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May 2010

Ally

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News articles for May 2010.
 

Ally

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Western provinces to form a common market

Canada`s three westernmost provinces are betting there will be economic benefits in setting themselves up as a common market through the reconciliation of regulations among themselves and cooperation on international trade initiatives.

British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell, Saskatchewan`s Premier Brad Wall and Alberta`s Premier Ed Stelmach signed the New West Partnership agreement Friday in Regina, a follow up from a promise they made in a joint cabinet meeting held in Vancouver a year ago, which will unroll cooperative efforts from 2011-13.

It will start as the three premiers conduct a joint trade mission to Japan and China in May.

The next step will see the three provinces enter into a common procurement system for tendering purchases on some $8 billion in annual spending between them, in areas such as pharmaceuticals and school supplies, starting in 2011.

And along the way, the provinces have agreed to reconcile regulations in transportation, labour, business registration and financial services through 2012 and 2013.

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A Post-Olympic dawn

What`s next?

Now that the Olympic Games are a memory, that`s the biggest question hanging over British Columbia`s economy, its politics and broader society.

What do we do from here out? What will be the catalyst to take Vancouver and the province to the next level of economic and social development?

Big questions. Surprisingly, there`s no consensus on what that catalyst will be, other than it`s not going to be another mega-event like the Olympics. What we need is a slate of public policy ideas and a vision, if you will, that will reshape the economic engine over a generation.

Despite the success of the Olympics, we`re not in as great a shape as you might think here in Canada`s westernmost province. Here are some of the facts, taken out of the Business Council of B.C.`s recent paper, Outlook 2020: Shaping B.C.`s Economic Future:

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Don`t like the HST? Fine, what`s your alternative?

I`ve been travelling for most of a month, and had a lot to catch up on when I got home. Reading the pronouncements from critics of the harmonized sales tax (and they are legion), I`ve been struck by how much they say against this tax plan and how little they say about how the B.C. government ought to raise revenue instead.

I didn`t need much persuading, but a thoughtful piece by Jonathan Kesselman, a clear-eyed and even-handed tax guru at Simon Fraser University, convinced me that the status quo - the current PST - isn`t worth fighting to retain.

It is well documented that this kind of tax stifles economic growth, and this particular tax is rife with ambiguities and inequities that result from a complicated web of exemptions and exceptions. (For example, my shirt would be PST-exempt if I lied when I bought it and said it was for a teen. Or I could get a provincial tax break on a red raincoat, but not a yellow one. And on and on ...)

And even though I`m somewhat persuaded by those who argue we are taxed too much, I can`t ignore that there have been substantial tax cuts both provincially and federally in recent years. My colleague Craig McInnes made an interesting case last week that the real tax burden - as measured by how much discretionary income we have left after paying the unavoidable bills - has gone down, not up, over recent decades.

Bill Vander Zalm, the self-styled knight in shining armour who`s leading the anti-HST charge and a former premier who knows a lot about spending money, acknowledges that the government needs sales tax revenue.

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Increasing inventories helps take pressure off

April was a continuation of the trend that has seen sales ease off in Lower Mainland real estate markets and listings rise, which has taken a lot of the pressure off property prices, one economist said Tuesday.

Both the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Real Estate Board released April sales figures Tuesday showing higher sales than a year ago when markets were just emerging from their doldrums, but a less frenzied pace of transactions than at the end of 2009.

"What I`ve been watching is a market that has returned to where you would think the market should stand just now coming out of a recession," said Cameron Muir, chief economist for the British Columbia Real Estate Association.

Muir said those people looking to buy homes as B.C. came out of the recession have largely made their purchases. From here on in, he expects that rising interest rates and stricter mortgage qualifications will crimp the ability of new buyers to get into the market.

The net result, he added, is that prices "will likely face little upward pressure for the balance of the year."

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Investors keen on Vancouver`s commercial property

Vancouver`s commercial real-estate sector is considered a great bet for investment, according to a survey released Tuesday by Colliers International.

The survey, which focuses on office, industrial and retail properties, also found that while Canadian institutional and private real-estate investors believe the market hasn`t yet reached its lowest point, they`re cautiously optimistic that a fast recovery will soon take shape.

While Colliers International`s 2010 Global Investor Sentiment Survey found that Canadian real-estate investors favour Toronto as the top property investment city in the country, Vancouver and Montreal came in second.

"It`s due to the fact that this market, largely because of geographic constraints, has always been able to maintain a reasonable balance between demand and supply of space," Kirk Kuester, managing director of Colliers International in Vancouver, said in an interview. "That translates into cash-flow security, which is what investors want.

"Vancouver is challenged by the ALR, the border, the mountains and the ocean, so it`s challenged in terms of adding supply of real estate. [Investors] are not at risk of a market becoming oversupplied very quickly."

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Fraser Valley real estate gets near-record bump

The Fraser Valley`s real estate market saw a flood of new listings in April that took the region to near record levels of inventory, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reported Tuesday.

Sales also remained elevated compared with the same month a year ago, with the board recording 1,793 sales through the Multiple Listing Service, some 39 per cent higher than April of 2009, when the market was just emerging from the recession-induced housing downturn.

"We received an abundance of new listings in all price categories giving buyers tremendous opportunity," Fraser Valley board president Deanna Horn said in a news release.

Sellers, Horn added, saw prices that were 13-per-cent higher than the same month a year ago with the benchmark price for detached homes, an average of typical homes sold, hit $520,423 in April compared with $460,299 a year ago.

The selection buyers had to choose from was bolstered by a 3,760-unit surge of new listings into the inventory of unsold homes. That was 52 per cent more than was added to the inventory in April 2009.

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Oilsands-to-B.C. pipeline to go ahead

Enbridge Inc. is plowing ahead with a controversial pipeline from Alberta`s oilsands to the inside passage port of Kitimat, B.C., chief executive Pat Daniel said Wednesday.

The $5.5-billion Northern Gateway project faces heated opposition from aboriginal and environmental groups because of the possibility of a spill on land or sea -- concerns that have deepened as bands of sticky oil approach the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline following a deepsea-rig explosion.

Enbridge came up with the concept to open new markets for Canadian crude and reduce the country`s dependence on trade with the United States, Daniel said at the company`s annual meeting.

"We`re doing it because it`s important for Canada, for our economy, for our energy security and for our nation`s role as a significant player on the world stage," he said.

The key driver for the 525,000-barrel-per-day pipeline is to open new markets for producers by 2016, rather than increase pipeline capacity, Daniel said.

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Parents see value in buying condos for kids: Poll

If you`re a young adult looking for a condo, it might be best to approach your parents and just ask for one.

That`s one of the findings of TD Canada Trust`s Condo Poll, which shows Vancouverites not only see condos as a source of long-term income, but that 13 per cent -- tied with Montreal for the highest in the country -- would consider buying one for their adult children either to own or use.

"The number-one point [in this survey] is that Vancouverites believe condos provide good, affordable accommodation," said Barry Rathburn, B.C. mobile mortgage specialist for TD Canada Trust, in an interview Wednesday. "It`s also interesting that 47 per cent of Vancouverites would invest in a condo, [mainly] for rental income. That`s the highest in the country."

The high number of Vancouverites who would buy a condo for their children speaks to the fact that a lot of people in Vancouver have an urban lifestyle "that includes condo living," Rathburn said.

A large number of parents now help their kids buy their first homes, perhaps with a down payment, so he said he wasn`t surprised by the survey findings.

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Forecaster picks B.C., Ontario to lead economic growth

OTTAWA—The Conference Board of Canada is predicting that Ontario and British Columbia will have the country`s fastest-growing economies this year.

The private-sector economic forecaster says both provinces will see their economies grow by 3.8 per cent over last year.

Last year was especially hard on Ontario, because of problems in the auto industry and the broader manufacturing sector.

British Columbia wasn`t as hard-hit in 2009 because of preparations for the Winter Olympics in February of this year and the solid performance of its resource industries.

The Conference Board says there are clear signs of economic recovery from last year`s general economic downturn, but the rebound will be uneven across the country.

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Secondary homes will bear the primary cost of HST

COLLINGWOOD—Unless you are planning to make it your permanent home, purchasing a new ski chalet, a new weekend condo, or a new cottage will get a lot more expensive when the harmonized sales tax comes into effect July 1. The tax will add tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of a new second home.

Last summer, after vigorous lobbying from developers, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), and the Ontario Home Builders` Association, the province backtracked on charging the HST on the full cost of a new home priced at more than $400,000 by introducing a housing rebate of up to $24,000. The catch is that to qualify for the rebate, the home has to be a primary residence.

"If it`s a new ski chalet, it will be subject to HST with no rebate," says Scott Blodgett of the Ministry of Finance.

The same goes for a new cottage on a Muskoka lake, a new condominium at developments such as the Village at Blue Mountain or Red Leaves in Muskoka, a new home in a golfing community or any new home in Ontario, if it`s not going to be a primary residence.

"There`s no doubt that it`s a blow for the industry," says Frank Giannone, president of FRAM, the company developing the Shipyards Harbour Residences in Collingwood. "It`s going to have a significant effect on the second-home market."

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B.C., Ontario to lead in Canadian economic growth this year: Conference Board

OTTAWA — B.C. and Ontario will share top spot in Canadian economic growth this year, as labour markets continue their recovery, consumers begin spending on big-ticket items again and the auto sector rebounds, the Conference Board of Canada said Monday.

In its Canadian Provincial Outlook — Spring 2010, the board says the economy in B.C. and Ontario will expand at 3.8 per cent this year.

"There are clear signs of economic recovery from cost to coast," said Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director of provincial forecasting. "The improved domestic economies of Ontario and B.C., along with increased demand from the United States, will support a strong rebound in both provinces.

"However the rebound will be gradual for most other provinces, spreading over the next two years," Bernard said.

B.C.`s economy will benefit from the one-time Olympics boost, as well as a recovery in forestry, manufacturing and construction sectors. But with the Olympics out of the way, and housing growth expected to ease, growth will slow to 2.8 per cent in 2011, the board adds.

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Canada`s forest industry on `threshold of a very significant recovery`: forestry executive

VANCOUVER — Canada`s forest industry is on the verge of a strong recovery, although a focus on expanding new markets remains vital, the CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada said Monday.

"The Canadian industry is at the threshold of a very significant recovery," Avrim Lazar said in an interview. "But fully realizing that transformation requires continued transformation."

Lazar, who is scheduled to address the PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Forest and Paper Industry Conference in Vancouver on Tuesday, cited four central themes that will necessitate that change: productivity increases; less reliance on the U.S. housing market; utilizing more value from every harvested tree; and better translating Canada`s environmental performance into marketplace advantages throughout the world.

Lazar said that although Canada should focus on other global markets, the strong U.S. housing market is steadily improving — and that bodes well for Canada`s forest industry.

"We`re expecting a long, slow steady improvement [in U.S. demand for Canadian lumber]. People still live in wood frame housing. The increase [in demand] will be gradual, but it will return. It`s definitely in progress, no doubt."

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Provincial recovery well underway, reports confirm

A cascade of good business news confirms the recession is now history in B.C. and the recovery is well underway.

Two major tech players announced this week they are taking up significant office space in Vancouver, as global financial data cruncher KPMG announced the host of the 2010 Winter Games now offers the best business tax climate of 41 cities measured around the world.

That news comes amid a flurry of first quarter reports from Vancouverbased companies showing significant improvements over their performances during the depths of the recession one year ago, some even reporting complete turnarounds from red ink to black. And a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers shows B.C.`s vital mining industry rode out the recession with a collective profit of over $2 billion, positioning it well for an anticipated increase in commodities demand.

That came just days after the head of Canada`s forest industry said the U.S. housing market recovery is steadily improving.

The United States is the biggest customer of B.C. lumber.

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B.C. mining poised for `economic renaissance`

VANCOUVER — The mining industry can substantially increase its value to the British Columbia economy if governments can find a way to streamline the regulatory system that confronts new projects, Mining Association of B.C. president Pierre Gratton said today.

"Let`s be clear — we are not disputing the need for stringent environment standards and robust environmental reviews," Gratton said in a prepared speech at a Vancouver board of trade luncheon.

The board of trade event is held in recognition of Mining Week, which has been a tradition in B.C. for 103 years, Gratton said.

B.C. is globally positioned to take advantage of an "economic renaissance" in Asian markets, notably China and India, if it can find a way to efficiently get mines into production, he said.

"The world needs B.C. mines as much as B.C. needs the contributions they make to the economy, which has been buffeted by weakness in forestry, construction and other industry sectors," Gratton said.

"But this wave of demand for metals and commodities comes at a time when the regulatory environment for new mine development is increasingly restrictive.

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Vancouver tops list of best business tax climates

Two major tech players announced this week they are taking up significant office space in Vancouver, as global financial data cruncher KPMG announced the host of the 2010 Winter Games now offers the best business tax climate of 41 cities measured around the world.

That news comes amid a flurry of first quarter reports from Vancouver-based companies showing significant improvements over their performances during the depths of the recession one year ago, some even reporting complete turnarounds from red ink to black. And a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers shows B.C.`s vital mining industry rode out the recession with a collective profit of over $2 billion, positioning it well for an anticipated increase in commodities demand.

That came just days after the head of Canada`s forest industry said the U.S. housing market recovery is steadily improving.

The United States is the biggest customer of B.C. lumber.

"The recession is over and we`re in the relatively early stages of what looks to be a fairly decent recovery," Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of B.C., said in an interview after the Conference Board of Canada on Monday predicted 3.8-per-cent growth for the provincial economy this year.

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We`re digging out, but the hole was pretty deep

I know we journalists can be as fickle as the stock market when we react (or over-react) to the concern du jour.

We can do endless 180s -- flipping from fretting about too little of a good thing to too much, from too high a price or indicator to too low.

So I want to broach today`s topic a bit gingerly. But, given all the good news about B.C.`s economy of late, are we destined for another bout of the problems of prosperity -- the labour shortages, runaway construction costs, rapid population growth, housing shortages and all that?

I`m guessing the answer is maybe, but not real soon.

Most forecasters didn`t expect it so soon or so strong, but our economy is recovering. Newly revised growth forecasts for Canada in 2010 are all well north of 3.5 per cent, which is about as good as it gets for a wealthy, developed country like ours. Even better, B.C. is leading the pack.

"But you have to remember how deep the hole was in 2009," says Jock Finlayson, the executive vice-president for of the Business Council of B.C.

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Buyers look to take charge in recreational property market

With spring offering the promise of sunshine and thoughts of summer cottages, the performance of British Columbia`s recreational real estate market will depend on how well sellers appeal to a new, finely honed sense of value among buyers, according to one consultant.

Coming out of the recession, the recreational sector has left behind the headier days of 2002 to 2007 when buyers felt flush and worried more about missing out on opportunities to jump into a dream property, according to Scott Brown, the senior vice-president of Colliers Residential Services.

And with the marketing push for 2010 beginning, Brown said developers can expect to have to bargain hard to clear out existing inventories that built up during the recession.

"People`s interest is back, [but] it`s not crazy interest," Brown said in an interview on Thursday.

Now, however, a property buyer`s biggest fear is, " `Am I paying too much, and is this a bad time to buy, and am I going to look stupid?` "

From what Brown saw in 2009, when buyers began to trickle back into the market, those developers who can price products in the $300,000 to $500,000 range will likely do the best.

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In the `New West,` B.C. and Vancouver stand to prosper

The West`s three amigos are off to China.

Premier Gordon Campbell, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach and Saskatchewan`s Premier Brad Wall are joining forces on a trade trip to the Middle Kingdom. It`s the latest manifestation of a budding regional partnership, to present Canada`s resource-rich provinces to commodities-hungry Asia as a powerful, regional trading bloc.

It`s taken generations to get Canada`s three western provinces to this point of unity. Lets hope it`s a trend.

It was only two years ago that Alberta and British Columbia put together TILMA -- the Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement, to try to eliminate inefficient trade and labour restrictions between the two provinces.

Two weeks ago in Regina, the West`s three amigos expanded that idea by creating "the New West partnership," to present Canada`s West to the world as a united trading and economic bloc.

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B.C. April property sales higher, but off 2009`s frenetic pace

As was seen in the Lower Mainland, British Columbia as a whole saw April real estate sales dramatically higher than a year ago, but off the frenetic pace seen in the last quarter of 2009, the B.C. Real Estate Association reported Friday.

B.C. realtors processed some 8,385 units through the Multiple Listing Service in April, 21-per-cent higher than the same month a year ago, but when figures are adjusted to account for seasonality April sales were four per cent below March, according to Cameron Muir, the association`s chief economist.

"Higher home prices, particularly in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Victoria as well as a recent lift in mortgage interest rates has eroded affordability and had an impact on overall housing demand," Muir said in a news release.

The average home price across the province was $514,820 in April, some 15 per cent higher than the same month a year ago.

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