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May 2014 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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CMHC to trim its mortgage insurance total





Ca nada Mor tgage & Housing Corp. said Monday in its annual report it
plans to have $545 billion in so-called mortgage insurance in force this year as
repayments offset new policies. CMHC, which insures homeowners against default,
said its insurance in force as of Dec. 31 fell 1.6 per cent from a year earlier
to $557 billion.





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The bedrock of Canada's economy has shifted





OTTAWA ` A decade-plus shift in the bedrock of Canada`s economy ` both in product and location ` may not be over yet.





The `considerable structural change` in what we make and where we make it since 2000 is very much apparent today: a declining manufacturing sector and growing reliance on resource-based industries have shaped our economy in ways we might not have expected.





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Europe softens stance on Canada's oil sands as relations with Russia sour





As Europe reels from Moscow`s belligerence and utter dependence on its oil and gas supplies, the Harper government is positioning itself as a reliable partner ready to offer energy security to the continent.





In his first international assignment, Canada`s Natural Resources Minister Greg Rickford was out in full force advertising the country`s formidable crude oil and natural gas resources to energy ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Japan, U.K. and U.S. in Rome on Tuesday.





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OECD urges rate hike in Canada as outlook brightens





OTTAWA ` Economic data in Canada can be far from predictable.

Exports were expected to gain traction this year, which appeared to be happening in February ` only to see the country`s trade surplus shrink a month later. Likewise, the labour market continues to fluctuate and frustrate, reflecting uneasiness with the growth pattern of the economy itself.





Still, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is more optimistic about Canada`s near-term performance than many of our own policymakers and private-sector analysts.





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Global economy meets great Moderation 2.0





The global economy is rebooting for `Great Moderation 2.0.`





Barely five years after the worst financial turmoil and recession since the Great Depression, the U.S. and fellow advanced nations are showing a stability in output growth and hiring last witnessed in the two decades prior to the crisis, in an era dubbed the `Great Moderation.` The lull points to a worldwide economic expansion that will endure longer than most.





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CMHC aims to slow condo investors





Canada's housing market is like a brush fire. Just when you think you have it under control, the wind blows and it sparks up again. But regulators may have picked up the right tool to put out what's left of the blaze.





Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
reported Thursday morning that housing starts surged to an annualized rate of 195,000 units (seasonally adjusted) in April, up 25 per cent from March. After spending several months in a retreat (from north of 200,000 to March's 157,000) that experts generally considered overdue and quite healthy, we're suddenly right back up where we started - at levels above the pace of new-household formation, and, therefore, unsustainable. And yet it goes on.





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Loonie at four-month high








The currency gained 0.61 of a cent to 92.4 cents US as Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported that housing starts came in at an annualized rate of 195,000 in April, higher than the 175,000 that economists had expected.





Meanwhile, Statistics Canada is expected to report the economy created about 16,000 jobs last month.





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Canadian housing starts pick up in April





TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Canadian housing starts picked up more than expected in April, data showed on Thursday, supporting expectations that the housing market is stabilizing.





A report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp showed the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts rose to 194,809 last month from 156,592 units in March. That surpassed analysts' expectations for a gain to 175,000.





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No May Day for spring mortgage rates





TORONTO, May 8, 2014 /CNW/ ` May will bring flowers ` but there`s no growth in store for the Canadian cost of borrowing. Stable bond yields and a competitive spring market lead to status quo for fixed mortgage rates in the short term. Variable mortgage rates, however, aren`t to change until 2016 as exports and inflation remain below the Bank of Canada`s forecast.





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Jobs data released among added scrutiny





OTTAWA ` Statistics Canada is unveiling its monthly jobs numbers today at a time when the federal government`s labour data is under heightened scrutiny.





The Labour Force Survey comes just days after the auditor general`s spring report found Statcan`s job-vacancy survey too vague, concluding the figures provided little value to governments and other users.





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Real estate agents test cyber boundaries





Realtors in Ontario are hoping that people will soon be able to buy a house without putting pen to paper.





Electronic signatures, or e-signatures, are now accepted for a wide variety of purposes in Canada and are legally enforceable. But buying a home is an exception in some provinces and territories, including Ontario, where the legal framework says you still need a so-called "wet" signature. You cannot legally seal the deal online or by e-mail.





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If you think you're not beating inflation by much, it's because you're not





If you think you`re not doing that much better than inflation when it comes to your pay, it`s because you`re not.





And at some point, that could become an issue for the economy.





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Canada sheds full-time jobs, dollar takes a hit





Canada`s job market continued its volatile trend in April, shedding 28,900
positions when most analysts had expected at least a moderate gain.





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Don't rule out multi-family investments





Over the past few years, institutional investors have gobbled up the available stock of desirable single-family rentals in many markets. Rather than compete with these large investment companies, why not try multifamily investment?





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Oil exports by rail rising





CALGARY ` New National Energy Board data shows oil-by-rail exports have risen ninefold in less than two years, but they`re still far eclipsed by what`s moving by pipeline ` and by what the stalled Keystone XL alone aims to carry.





The Canadian energy regulator`s figures released Monday show more than 146,000 barrels per day were exported on trains in the last three months of 2013, compared with just under 16,000 in the first three months of 2012.





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Too many buildings and not enough people





The Calgary Herald reports from Canada. `The average Calgary homeowner is expecting a 47 per cent return on investment on their property, according to a new poll released by BMO. The report said 33 per cent of Calgary homeowners believe their property has doubled in value from the time of purchase. At the national level, the BMO poll said the average homeowner in Canada expects a 62 per cent return on investment on their property. Canadian homeowners believe they could sell their current home for an average of $369,968 ` an increase of $141,686.`





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Canada's condo developers squeezing more function out of tiny spaces





Vancouver-area developer broke ground last week on a condo project that claims to be `the world`s first fully transformable homes built in a large-scale condo development.`






The idea is to enable condo residents to do more in less space. The island in the kitchen can be extended into a full-sized dining table. The TV slides over so that a built-in daybed sofa can be pulled down. The master bed folds up into the wall, so that the bedroom can be used as a living room.





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Falling unemployment rate 'overstates' the job recovery, BoC says





OTTAWA ` Canada`s official unemployment rate is among the most watched economic indicators by markets and policy-makers, but it may be overestimating the actual health of the country`s labour market, according to the Bank of Canada.





The central bank says in a new research paper that unemployment rates have `overstated` the jobs recovery in Canada and particularly in the U.S. because they fail to capture a complete picture of what is happening in the labour market.





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Sears Holdings considers selling majority stake or whole of Sears Canada





All or part of beleaguered Sears Canada Inc. could be sold after its U.S. majority owner said Wednesday it wants to divest its 51% stake in the company.





The long expected move from Sears Holdings Corp., whose sales performance has spiraled since chairman Eddie Lampert merged it with Kmart in 2005, puts Sears Canada`s 176 stores up for grabs to private equity interests or other retail players such as Target.





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Spring selling season gets off to a limp start as Canada's home prices gain least since recession





TORONTO ` Canadian resale home prices rose in April, but the start of the hotly anticipated spring selling season appeared milder than usual, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed on Wednesday.





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