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November 2010 BC Economic Fundamentals

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News articles for November 2010.
 

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A proud Prince George will hold the 2015 Canada Winter Games

Prince George and Northern British Columbia: We Did It! We will be the host to the 2015 Canada Winter Games, coinciding with the centennial of Prince George.

We are aiming high, we are thinking big, and we are strengthening our role as a knowledge-based resource economy connected to the world.

What will the Games mean for Prince George and Northern British Columbia?

To begin, they will provide Prince George and Northern British Columbia with a national two-week intensive television commercial during the Games.

The estimated direct economic impact is $70 million to $90 million, including significant indirect tourism and hospitality benefits, along with numerous marketing opportunities to leverage the 2015 Canada Games brand in the run-up to the main event. Prince George, as host city, also will benefit from the same concerted focus on civic improvement in the run-up as Vancouver received before hosting the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. Recall that Vancouver benefited from many amenity and infrastructure improvements; a $1-billion World-Class Trade and Convention Centre, a new $2-billion rapid transit line from downtown to the City of Richmond and the airport, and a $600-million upgrade to the Sea to Sky Highway to Whistler, among others.

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BC Place renovations will be finished by next fall - Podmore

VANCOUVER - The $563-million renovation of BC Place will be completed by the fall of 2011 - sooner if possible, PavCo chair David Podmore said Monday.

"It is going very, very well," he said in an interview. "At one point, we thought we might open before everything is complete but we`re not going to do that. It`s better to focus on getting it 100-per-cent complete and then open it."

Speculation on the opening date has run wild recently, with some even suggesting the B.C. Lions and Vancouver Whitecaps may not play in the facility next year. The 2011 Grey Cup will be held there on Nov. 27, 2011.

But Lions owner David Braley expects his club will play under the new retractable-roof stadium "long before" that.

He said PavCo has already overcome the first of three major construction hurdles with the successful installation of 36 steel beams that will support the roof.

Braley noted the club doesn`t have to inform season ticket holders about game locations next season until May 1 next year, when it starts to print tickets. Canadian Football League exhibition games begin in June.

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Should Buyers Beware?
Deciding whether to rent or buy should be based on a lot more than just asking the price

In mid-November, Vancouver`s condo king, Bob Rennie, will take a very public mulligan. That`s when he plans to relaunch sales at the troubled Millennium Water development, the site where Olympic athletes bunked during the Winter Games. For all the praise designers and visitors from around the globe have heaped on the project`s cutting-edge, ultra-green features, the $1-billion Millennium Water sorely lacks one crucial component—buyers. Two-thirds of the 740 units in the complex sit empty. Hence Rennie`s plan to jump-start sales by way of discounts, an HST tax holiday, and a break on property taxes and maintenance fees—initiatives that could knock 14 per cent off the initial price tag of some units.

Vancouver taxpayers, who are ultimately on the hook for any losses, aren`t the only ones eager to know if the gambit pays off. In the eyes of prospective buyers in the city, and across the country for that matter, the high-profile project has become a touchstone for whether the real estate market is about to tank. And for first-time buyers sitting on the fence, the prospect of a sharp correction on the horizon is just one of the factors they must consider before taking the plunge.

The debate over whether to rent or buy has become a permanent fixture of the real estate world. And with roughly 70 per cent of households now owning their own home—a rate even higher than in the U.S., where the cult of home ownership first took root—it`s clear the buy crowd is in the lead. But the economic upheaval of the past three years has brought the issue into focus. On the one hand, those who valued stocks and bonds as a better way to build wealth while renting have likely seen their portfolios decimated. Major indexes plunged to levels not seen in a decade, though they have staged a rebound since. At the same time, the carnage in the U.S. has exposed the risks inherent in bubbly housing markets. "Real estate has been seen as a very good place to put your money during the past decade, but I think sentiment is starting to change," says Benjamin Tal, an economist at CIBC World Markets. "After the subprime crash, people have realized prices can go down quite substantially, even in Canada." Not surprisingly, predictions of a crash abound. David Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates and a noted bear, believes house prices in Canada are overvalued by 20 per cent.

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Canada blocks development of major gold-copper mine project in B.C.

VICTORIA — The federal government on Tuesday blocked the controversial Prosperity gold-copper mine project in B.C.`s Chilcotin, citing what it labelled to be "significant" environmental concerns.

Announced by federal Environment Minister Jim Prentice, the decision overrules the B.C. government, which had given full approval for the major project to proceed.

"We believe in balancing resource stewardship with economic development," Prentice said in a written statement.

"The significant adverse environmental effects of the Prosperity project cannot be justified as it is currently proposed."

B.C`s Minister of State for Mining Randy Hawes called Ottawa`s decision "disappointing," but said he is not yet ready to declare the project dead.

"We should go back and take a look and see if there`s a way that this can be represented and restructured in a way that could work so that it could gain the approval," Hawes said, adding he had already talked to the company behind the project, Taseko Mines.

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Metro Vancouve real estate sales pace remains lukewarm

Sales levels in Lower Mainland real estate markets remain somewhere between the highs of 2009`s market rebound and the lows of 2008`s sales collapse, reports from the region`s major real estate boards show.

In Metro Vancouver, realtors recorded some 2,337 sales in October through the realtor-controlled Multiple Listing Service, which was down almost 37 per cent from the frenetic pace of the same month a year ago, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported Tuesday.

However, October`s 2,337 sales were some 71 per cent higher than the recessionary October of 2008, and board president Jake Moldowan said agents have "seen a lot more consistency and less volatility" in sales levels and pricing over the past few months.

"As we enter the final two months of the year, buyer demand is in closer alignment with supply than we`ve seen for most of 2010," Moldowan said. "Those buying today recognize that they still have a chance to enter the market with near-record-low interest rates, while gradual reductions in inventory have eased downward pressure on prices."

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Vancouver council plans to soften impact of laneway hosuing

Vancouver city council said Tuesday it will change its laneway housing policy to soften the impact on neighbourhoods but rejected demands for a moratorium.

With more than 30 of the backyard rental houses now occupied and another 190 either under construction or in the application process across the city, council and staff are hailing the program as a success.

But not everyone is happy.

Residents in the 4600-block of West 11th say the five laneway houses going up in their neighbourhood provide a cautionary tale of what can happen when a well-meaning city policy is taken to extreme.

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Vancouver Developers break ground on rental-only housing project

Developers broke ground Tuesday on the first rental-only housing project in Vancouver since 2007.

The developers of the project at 1142 Granville St., Bosa-backed Blue sky Properties, became the first to use a year-old city-backed incentive program aimed at helping the beleaguered construction industry and getting much-needed rental housing built in a city where more than half the residents rent.

The 10-storey, 106-unit rental building between Helmcken and Davie streets is the first of as many as a dozen projects developers have offered to build under the city`s Short Term Incentives for Rental housing program or STIR, a two-year trial in which the city is offering steep rollbacks in the demands it places on developers.

In this case, Vancouver is waiving development cost and amenity charges for the rental units, reducing the number of parking spaces normally required and allowing a higher density and smaller unit sizes, according to Dale Bosa, the president of Blue sky.

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Richmond explores more eco-density with coach houses and secondary suites

METRO VANCOUVER -- Renters looking for a suite over a garage in Richmond right now would have to settle in the city centre. But they may have more choices down the road if the city decides to allow coach houses in its residential neighbourhoods.

Richmond is the latest Metro Vancouver municipality to grapple with the notion of allowing coach houses — small 11⁄2- or two-storey units typically built above or next to detached garages — in single-family neighbourhoods to provide more affordable housing for a growing population.

Vancouver already allows coach houses along with granny suites and laneway housing, all of which are considered "mortgage helpers" or affordable suites for aging parents, young families and students, as part of its eco-density plan.

Surrey and Langley Township also allow the suites in certain areas, while North Vancouver City, Maple Ridge and Coquitlam are seeing more coach houses and granny suites in their municipalities.

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Vancouver business renews campaign for property tax relief

With the municipal budget season approaching, Vancouver business interests have renewed their campaign for continued gradual relief from property tax rates that vastly exceed what homeowners pay for the same value of property.

"Non residential properties that represent 17 per cent of the investment in our city are paying 50 per cent of the property taxes that run the city," said Ed Des Roches, a co-chair of the Vancouver Fair Tax Coalition in a release today. "It`s not sustainable and employment will be impacted. Employers need to see some equity in taxes.

"Tax increases over the years have gone beyond inflation and population growth," he added. "In the past 25 years, there have only been seven budgets where the property tax increase was less than four per cent."

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Business leaders react to Gordon Campbell`s resignation with shock, appreciation

Reaction in B.C.`s business community to Premier Gordon Campbell`s resignation was a mix of shock and appreciation.

John Winter, president and CEO of the B.C. Chamber of Commerce, called Campbell "perhaps the best economic manager the province has had" and said it`s critical his successor stays the course.

"What we`ve really got are good public policies that have been allowed to be derailed by politics, and the HST is perhaps the best example of that," Winter said in a phone interview. "British Columbians will be very sorry if HST leaves, but it`s hard to explain that."

The uncertainty surrounding leadership of the province is a concern, he said, and noted it will be key that Campbell`s successor has a strong economic background and is a good team player.

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BC wood grows in China

China seems to be gobbling up BC lumber, if the government press releases are to be believed. In the latest, Pat Bell BC`s Minister of Forests, Mines and Lands announced a groundbreaking in the Tianjin Economic Development Area -- about 160 km southeast of Beijing -- for projects that will include a 5,000-square-metre, five-storey residential building.

"This groundbreaking is one of the most significant developments since we started our China marketing effort seven years ago," Bell said in the release. "The four- to six-storey building segment makes up about 70 per cent of housing construction, and if we can tap into this market it will change the landscape for the B.C. lumber industry."

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Average hourly wage rises by 64 cents

The average hourly wage in British Columbia was 2.8-per-cent higher in October of this year than a year earlier, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

According to the data, the rate increased from an average of $22.46 per hour in October 2009 to $23.10 in the same month this year -- a difference of 64 cents.

Nationally, the average wage was up 2.1 per cent, from $22.35 in October 2009 to $23.10 in 2010.

But Craig Riddell, economics professor at University of B.C., was quick to point out that the statistics don`t necessarily mean that all workers took home bigger paycheques, but may reflect a change in the composition of the workforce. "An increase in employment of more highly paid people will raise the average wages even though there may not be any increase in the wages that each individual gets."

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2011 looks bright for B.C.

Even cynical economists are unable to substantiate a negative forecast for British Columbia in 2011.

No, there won`t be another Olympic victory or an out-and-out economic boom. But there will be consistent growth that would be envied by other parts of this continent -- and the world.

Why the optimism?

First, let`s not take for granted basic conditions essential to prosperity, such as peace and political stability. B.C. is fortunate to have these in abundance. Many countries are not so fortunate.

Second, a very large contributor to the province in 2011 and beyond will be the export sector.

An essential component for a prospering export industry -- or any business sector -- is customers who need our products and services and can pay for them.

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`Infamous` Bacon home touted by B.C. real-estate agent

VANCOUVER — An Abbotsford realtor invited other agents to the "infamous Bacon house" this week, serving them pizza and pop and offering a chance to win a cruise in a bid to sell the hillside property.

ReMax agent Randy Dyck said Friday that he didn`t see anything inappropriate in using the term "infamous" to describe the house where gangster brothers Jon, Jamie and Jarrod Bacon once lived with their parents, Susan and David.

In fact, Dyck thought it was more inappropriate that another realtor, disturbed by the ad, had sent it to the media.

"I am very disappointed at whoever in my industry would have sent that to you. That is so unprofessional. That is not the spirit," Dyck said.

Jon Bacon, who is on bail on a series of gun and drug charges, was shot several times in the driveway of the house in September 2006. Jamie was arrested at the house in April 2009 and charged with first-degree murder in the Surrey Six case. Jarrod, who resides in the same pretrial jail as Jamie, was also living there when he was arrested a year ago in a cocaine conspiracy case.

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Mount Milligan forges ahead, Prosperity proposal looks for lifeline

"No vacancy" signs outside Fort St. James hotels are among the small outward symbols of the Mount Milligan mine`s economic impact on British Columbia`s central interior.

"You can`t get a room in town, which is very positive for the commercial accommodations," deputy mayor Kris Nielsen said in an interview.

The town`s 158 accommodation beds are full, largely with the engineers and equipment operators preparing the $915-million mine`s site some 80 kilometres north of the community.

Green light

Mount Milligan, which was given federal environmental approval last December, received its final authorizations from the federal Environment Ministry Tuesday and will forge ahead with construction.

That is in contrast with what`s happening in Williams Lake, where residents are reeling from the federal government`s rejection of the proposed Prosperity copper-gold mine, located on the Chilcotin plateau 120 kilometres southwest of town, due to environmental concerns.

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Housing not in a bubble, except maybe in B.C.

The talk of a housing bubble, is still rampant, especially in B.C. but now BMO Capital Markets Economics says the Canadian housing market is not in a bubble. Oh, except if you live in B.C. and then maybe it is.

Market valuation is only "moderately" above long-term trends, BMO says.

"A comparison of the ratio of prices to incomes with the long-term trend suggests Canadian house prices were overvalued by as much as 18 per cent in late 2009," wrote BMO Economists Earl Sweet and Sal Guatieri. "However, a 3 per cent decline in seasonally-adjusted prices so far this year, coupled with continued moderate income growth, has reduced overvaluation in the third quarter of 2010."

"All things considered, the Canadian housing market does not appear to be in a bubble, and is unlikely to suffer a U.S.-style collapse," the economists wrote.

But prices in B.C. haven`t been declining as they have in other provinces and the price-to-income ratio is 17% above the trend line.

"The price-to-income ratio has trended up since the early 1980s reflecting the influence of pricey Vancouver, where a limited amount of space has put upward pressure on land prices, and where wealthy foreigners are supporting the market," BMO wrote. "Unlike in other provinces, B.C. house prices have continued to trend higher in 2010, reaching new peaks in September.

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Victoria home sales down 19%

Real estate sales in Greater Victoria are predicted to drop 19 per cent this year compared to last and then recover by five per cent in 2011, says a new forecast by the B.C. Real Estate Association.

A total of 6,200 sales are forecast for 2010, down from 7,660 last year, the report said. The coming year will likely see sales move up to 6,500.

The average price for all types of housing this year is anticipated to rise to $498,500, or 7 per cent, from $476,137 in 2009, the association said. Next year`s average is expected to edge down to $495,000.

Victoria home sales have slowed since last fall`s "frenetic pace," the report said.

The Victoria Real Estate Board has reported 5,718 sales of all types of properties from January to the end of October this year. That is down from the 7,039 sales over the first 10 months of 2009.

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Improving economy, low mortgage rates boost housing sales in B.C., CMHC says

VANCOUVER-- A new report suggests that low mortgage rates combined with a growing population and an improving economy bode well for Metro Vancouver home sales for the rest of 2010 and 2011.

"For the next year, we`re looking at favourable mortgage rates, a steady flow of migrants to the Lower Mainland, and a growing job market," Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. senior market analyst Robyn Adamache said in an interview about the federal agency`s housing market report that concluded sales will remain stable until mid-2011 before trending higher. "We`re looking at about 33,000 sales for Greater Vancouver [in 2011]. We`re looking at 31,000 this year. The 10-year average is about 34,000.

"Balanced market conditions that have been established in recent months will continue over the next nine to 12 months."

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`Everything`s possible in Albion`

SmartCentres still believes there`s a way to build in the Albion flats despite the creeks and floodplains in the area, and is challenging the environmental background report written for the Albion plan process.

And even though it`s familiar with the provincial and federal stream regulations, SmartCentres says it can build a project that respects those.

During October`s brainstorming session on the Albion plan, the consultant and participants ruled out any development west of 105th Avenue because of streams and natural features.

But SmartCentres says the background report "is not detailed enough to conclude specific properties and areas are not suitable for development."

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