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March 2015 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for March 2015.
 

Ally

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Regular pendulum swing or
an issue? In many Canadian cities, unsold condos are stacking up


When the federal government tightened mortgage rules in 2012, overheated condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver were widely seen as the main target. But little more than two years later, it’s many smaller cities that are bearing the brunt of stricter regulations.

Winnipeg, Montreal and Moncton are grappling with a surplus of unsold condo units driven by a surge in new construction and a dwindling supply of first-time buyers in the wake of Ottawa’s decision in June, 2012, to limit mortgage insurance to amortization periods of 25 years or less from 30 years.

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Developers use farms to lure homebuyers

American builders have a long history of bulldozing farms to make way for housing developments. Now developers are starting farms to sell homes. Harvest, a $1 billion “urban agrarian” community being built by H. Ross Perot Jr.’s Hillwood Development in Texas, hired a farmer to cultivate vegetables before construction began on a planned 3,200 houses. Willowsford, a community of 2,130 homes in Virginia’s Loudoun County, set aside 2,000 acres of green space, including 300 acres for raising fruit, vegetables, chickens, and goats. Developer DMB integrated produce fields and edible gardens into projects in Arizona, California, and Hawaii.

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Economy slows to 2.4% amid late 2014 oil plunge, but still better than expected

The Canadian economy slowed to a 2.4 per cent annual growth rate in the last three months of 2014 — but still performed better than economists had expected.

The stronger than anticipated reading released Tuesday for the autumn period of falling oil prices was yet another sign the Bank of Canada could abstain from cutting its key interest rate at this week’s announcement.

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Manufacturing drives the Canadian economy to a strong finish in 2014

The manufacturing sector almost singlehandedly drove GDP higher in December, helping the Canadian economy end the year on a positive note. Real GDP grew by 0.3 per cent to close out the year, helping to erase the memory of a 0.2 per cent contraction the previous month.

For the year as a whole, the Canadian economy expanded by 2.4 per cent. While unspectacular, that rate of annual growth is the best Canada has seen since 2011.

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Canadian dollar passes 80 cents after GDP report

TORONTO -- The Canadian dollar moved higher Tuesday after the latest data on the domestic economy showed growth came in better than expected.

The loonie ended the day ahead 0.28 of U.S. cent to 80.06 cents.

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Buffet criticizes Keystone XL delay

The Keystone XL pipeline got an emphatic endorsement Monday from a powerful backer of President Barack Obama who questioned the handling of the file.

To billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the delay is a thumbing of the nose at Canada.

“I would have passed Keystone,” Buffett said in an interview with CNBC.

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More than half of Canadians have never checked their credit score

Many Canadians are unaware how their behaviour may be affecting their overall credit standing, according to a Bank of Montreal report released Friday.

The survey, conducted by Pollara, found that 56% of Canadians say they have never checked their credit score and only 14% check at least once a year. One-fifth believe that checking their credit score can decrease it.

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How to take advantage of opportunities in a flat market

In a real estate market that has been chugging along year after year with continued job growth, population growth, increased GDP and a friendly lending environment, opportunities to make money in real estate were everywhere.

It was very simple, actually – buy a piece of cash-flowing real estate and wait a few years. After those few years, sell for a profit and live happily ever after. The end.

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CIBC says Canadian job quality sinks to record low

TORONTO — Job quality in Canada is now at a record low and showing little sign it will turn around in the near future, according to CIBC’s Canadian Employment Quality Index.

The index, which measures the quality of employment from a compensation perspective, shows declines in all measures and indicates the drop in Canadian job quality is more structural than cyclical, and likely can’t be reversed by monetary policy.

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Strong outlook for North American industrial market

The connections and interdependence among the economies of the United States, Canada and Mexico reflect in how closely their markets are trending, with key sectors like e-commerce, manufacturing, technology and energy fueling progress across the board.

“Greater Los Angeles boasted a 3.4% vacancy rate, and with 40 msf of leasing activity in 2014 - the strongest leasing activity on record for this market – it ranked first in leasing in the U.S.,” said Tina Arambulo, managing director, U.S. Industrial Research, for Cushman & Wakefield in Los Angeles.

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Great news for those
fearing oversupply coming: Housing starts fall sharply in February to lowest
levels since 2009


Canadian housing starts fell much more sharply than expected in February, a move that may have been aggravated by severe winter weather, data showed on Monday.

A report from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. showed the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts fell to 156,276 units last month from a downwardly revised 187,025 in January. That fell short of the 180,000 economists had expected.

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Canadian housing starts down in February

OTTAWA — The rate of new home construction in Canada slowed in February to its slowest pace since July 2009, with much of the country caught in a deep winter freeze.

Royal Bank economist Laura Cooper said the bulk of the weakness was concentrated in Ontario and Atlantic Canada where extreme cold and severe snow storms dominated in the month.

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Condo construction falls sharply in February

Canada’s federal housing agency said Monday the annual pace of new housing construction slowed materially in February, with far fewer multiple-unit projects such as condos and apartments breaking ground.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said the seasonally adjusted annual rate of home starts decreased to 156,276 units last month, down from 187,025 in January — and below estimates held by experts for 179,000 units.

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Housing market is undervalued, says housing developer

Ben Myers is the Senior VP of Market Research & Analytics at Fortress Real Developments and author of "Market Manuscript" analyzes the real estate market across Canada. He is seeing some interesting trends including lower oil having little impact on housing and the market being undervalued. We get his insights on Business Day.

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Canadian dollar gets a bump from GDP data, ahead of central bank rate decision

TORONTO - The Canadian dollar moved higher Tuesday after the latest data on the domestic economy showed growth came in better than expected.

The loonie ended the day ahead 0.28 of U.S. cent to 80.06 cents.

Statistics Canada says that domestic economic growth slowed to 2.4 per cent in the final three months of last year. The data was stronger than economists had expected for a period where rapidly declining oil prices weighed heavily on growth.

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Best deals in real estate in 2015

Thinking about buying real estate in Canada this year? Get ready for a carnival. But instead of using bright lights and loud noises to distract would-be customers, the housing market relies on ever-increasing prices and the promise of future wealth to entice and awe.

Leaving a carnival a few bucks short isn’t a big deal, but make the wrong choice in today’s housing market and you could end up in a scary financial place, as sky-high prices continue to climb. Consider the Toronto market: Despite predictions the market would finally cool, sales in Canada’s largest city surged dramatically in the first two months of 2015, with the average home price jumping more than 10% year-over-year.

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Study says average rent $859

Cities like Kamloops, Kelowna and Prince George might not make headlines for their high costs of living with the frequency of Vancouver, but a new study argues it can be as tough to find shelter in B.C.’s smaller communities as it is on the Lower Mainland.

The report from the Social Planning and Research Council of B.C. (SPARC B.C) studied five communities, including Kamloops, looking at issues such as available housing stock, average rent and challenges facing the communities’ poorest families.

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One fifth of local area employers set to hire

With February employment numbers coming out Friday, a new national survey bodes well for job creation in the London area.

A quarterly survey by the Manpower Group shows 20% of employers in the London area plan to hire in the next three months, while 3% expect cutbacks.

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OPEC is still kicking, but the World Bank thinks the oil cartel's days could be numbered

As OPEC ’s refusal to curb oil production contributes to a nine-month plunge in prices, a new paper suggests the cartel’s days may be numbered.

OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has vowed to defend its market share against higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale drillers and companies developing Canada’s oil sands. Its strategy hinges on the odds that an extended period of low prices will lead other producers to scale back output, enabling the group to reassert its influence.

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