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June 2010

Ally

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News articles for June 2010.
 

Ally

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Canada Line races towards capacity

The new Canada Line is nearing capacity three years ahead of schedule, prompting TransLink to look at "tactical options" to help ease pressure on the 19-km route.

The line has been recording an average of 94,000 trips per day — just shy of its capacity of 100,000 riders, a number TransLink had not expected to reach until 2013. It now anticipates it could reach that number as early as next year.

While immediate options to ease overcrowding include running an extra train from Brighouse during peak periods, passengers won`t see any more trains running regularly between Vancouver and Richmond until the summer of 2011.

TransLink believes passenger numbers are higher than projected due in part to the Olympic need to get drivers off the roads, as well as a push to funnel suburban bus commuters to the new line.

"You make your projections on what you know ... years in advance of the project startup," TransLink spokesman Ken Hardie said. "It`s probably the Olympics that have been the key difference [between] what we were expecting and what we have."

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B.C. to blame for lowered expectations

B.C. saw some of the biggest post-recession rebounds in real estate markets, so a recent cooling of sales in the province is a big reason the Canadian Real Estate Association revised its national housing market forecast to reflect lower sales and an easing of prices.

CREA, in its revised forecast released Wednesday, estimated B.C. sales will decrease almost six per cent to 80,000 transactions this year, a dramatic shift from the 101,900 sales in its initial forecast released in February.

Average prices, CREA estimates, will edge up 2.3 per cent this year to $476,400 before slipping back 3.5 per cent in 2011.

Nationally, CREA expects 490,600 sales through its Multiple Listing Service this year, a 5.5 per cent jump from 2009 and the second-highest number on record, but substantially off the 527,300 transactions it anticipated in its February forecast.

In a statement, CREA noted the revision "reflects a weaker-than-expected start to the year" in B.C. and developments in the mortgage market that pushed purchasers to buy homes sooner rather than later.

"They changed their forecast based on how much things have slowed down very recently," Tsur Somerville, a commerce professor at the University of B.C., said in an interview.

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Metro Vancouver real estate edges off peak

VANCOUVER — Metro Vancouver real estate markets edged off their peaks in May with lower sales, more listings and prices flattening out after a record setting rebound, according to figures from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The board, on Friday, reported 3,156 sales through the Multiple Listing Service in May, down 10 per cent from May a year ago, but above sales in 2008.

At the same time, the board reported 7,014 new listings added to inventory in May, 48 per cent more than May 2009, but less than the 7,648 put on the market in April.

May was, however, the third month in a row more than 7,000 homes were added to the market, the board said, bringing total inventory to 17,492, 10 per cent more than in April making it a more relaxed place for house hunters.

"Realtors are telling us they`re working with buyers who are not feeling as rushed to make a decision as they did late last year and earlier [this] year," board president Jake Molodowan said in a news release.

And buyers appear to be bargaining harder as prices in a lot of areas edged down from recent highs.

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B.C. loses 10,000 jobs in May, bucking national trend

The British Columbia economy was the odd province out as Statistics Canada reported job numbers on Friday, shedding 10,000 mostly part-time jobs in May. B.C.`s unemployment rate also jumped, rising 0.2 percentage points during the month to 7.5 per cent.

That was in stark contrast with much of the rest of the country as the Canadian economy delivered "astonishing" employment figures that far surpassed expectations and may pressure the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates.

Nationally, 24,700 workers were added to payrolls in May. The jobs were mostly full-time and in the private sector, and were well above analysts` expectations for a 15,000-job gain.

"This should up the ante on further Bank of Canada hikes," said Derek Holt, vice-president of economics at Scotia Capital. "This is simply an astounding jobs report."

U.S. jobs data for May came in well below expectations, with 411,000 people added to payrolls versus an anticipated 533,000 gain. Particularly disappointing was that gains in private-sector employment, of 41,000, were little changed from the prior month.

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Fraser Valley real estate flattens out

METRO VANCOUVER — Buyers now have more control in the Fraser Valley real estate market due to more listings, fewer sales and lower prices in a lot of locations, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reported Thursday.

Fraser Valley board realtors recorded 1,477 sales through the Multiple Listing Service in May, down two per cent from May 2009 and down almost 18 per cent from April. New listings of 3,457 homes for sale topped May of 2009 by 23 per cent.

Fraser Valley board president Deanna Horn said that while May sales were 16 per cent below the board`s 10-year average, it still represented solid activity.

"Certainly we`ve got sales, they`re good, but people are taking their time to look," Horn said, adding that buyers are also negotiating harder on price.

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Value of major building projects in B.C. reaches record high of $191 billion

The value of major B.C. construction projects has reached an all-time high of $191.1 billion, according to Iain Black, minister of small business, technology and economic development.

"This is an excellent snapshot of the major projects that are planned, under construction or completed," Black said in an interview Thursday of the latest Major Projects Inventory released this week that shows construction is making an impact in all parts of the province with 896 major projects -triple the number in 2001.

"And it tells us a couple of things. It`s a solid indication of the confidence in our economy and of the government policies that are driving it."

According to the survey, the number of proposed projects also topped the charts at 547.

Projects cited in the survey have a capital cost of at least $20 million in the Lower Mainland and at least $15 million in the rest of B.C.

Black said it is encouraging to see that $752 million worth of clean energy projects are newly proposed throughout the regions, which will "strengthen job creation, economic development and B.C.`s reputation as a leader in the global low-carbon economy. And it`s a provincewide phenomena."

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Western Coal reopens Willow Creek mine

Western Coal Corp. has reopened its Willow Creek mine near Chetwynd two months ahead of schedule.

The company also announced an increase in the mine`s coal reserve to 29.6 million tonnes.

Keith Calder, Western`s president and CEO, said in an interview that all stakeholders involved in the project worked hard to get the mine opened early and that 300 new jobs will be created.

"The reason we`re opening now is that the operating team and the stakeholders saw this as extremely beneficial to northeast B.C. and made an effort to get it opened faster."

Calder said that higher coal prices also bode well for the mine, bought by Western in 2008 from Pine Valley Resources, which had closed it in 2007. Western reopened the mine for two months in 2008 before shutting it down because of the global financial crisis.

According to a news release, the mine will initially produce 900,000 tonnes of high-quality metallurgical coal per year. That is expected to rise to 1.7 million tonnes and create more than 300 jobs by 2012.

The mine opening is part of the company`s plans to take advantage of strong coal markets, become a major global metallurgical coal producer, and grow production in its northeast B.C. mines from 2.2 million tonnes to nearly six million tonnes by 2013.

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Realtors` group expects house prices to stop rising as quickly

Expect Canadian housing prices to wane slightly in 2011, then stabilize while people`s incomes and savings rise enough so they can afford to buy them, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Wednesday.

The prediction by the association`s chief economist Gregory Klump comes as banks are beginning to warn of potential declines of up to 10 per cent in housing values to bring prices in line with the incomes of potential buyers.

Klump said in an interview that he compiled the report to counter some of the banks` predictions.

"At this point in the housing-price cycle we`re forecasting that prices are going to sag a little bit next year, then stabilize," Klump said.

"And we expect to go through a period where these large price increases are largely behind us, and we expect prices to remain stable as incomes and savings catch up."

A major price correction, Klump said, would require a significant economic trigger, such as the recession that plagued the economy through 2008 and 2009 and resulted in prices dropping sharply.

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U.S. producers slam B.C. lumber fees

A coalition of U.S. lumber producers has accused the British Columbia government of implementing “abusive stumpage practices” that directly violate the U.S.-Canada softwood lumber agreement.

At issue are changes to stumpage fees that the province implemented on June 1 that the U.S. Coalition for Fair Lumber Imports said Friday are “in direct violation” of the agreement to the detriment of producers both in the U.S. and elsewhere in Canada.

Effective June 1, prices for many B.C. Interior timber stands on Crown land that are sold without competition will be based solely on the volume and quality of timber estimated by a “cruise” of the standing timber before harvest, the coalition said in a news release.

Until now, the B.C. government has required harvesters to scale or measure and grade timber after harvest in order to determine the payment due, the coalition said in a news release.

It cited B.C. government statistics showing that over the last two years more than 40 per cent of the B.C. Interior timber harvest has been graded “lumber reject” and therefore eligible for the minimum stumpage rate.

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Volumes nearly double at Prince Rupert port

The Port of Prince Rupert improved its performance in the first quarter of 2010, with shipment volumes up nearly 73 per cent. The port handled 4,119,708 tonnes in the first quarter 2010, compared to 2,383,510 tonnes in the same period in 2009. The surge in traffic was driven by a 217.9-per-cent jump in throughput at Ridley Terminals and an 84.3-percent increase at the Fairview Container Terminal.

The first-quarter performance follows the best year at the Port of Prince Rupert in 2009 since 1997. Export traffic through the Fairview Container Terminal grew 108.9 per cent for the first quarter 2010, leading the terminal to post an overall 87.3-per-cent increase in traffic to 76,860 TEUs, compared to 41,042 TEUs for January-March 2009.

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B.C. home prices to remain flat for 2010: Economist

Expect British Columbia`s property prices to remain flat for the balance of the year, which will be good news for buyers again being squeezed by the province`s sky-high values, according to the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Cameron Muir, the association`s chief economist, said sales have stabilized while inventories of unsold homes have risen, which is keeping pressure off prices.

Provincially, realtors processed some 8,385 units through the Multiple Listing Service in April, 21 per cent higher than the same month a year ago, but when figures are adjusted to account for seasonality, April sales were four per cent below March, according to Muir.

At the same time, provincial inventories hit 54,029 in April, some nine per cent more than in April of 2009.

"Overall there is more balance in the Lower Mainland and Victoria markets going forward and much less upward pressure on prices," Muir said in an interview.

"I anticipate prices will remain fairly flat for the rest of the year as a result of the countervailing forces of improving economy and job growth [offset] by affordability."

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Investors keen on Vancouver`s commercial property

Vancouver`s commercial real-estate sector is considered a great bet for investment, according to a survey released Tuesday by Colliers International.

The survey, which focuses on office, industrial and retail properties, also found that while Canadian institutional and private real-estate investors believe the market hasn`t yet reached its lowest point, they`re cautiously optimistic that a fast recovery will soon take shape.

While Colliers International`s 2010 Global Investor Sentiment Survey found that Canadian real-estate investors favour Toronto as the top property investment city in the country, Vancouver and Montreal came in second.

"It`s due to the fact that this market, largely because of geographic constraints, has always been able to maintain a reasonable balance between demand and supply of space," Kirk Kuester, managing director of Colliers International in Vancouver, said in an interview. "That translates into cash-flow security, which is what investors want.

"Vancouver is challenged by the ALR, the border, the mountains and the ocean, so it`s challenged in terms of adding supply of real estate. [Investors] are not at risk of a market becoming oversupplied very quickly."

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Vancouver to lead economic growth in 2010

The Olympic flame will continue to contribute to the healthy glow in Vancouver`s economy through the rest of this year, with the boost from the Winter Games helping it outpace all other Canadian cities in terms of economic growth, according to a Conference Board of Canada report released Wednesday.

The Olympics pumped an estimated $600 million into the West Coast city`s economy, which should grow by four per cent, the board said in its latest metropolitan outlook, which forecasts growth for 13 Canadian cities.

"The Olympic Games provided a big, even if temporary, boost to retail trade, arts, entertainment and recreation, accommodation and food services in Vancouver," Mario Lefebvre, the Conference Board`s director of municipal studies, said in a statement.

"All in all, the Olympics injected about $600 million into the Vancouver economy, lifting growth by about 0.8 percentage points.

"On top of that, demand for new homes in Vancouver began to recover at the end of last year, and that momentum has carried over into the first couple months of 2010."

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B.C. housing sales expected to ease this year but rise in 2011: Survey

VANCOUVER - Residential sales across the province are expected to ease by three per cent this year to 82,350 units before increasing four per cent in 2011 to 85,900 units, according to the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Waning demand, upward pressure on mortgage rates and tighter lending restrictions will moderate consumer demand this year, particularly in the Metro Vancouver, Victoria and the Fraser Valley areas, the association said in its second quarter housing forecast released Monday.

Improving economic conditions, however, are expected to counter-balance some of the erosion and stronger economic and employment growth next year will push home sales higher.

"The housing market will exhibit much more stability over the next 18 months," BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir said in an interview. "The erosion of affordability will be somewhat offset by improving economic conditions.

"This is largely due to pent-up demand during the recession being expended as well as higher pricing and tighter lending. That`s had an added impact on affordability."

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Campbell River mill will not reopen before 2011: union

CAMPBELL RIVER — Catalyst will not reopen its Campbell River mill any time soon, union executives said.

"The membership has absolutely no appetite to even vote on this agreement," said CEP Local 1123 president Ian Simpson after reviewing the latest company proposal for Elk Falls Mill.

"They saw what it was. They understand it isn`t a proposal about starting Elk Falls. It`s a proposal about gutting our collective agreement and intimidating and pressuring the other locals in the Catalyst group to do the same with theirs."

The union`s refusal to accept the company`s proposal means the mill won`t restart until next year if ever, Catalyst officials said.

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Metro Vancouver starts ease `in balance with market`: Report

VANCOUVER — The pace of new-housing construction in Metro Vancouver eased off in May from that of previous months yet remains at a level "in line with market conditions," Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Tuesday.

The national mortgage insurer counted 1,173 new homes across Metro Vancouver in May, a dramatic 150-per-cent improvement on the same month a year ago, which was still in the doldrums of B.C.`s housing downturn.

For the year to date at the end of May, builders have started work on 5,631 new homes, which is 103 per cent more than for the same period a year ago.

However, Robyn Adamache, Canada Mortgage and Housing`s senior analyst for Vancouver, said the annualized pace of construction, the estimate for the number of starts that will occur by the end of the year, had slowed some seven per cent compared with April.

Adamache said builders are likely taking their cue from the housing resale market where sales, while still brisk, have eased off their torrid pace of late 2009 and price gains have slowed.

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B.C. faces labour shortfall over next decade: Report

VANCOUVER — A new B.C. government report concludes that while the province faces a serious labour shortfall over the next 10 years, the Metro Vancouver area will be largely spared.

"Widespread tight labour market conditions, with labour demand exceeding labour supply, are expected to re-emerge in the next five years for the Vancouver Island/coast, Kootenay, Cariboo, north coast and Nechako, and northeast regions," according to the BC Labour Market Outlook, which looks at employment trends from 2009 to 2019.

"The Mainland/southwest region (Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Sunshine Coast and Squamish) is not anticipated to face widespread labour market tightness over the outlook period; this is largely due to its ability to attract a relatively high and stable level of migrants (including inter-provincial and international) over the projection period."

The report, issued by the Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, is a web-based, interactive report that provides users with labour market information in a given area. Fourteen industries and 140 occupations are profiled.

The report concludes that over the 10-year period, labour demand is expected to grow by 80,000 workers more than labour supply, with migrants expected to account for a larger share of the new labour supply than people entering the labour market provincially starting in 2016.

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Metro Vancouver new home prices post nation`s best rebound

VANCOUVER — Metro Vancouver`s new-home prices have followed the resale-home market upward to previous peaks during real estate`s rebound, developers and consultants have noted.

Statistics Canada reported on Thursday that by April the region posted the strongest year-over-year gain in new-home prices among the major markets it examines in its monthly new-housing price index.

Metro Vancouver saw prices edge up 0.4 per cent in April from March; they were six per cent higher than the same month a year ago.

"Year-over-year, for new, six per cent [up] sounds about right," Neil Chrystal, president of Polygon Homes Ltd., said in an interview. "Because the market really started moving last spring after a dreadful winter and fall."

Michael Ferreira, a principal at the consulting firm Urban Analytics, said that premiums are now creeping back into new-home prices over resale prices whereas a year ago developers had to discount prices to be more competitive with resale values.

Ferreira expects that situation could change in the coming months as sales in the resale market have cooled a bit and inventories of unsold homes have increased significantly.

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How tight should B.C. property tax cap be?

Business vs. residential taxes, and `capping the gap`




Should the province limit the property tax rate that municipalities can impose on business owners, who don`t vote, compared to residents, who do?

Most of the B.C. businesses surveyed recently by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business think it should. So do I. But we differ on how tight the cap should be.

A new CFIB report shows huge variation in the ratio of business and residential taxes. It ranges from well over six-to-one in places such as North Saanich and Revelstoke, to just one-to-one in Anmore, Bowen Island and Warfield.

In the past year, 24 per cent of municipalities increased this gap, 38 per cent reduced it and 39 per cent stayed the same. Overall, the average ratio has been narrowed from 2.97 to 2.94.

But over the past six years the picture is not rosy. Seventy-four per cent of municipalities have widened the gap, and just 14 per cent have narrowed it. The average has shot up from 2.42 to 2.94.

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