Mountain Pine Beetle`s Devastating Effect on Real Estate

DonCampbell

Investor, Analyst, Author, Philanthropist
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REIN Member
Aug 22, 2007
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#1
Hi,
The Mountain Pine Beetle`s Effect on Real Estate Report is ready for release.

Click Here to download the full report

The 8 month research project is completed and the report ready for full release, and the news is not the greatest for many regions in the West. Below is the press release covering the report. You can download the complete 25 page report www.reincanada.com (the download link is right near the top of the page) or you can go direct to the attachment to this post (it`s a large file so be patient with the download, or zip over to www.reincanada.com to try there).

If you are in the forestry industry, it would be great to hear your observations. This report has been released with one single premise, to get this critical topic on the top of mind for ALL politicians who can fund the support this is going to require.
The local mayors and council are trying to raise awarness with the Federal Government, with limited luck. So please use the facts in this report to bring your own Local MP up to speed on this problem.

Let`s focus on what we can do, rather than what we can`t do.

We have a 5 to 7 year window to do something drastic in some of these towns, there is no time to sit and wait.

Mountain Pine Beetle Research Report Reveals Future Negative Impact on Real Estate Values in Affected Regions

Quesnel, Williams Lake and Prince George are cities most affected



Vancouver, B.C. — The Real Estate Investment Network (REIN), Canada`s largest real estate research, education and investment organization, has today released a detailed analysis of how the mountain pine beetle infestation is likely to affect real estate values in the B.C. interior over the next decade.

The report, titled How Global Warming & the Pine Beetle Could Devastate the B.C. Interior`s Real Estate Markets, found that real estate values will be most negatively affected in Quesnel, Prince George and Williams Lake. Secondary impacts will be felt in Kamloops and Merritt, and in Alberta as the pine beetle begins its march eastward to invade pine forests right across the country. Global warming is one possible cause, as warming winter temperatures reduce the length of the periods of sub-zero freezing weather required to kill off the pine beetles each year.

"Our research found that the accelerated harvest of the pine beetle infested wood has caused an economic boom and is artificially raising real estate prices in cities that are forestry centers like Quesnel, Prince George and Williams Lake," said Don Campbell, president of REIN and the report`s lead author. "However, when the harvest and local boom runs its course in about five to seven years, the whole buildup of these past few years will likely unravel to deliver falling real estate demand unless new economic stimuli are put into action today."

The report concludes that the pine beetle is likely to have a negative impact on real estate values in the affected cities, and recommends that REIN`s national membership review the fundamentals very thoroughly before deciding to invest in real estate in towns and areas throughout the affected pine beetle regions in B.C., Alberta and elsewhere.

Speculation a factor in recent real estate price increases in these towns
REIN`s research found that, despite shrinking populations (a key leading indicator for declining real estate prices), real estate values in Quesnel actually rose from $116,061 in 2005 to $145,471 at March 31, 2007, an increase of 14.1% in the last year alone. During the same time period rural houses in Quesnel went up 40.6%. According to Campbell, this contradictory trend indicates that speculation may be at work, creating competing for real estate and pushing up prices.

Quesnel has seen its population drop from 10,044 in 2001 to 9,326 in 2006 — a decline of 7.1% and the third-fastest-shrinking community in Canada over that period of time. This is an important indicator because stable real estate markets are driven mainly by full-time residents.

"Rising house prices despite a falling population is a clear signal that speculation, and not fundamental economic factors, may be at work in places like Quesnel and Williams Lake," notes Campbell, author of the best-selling Real Estate Investing for Canadians.

The report notes that a similar situation is occurring in Prince George but to a lesser extent due to that city`s economy being more economically diverse. The full report is available at no charge from the Real Estate Investment Network online at www.reincanada.com.

Click Here to download the full report
 

DonCampbell

Investor, Analyst, Author, Philanthropist
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#2
For more detail, you can check out the front page of the Vancouver Sun`s Business Section today, (September 12, 2007), good coverage except that it mentions the Pine Beetle report was issued by Don Campbell of the Real Estate Investment Board (rather than `Network`). So much for accuracy.

I trust this article will stimulate debate and bring the issue to the top of mind for anyone who can make a difference in this area.

Here`s the on-line version with Don Campbell of the Real Estate Investment Board`s
Pine Beetle Report:

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/bu...1a4&k=29895
 

ProActive

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Sep 17, 2007
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Burnaby, BC
#4
Thanks for the Pine Beetle Report Don.

As an investor investing in Prince George I appreciate the information contained in the report, especially the recommended timeframe to exit each market. Fortunately, my exit strategy (even before I read the Pine Beetle report) is to liquidate in the next 2-3 years (2-5 years before your recommended exit). In the meantime, I`m keeping my eye on economic reports and demographical information for the area. Not only do I appreciate the accuracy and timing of your report, but also the call to action for more government assistance in the effected areas.

Dawn Schneider
ProActive Home Buyers
www.proactivehomebuyers.com
 

BMironov

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Aug 29, 2007
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Toronto, ON
#5
Reuter reported:Western Canadian pine beetle infestation spreads (Sep 17, 2007)
http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews...733330820070917

QUOTE The pine beetle infestation has spread unabated for eight years and unless weather conditions change to keep the tiny bugs in check, the amount of trees killed by 2015 in Canada`s largest lumber exporting province will likely reach about 1 billion cubic meters (35.3 billion cubic feet), according to a provincial analysis.

The report estimated that at least 530 million cubic meters of wood has already been killed, which is about 12 percent of the western province`s total supply of salable pine -- a key softwood construction lumber.

But the report by British Columbia`s Ministry of Forests said the number of trees killed annually appears to be declining as susceptible trees die off, and the infestation rate may return to pre-outbreak levels by 2015.

Ministry`s report is available at:
(1-page summary) http://www2.news.gov.bc.ca/news_releases_2...0131-001141.htm
(Full version) http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/mountain_pine...ate20070917.pdf
 

DonCampbell

Investor, Analyst, Author, Philanthropist
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REIN Member
Aug 22, 2007
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www.donrcampbell.com
#7
There continues to be some very good coverage of this subject in the media and within the forest industry professionals.
For instance, Our Pine Beetle report, and the great detail behind it, has just made the front business page of the #1 newspaper in Finland. The attached pdf is the article and the link below leads to the on-line teaser they used.

Here is the link to the online teaser that came out last night: http://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/artikkeli/Ilmast...4/1135230917047

I hope you can read Finnish!

IN ADDITION:


Here`s a link to a Forest Industry site that discussion mill opening and closings, as well as other key overviews of what is happening in this industry. http://www.foresttalk.com/

Here`s the Finnish article in .pdf :