Kitchener or Edmonton?

[Thomas Beyer]

[quote user=housingrental].. As in my last post if resource prices fall it can have this impact. .. highest GDP growth is not a given - it could have the largest decline. .. The province might not have the highest in-migration in Canada


if .. could .. might !



indeed !





.. or not !!

 

[housingrental]

For sure Thomas, something we agree on

I think we just disagree if the odds are in favour of Alberta or not

 

[housingrental]

Exactly Thomas exactly

The future is not known for certain - and this includes Alberta!

When you set out expectations that growth is certain you risk blowing up

 

[Thomas Beyer]

[quote user=housingrental]Exactly Thomas exactly

The future is not known for certain - and this includes Alberta!

When you set out expectations that growth is certain you risk blowing up





nothing is CERTAIN.



However, some things are FAR MORE LIKELY than others such as:

a) oil over $120/barrel .. as opposed to below $50 .. thus continued job creation in AB and SK and parts of BC and NF

b) rising natural gas prices from a record low of $4 (slow but steady) as more gas will get consumed in the US due to low prices vs. coal or oil

c) continued pro-business governments thus favourable investment climate

d) continued lower than average unemployment rate

e) continued, above average wages

f) thus, continued in-migration for jobs, driving housing demand for both rental and new/used homes/condos

 

[billkeay]

This is a really good question. Let me tell you somethings I do know about KWC. Recently, I went to a CMHC rental market Update at the Waterloo Region Apartment Management Association they mentioned in their presentation that the vacancy rate in KWC was 2.6% as of October, 2010. The biggest age group in KWC is the renter age group from 25 years of age to 44 years of age. The gap between renting and owning a home is widening from $401 dollars in 2009 to $461 in 2010. On another positive note, employment is to increase slightly in 2011. Moreover, the rental housing demand will increase slightly in 2011!



There may be rental licensing in Waterloo for smaller properties under a fourplex, however, this does not include Kitchener or Cambridge and does not apply to apartment buildings or investment properties over a fourplex.



I think the biggest factor to consider when making a choice of where to invest is jobs and the local economy. CIBC world markets just indicated that Waterloo Region is fourth on their list and was only beat out by Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.



Last Sunday night I went to see the Banff Mountain Film festival at the University of Waterloo and I saw Jim Balsillie, one of the RIM founders who is a Billionaire, in attendance at the film. How many places can you go in the world and bump into a Billionaire at the movies? Was he using his Blackberry during the movie? I will never tell!

 

[housingrental]

We will have to disagree on assessments on what is "far more likely" especially a) and f)

Time will tell



[quote user=ThomasBeyer][quote user=housingrental]Exactly Thomas exactly

The future is not known for certain - and this includes Alberta!

When you set out expectations that growth is certain you risk blowing up




nothing is CERTAIN.



However, some things are FAR MORE LIKELY than others such as:

a) oil over $120/barrel .. as opposed to below $50 .. thus continued job creation in AB and SK and parts of BC and NF

b) rising natural gas prices from a record low of $4 (slow but steady) as more gas will get consumed in the US due to low prices vs. coal or oil

c) continued pro-business governments thus favourable investment climate

d) continued lower than average unemployment rate

e) continued, above average wages

f) thus, continued in-migration for jobs, driving housing demand for both rental and new/used homes/condos

 

[bizaro86]

[quote user=housingrental]We will have to disagree on assessments on what is "far more likely" especially a) and f)

Time will tell




Nope. Time won't tell you which outcome was more likely, it'll just tell you which outcome actually happened.



If you told me I was more likely to roll a number from 1-5 on a standard six sided die, and I actually rolled a 6, the outcome doesn't disprove the probability. Your statement was still correct.



This is the same thing. People can disagree about which outcome is more probable, but if they're both possible outcomes (and I think it's fair to say that they are both possible) then knowing after the fact which outcome actually occured doesn't change which one was in fact more probable.



Regards,



Michael

 

[housingrental]

Hi Michael

Yes time will tell what the actual outcome is

Not sure why you thought differently but that wasn't what I had intended...

 

[Rickson9]

nothing is CERTAIN.

However, some things are FAR MORE LIKELY than others such as:

a) oil over $120/barrel .. as opposed to below $50 .. thus continued job creation in AB and SK and parts of BC and NF

b) rising natural gas prices from a record low of $4 (slow but steady) as more gas will get consumed in the US due to low prices vs. coal or oil

c) continued pro-business governments thus favourable investment climate

d) continued lower than average unemployment rate

e) continued, above average wages

f) thus, continued in-migration for jobs, driving housing demand for both rental and new/used homes/condos

This thread reaffirms that nothing is certain