggest there is no guarantee the central bank would raise rates again at its next scheduled meeting in mid-July.

“The July meeting is not a slam dunk,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “The downside risk is causing policymakers to lower the hawkish sails.”

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Canadian investment real estate poised for rebound

OTTAWA -- Real estate investment is ready for a rebound, according to an international survey that suggests both real estate investors both in Canada and abroad are ready to put some faith -- and some money -- in the market.

Respondents to the 2010 Global Investor Sentiment Survey said access to financing was becoming easier, and the majority of private and institutional Canadian investors plan to use that money at home, according to Colliers International, a global real estate services company which conducted the survey.

Responses to the survey suggest that activities will start to pick up in the third quarter of this year.

“Cautious optimism is the prevailing wind across Canada,” wrote report authors Wayne Duong, Canadian director of research, and Milton Lamb, chair of Colliers Canada’s national investment team, adding that now is the time to buy, before interest rates go up as expected this summer.

While Canadian investors don’t believe the market has bottomed out yet, 65% of them plan to make real estate purchases in the next year; 64% of global investors signalled their intention to do the same.

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House prices set to fall: CIBC

A new report from one of the country`s major banks says house prices in Canada are sitting 14 per cent over their "fair" value.

The report from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce says the average price of a home has risen 23 per cent since reaching its cyclical low in January 2009.

British Columbia and Alberta homes are the most overpriced, at 25 per cent above their fair value. CIBC establishes what it calls fair value from market fundamentals that include income, rent and demographic changes.

"This doesn`t mean that house prices are going to crash tomorrow," said Benjamin Tal, senior economist with the bank. "I`m saying they probably will go down by five per cent or 10 per cent."

The CIBC survey came out the same day as a new report from Royal Bank of Canada that shows affordability eroded in the first quarter.

"Looking ahead, further erosion in affordability is likely to take place in Canada in the coming 12 to 18 months," said the report, written by Robert Hogue, senior economist with the bank.

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CREA lowers housing forecast as market weakens

TORONTO -- Rapidly changing market conditions have led the Canadian Real Estate Association to lower its forecast for housing sales this year.

The Ottawa-based group, which represents 100 boards across the country, now says 2010 sales will not be as strong as previously forecast and by next year prices will begin falling.

CREA expects 490,600 sales through the Multiple Listing Service in 2010, a 5.5% jump from a year earlier and the second-best year on record. However, by 2011, sales are expected to fall by 8.5%.

"The revision reflects a weaker-than-expected start to the year in British Columbia, and recent developments that pulled forward the timing as to when sales are expected to ease in other provinces," the group said in a statement.

A major factor pushing people into the market earlier has been new mortgage rules that went into effect April 19. Canadians buying homes with mortgage default insurance must now qualify based on what is called the benchmark rate for a five-year fixed-rate closed mortgage, if they opt for terms of under five years.

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Canada gains 24,700 jobs in May

OTTAWA — The Canadian economy delivered an "astonishing" job report Friday that far surpassed expectations and may pressure the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates.

The economy added 24,700 workers to payrolls in May, Statistics Canada reported Friday. The jobs were mostly full-time and in the private-sector and were well above Bay Street expectations for a 15,000 gain.

Several analysts suggested this represents more evidence interest rates in Canada will continue to head upward.

"This should up the ante on further Bank of Canada hikes," said Derek Holt, vice-president of economics at Scotia Capital. "This is simply an astounding jobs report."

In contrast, the U.S. jobs data for May came in well below expectations, with 411,000 people added to payrolls versus an anticipated 533,000 gain. Particularly disappointing was that gains in private-sector employment, of 41,000, were little changed from the prior month. The anticipation was that the private sector would add 190,000 jobs. As a result, most of the U.S. job gains were temporary hires by the U.S. government to help conduct that country`s census.

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Investment report ranks Calgary as #1 in Canadian real estate markets

CALGARY - Calgary is the best place in Canada to invest in the residential real estate market, according to a new report released today.

The Real Estate Investment Network`s report said that Calgary experienced one of its best economic and real estate periods in Canadian history a couple of years ago but then entered a strong, and needed correction.

"During the economic downturn, Calgary`s market is making a predictable correction resulting in slightly more affordable housing compared to recent years passed," said the report. "It was economically impossible for the market to continue at the pace at which it was heading and now finds itself adjusting to market realities.

"This adjustment period, as the market searches for its new foundation from which to build, should continue in 2010 as the provincial economy is poised for another growth spurt."

The REIN report said the in-migration pace in the city continuing to lead the country combined with the "renewed affordability" will help propel the local market over the coming years.

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G20 scraps plans for universal bank tax

BUSAN - The world`s top economies scrapped plans for a universal global bank tax on Saturday, giving countries plenty of wiggle room over how to make banks pay for their bailouts in future.

Finance ministers from the Group of 20 countries ended a two-day meeting to review progress on a string of initiatives agreed last year to make the financial system safer and protect taxpayers from having to pay for bank rescues again.

Attempts to introduce a global bank levy were finally ditched in the face of opposition from Japan, Canada and Brazil whose banks needed no public aid during the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

"There is no agreement to proceed with an ex ante bank tax," said Canadian Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty.

The G20 said it recognised there was a range of policy approaches and that it will approve a set of principles later this month in Toronto on how to protect taxpayers.

British Finance Minister George Osborne reiterated his pledge to introduce a UK bank tax regardless of what other countries do and will spell out his plans in a budget report on June 22.

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U.S. job numbers send stock markets tumbling

The Toronto Stock Exchange saw its biggest loss in more than two weeks Friday as job gains in the United States for May came in less than expected.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 242.27 points, or 2.05 per cent, to 11,569.61, with the losses led by financials, energy and materials.

Among the big-cap stocks that helped push the index down, Manulife Financial Corp. fell 4.61 per cent to $17.16, Bank of Nova Scotia dropped 3.81 per cent to $49.23, Teck Resources Ltd. was down 6.69 per cent to $32.77 and Suncor Energy Inc. was off 2.49 per cent to $32.46.

The junior TSX Venture composite was down 18.25 points, or 1.23 per cent, to 1,464.92.

The U.S. Labor Department said Friday there were 431,000 jobs added last month, less than the 536,000 that economists had expected. The vast majority of these new jobs were temporary positions for putting together the country`s next census

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B.C. to blame for lowered expectations

B.C. saw some of the biggest post-recession rebounds in real estate markets, so a recent cooling of sales in the province is a big reason the Canadian Real Estate Association revised its national housing market forecast to reflect lower sales and an easing of prices.

CREA, in its revised forecast released Wednesday, estimated B.C. sales will decrease almost six per cent to 80,000 transactions this year, a dramatic shift from the 101,900 sales in its initial forecast released in February.

Average prices, CREA estimates, will edge up 2.3 per cent this year to $476,400 before slipping back 3.5 per cent in 2011.

Nationally, CREA expects 490,600 sales through its Multiple Listing Service this year, a 5.5 per cent jump from 2009 and the second-highest number on record, but substantially off the 527,300 transactions it anticipated in its February forecast.

In a statement, CREA noted the revision "reflects a weaker-than-expected start to the year" in B.C. and developments in the mortgage market that pushed purchasers to buy homes sooner rather than later.

"They changed their forecast based on how much things have slowed down very recently," Tsur Somerville, a commerce professor at the University of B.C., said in an interview.

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Canadian companies fuel job growth

Canadian employers hired more workers than they fired for the fifth straight month in May, while south of the border a look behind the headline figures revealed an economy still struggling to boost employment, economists said.

The Canadian economy added 25,000 jobs in May, topping economists` forecasts for a gain of about 15,000, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The May gains follow a record-setting month in April. The private sector accounted for the bulk of the hiring taking on 43,400 workers in the period, it said.

"The sizeable gains in private-sector and full-time jobs bode well for Canada`s recovery as they show businesses are driving growth," BMO Capital Markets economist Benjamin Reitzes said in a note.

It was a different story in the U.S. where the 431,000 non-farm jobs added during the month came mainly from hiring for the government`s decennial census. Employment gains in the private sector were weaker-than-expected, sending stocks lower.

Canada`s economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than a decade in the first quarter as strong consumer spending and investment in property continued to fuel the recovery from last year`s recession. U.S. economic indicators have also pointed to a solid rebound, though are not translating into jobs growth, economists said.

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Canada catches break in campaign against bank tax

BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA—Ottawa has won a key battle in its campaign against a universal bank tax. G20 finance ministers agreed Saturday to let countries manage banks as they see fit rather than impose a tax on banks that would help pay for bailouts.

"It was apparent that most G20 members do not support the concept of a universal levy," said Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, whose government was opposed on the grounds its banks had not needed government intervention during the recent crises.

Instead, participants in the meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers said they agreed that a range of policy alternatives should be considered.

"The financial sector should make a fair and substantial contribution toward paying for any burdens associated with government interventions," the group said in a statement.

In a statement that will serve as an outline for talks later this month in Toronto, the G20 endorsed rescue policies for Europe and the need to rebalance growth by supporting more domestic demand and greater trade by developing countries.

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Canada `pumping out jobs,` employment report shows

A stronger than expected economy has led to more jobs being created across Ontario in May. The province saw an increase of 18,000 full-time positions, with growth over the past year slightly higher than the national average.

But the return of formerly discouraged workers to the labour market and an increase in the population means the unemployment rate remained persistently high.

Statistics Canada`s latest Labour Force Survey showed the boost in May brought employment gains in the province to 127,000 since July 2009, or an increase of 1.9 per cent compared to national growth of 1.8 per cent.

The unemployment rate in Ontario edged up 0.1 per cent, to 8.9 per cent.

Across the country employment was up 25,000 in May, the fifth consecutive month of reported job gains. Full-time positions were up 67,000 and were partly offset by losses of 43,000 part-time jobs. Full-time employment has made up the majority of gains since July 2009, the report showed.

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Building permits up 5.4% in Canada

The value of building permits across Canada rose by 5.4 per cent in May thanks to increases in commercial projects.

As the economy gains momentum the non-residential sector is picking up the slack as demand for retail, industrial and commercial space picks up, according to figures released by Statistics Canada Friday.

However, residential development was markedly down, another indication that the sector might be cooling off.

In the non-residential sector the value of permits rose for a third consecutive month in April, up 32.2 per cent to $2.8 billion.

The value of permits fell by 8 per cent from March to $3.9 billion, mostly due to declines in building of homes in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

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Dupuis: National housing agency deserves a fair shake

It`s not my job to defend the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, but when I read articles criticizing CMHC that make quantum statistical leaps while ignoring important facts as well as relevant differences between Canada and the U.S., I feel compelled to write.

Among the many positive roles that CMHC performs as Canada`s national housing agency, it insures mortgages against default by the borrower. Over the years, CMHC has helped millions of first-time homebuyers get over the initial downpayment hump. Virtually every buyer that CMHC has ever insured has eventually progressed into the conventional mortgage market and ultimately reached the goal of being mortgage-free.

Despite the fact that there is no evidence to suggest that Canadians are about to default en masse on their insured mortgages, the critics have been taking random pot shots at CMHC with the most recent attack published in this very paper last Sunday.

The critics tend to look at what has happened in the U.S. housing market, which is rife with foreclosures, as their critical point of departure. They are forgetting or ignoring a couple of very important differences between Canada and the U.S.

Yes, U.S. homeowners got caught by the double whammy of increasing interest rates and decreasing house prices, but they could scarcely afford the homes they had purchased in the first place.

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Why flipping is not investing in real estate

Building a real estate portfolio can mean working toward financial freedom – or it can mean taking risks that will give you more sleepless nights than days on the golf course.

The difference, according to Don Campbell, is cash flow.

"I would never buy a property that didn`t have positive cash flow," says Mr. Campbell, president of the Real Estate Investment Network. "A lot of people, unsophisticated investors, buy properties as if they were stocks – the only way they`re going to make money is if they rise in value."

Of course, it`s great if your properties do rise in value. But this is the "buy and pray" strategy, not the best for real estate investing, says Mr. Campbell, author of 81 Financial and Tax Tips for the Canadian Real Estate Investor, released in February.

Mr. Campbell`s advice is to look for properties in areas that have a future, not a past. And don`t make the mistake of thinking they have to be close to home. Look for places where the average income is increasing, where the population is growing faster than the provincial average, areas that are in transition and where there is spending on transportation infrastructure.

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