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October 2010 BC Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for October 2010.
 

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RBC waves red flag over Vancouver housing market

VANCOUVER - RBC economist Robert Hogue is raising a "red flag" about housing affordability in Vancouver.

The bank`s quarterly report on housing trends and affordability, released Monday, said Vancouver is one of a handful of Canadian markets where the share of household income taken up by home ownership costs "is at worrisome levels."

RBC said the proportion of median pre-tax household income required to service the cost of a mortgage on an existing housing unit exceeds 70 per cent for both two--storey homes and detached bungalows. A standard condo consumes about 43 per cent of income, according to RBC.

"In Vancouver, Canada`s most expensive market, RBC housing affordability measures are very close to their all-time high, which points to significant underlying stress and raises a red flag," Hogue said in the report. "Very poor affordability is likely to restrain demand in the period ahead."

Ottawa, Montreal and markets in Saskatchewan also showed poor affordability relative to historic trends, while the situation in all other major Canadian housing markets and regions was "very close" to long term averages. The report also raised the possibility that Vancouver`s housing market could be overheated, but shied away from suggesting a price retreat. "Generally we have dismissed the case of housing market bubbles in Canada, but the situation in Vancouver is probably the closest to one in the country. While the Vancouver market is clearly vulnerable to a price correction, this does not imply that a collapse is imminent because supply [both in the existing and new home sides of the market] is well contained at this point."

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Dear Readers: I`ve done the math, and HST wins
Every writer has biases. Here are mine: I`m not a thug or a propagandist for the B.C. or Ontario Liberals. Over my lifetime I have voted for the federal Liberals, the federal PC party, the Socreds, the B.C. Liberals, the Ontario NDP, the Ontario Tories, the Rhinoceros party and, once or twice, "none of the above." I couldn`t care less which party brought in the HST. If it`s a good tax that keeps businesses employing Canadians and it helps pay for our spiralling health care and education costs, I`m for it.

I agree the B.C. Liberals did a pathetic job of introducing the tax. It should have been an election issue or debated in the legislature. Said one reader: "It`s not so much the tax, it is lying about the tax that sticks in everyone`s throat." Said another: "The issue is about how the tax was brought in, that the government lied about it."

The optics of announcing the new tax a week or two after winning the election, and without campaigning on it, are not good. Someone should lose their job over how this was done, and if the polls have anything to say about it, someone will.

Now that I`ve dealt with 180 of the comments, let`s turn to the ones about the tax itself. Lets assume, at least in B.C., that it was debated in the legislature and not brought in by the current premier or the current party. Like Joe Friday said, lets just look at the facts:

1. "It`s not fair to the poor and the unemployed. Lawyers and economists can afford this tax. A lot of the rest of us can`t."
Actually, if you do the math, low income British Columbians are actually better off under the HST system than under the old PST regime. Lets run some numbers to prove it. Under the PST system, British Columbians whose annual income was $15,000 or less, received a $75 PST credit (not cash) when they filed their annual income tax return. And this $75 PST credit declined by 2 per cent of gross individual income above $15,000 a year, meaning you received no credit once your taxable income reached $18,750.

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B.C. Premier calls on Ottawa to approve Prosperity Mine

Premier Gordon Campbell turned up the heat Friday on the federal government, delivering a solid endorsement of the Prosperity copper-gold mine project during a wrap-up speech at the annual convention of the Union of B.C. Municipalities.

Taseko Mines is proposing an open pit mine at a site near Williams Lake, promising that the estimated $815-million project will create hundreds of new jobs in the economically struggling region over a minimum 22-year mine life.

Local municipal governments are in favour of the mine, but first nations that consider the proposed mine area part of their traditional territory are expressing strong opposition because the project would require the elimination of a 111-hectare fish-bearing lake.

B.C.`s environmental assessment office approved the project, and federal regulators aligned under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency have taken no official position — but noted in a report to the Harper Conservatives that Prosperity would cause what are described as "significant adverse environmental effects."

Prime Minister Stephen Harper`s cabinet has yet to announce a decision.

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Olympic Village buyers trying to back out of purchases

VANCOUVER - Back in 2007 and 2008, in the pre-Olympics excitement, 264 of the 737 available units in what would become the athletes` village on False Creek were pre-sold, long before the development was built.

But it appears that 41 of those pre-sales — 15 per cent — have still not closed, adding to the growing list of problems in the Millennium Water development.

That list includes the recent default by the developer, Millennium, on a portion of its last loan payment, and the continuing struggle to sell the more than 450 available units in the controversial complex.

Originally, the city announced 264 buyers had signed up for pre-sale units. This week, city hall said that in fact, of the 259 units in the troubled development that have sold, only 223 are from pre-sales made in 2007 and 2008. (The other 36 units were sold more recently.)

Forty-one pre-sold units are therefore unaccounted for.

Writs filed in B.C. Supreme Court show the buyers involved in at least 15 pre-sales of the Millenium Water units are now trying to get out of those contracts.

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Gordon Campbell announces push on major transportation projects

WHISTLER - Premier Gordon Campbell said his government will push ahead on planning for a number of major transportation and transit improvements around B.C., including rapid transit and bus projects in Vancouver, Surrey, Langley and major Interior and Vancouver Island communities.

In a speech Friday to the Union of B.C. Municipalities convention that drew heavily on the memories of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and included an apology for bumbling the announcement of the Harmonized Sales Tax, Campbell offered few details about his plans to advance a number of previously-announced projects.

He said it was "time to push ahead" and take advantage of the Olympic momentum with those projects, including the next phase of the Cariboo Connector and improvements to some of the province`s major arterial highways.

He told reporters later most of the projects will be funded through Partnerships BC, the government agency that links businesses with government projects worth more than $50 million each. But he said he`s been pushing cities like Vancouver and Langley to decide what kind of technologies and alignments they want.

Vancouver is considering rapid transit - either bus or SkyTrain-style rail - to UBC and Langley wants a SkyTrain extension from Surrey.

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Senior citizens blaze Trail

Spend a little time at the airport in Trail and you`ll learn a thing or two about the kind of people who make up this historic West Kootenay town nestled between the Selkirk and Monashee mountains.

Seven years ago, when residents here decided they needed a commercial airport to attract new business to the region, Don Nutini took it on.

Nutini was 72 then, a time of life when most folks want to kick back with a cup of coffee and bounce their grandbabies on their laps.

Instead, Nutini rolled up his sleeves and got to work, securing a licence for the site, laying heavy electrical cable and installing junction boxes for strobe lights on the runway.

Today, the airport serves about 2,000 passengers a month, with a crew of six volunteers -- all of them retirees -- pitching in to keep it operating five days a week, winter, spring, summer and fall.

It`s an impressive achievement for any community. But what`s particularly remarkable about Trail is that the airport is just one in a long list of accomplishments achieved mainly by senior citizens. Inspired by their deep roots in the town and their industrious Italian forebears, they have created a community of "super volunteers."

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B.C. oil and gas regulations taking effect

The British Columbia government on Monday touted the introduction of new oil and gas regulations it says brings the province`s regulatory regime into the 21st Century.

In a news release, the province said its new Oil and Gas Activities Act (OGAA) updates the previous framework, which is more than 50 years old, while acknowledging the contributions the energy industry makes to the province`s treasury. Oil and gas surpassed forestry as the government`s leading revenue generator in the middle of the last decade.

"These changes ensure B.C.`s largest resource revenue earner continues to prosper and create jobs, while enhancing our world-class environmental standards," said Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources Minister Bill Bennett.

The OGAA received royal assent in 2008 but the regulations have been developed and refined since the legislation was passed. In addition to more comprehensive and "consistent" environmental standards, local communities and First Nations will have more input into oil and gas activities in their areas.

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Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley home sales up in September, but sharply down from a year ago

September home sales in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley were slightly ahead of August sales but considerably down from a year ago, according to two reports released Monday.

In Metro Vancouver, a total of 2,220 sales were recorded in September, a 0.8-per-cent increase from August, but 37.6 per cent less than the 3,559 sales in September 2009, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported.

As well, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said a total of 1,044 sales were processed in September, a five-per-cent increase from August, but a decrease of 34 per cent compared to 1,590 sales in September of last year.

Since spring, housing prices in Metro Vancouver have trended slightly downward, with a decrease of 2.7 per cent compared to the all-time high reached in April when the residential benchmark price was $593,419, the REBGV said.

The overall benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 5.5 per cent to $577,174 in September from $547,092 in September 2009.

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Home sales slide by more than one-third over last year

September home sales in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley were up slightly from August but considerably down from a year ago, state two reports released Monday.

In Metro Vancouver, a total of 2,220 sales were recorded in September, a 0.8-per-cent increase from August, but 37.6 per cent less than the 3,559 sales in September 2009, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported.

As well, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said a total of 1,044 sales were processed in September, a five-per-cent increase from August, but a decrease of 34 per cent compared to 1,590 sales in September of last year.

Since spring, housing prices in Metro Vancouver have trended slightly downward, with a decrease of 2.7 per cent compared to the all-time high reached in April when the residential benchmark price was $593,419, the Greater Vancouver board said. The overall benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 5.5 per cent to $577,174 in September from $547,092 in September 2009.

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Want to be happy? Move to the North Shore

When Andrew Naiberg and his wife Debbie moved back to Metro Vancouver from Texas, they wanted to live near the mountains and ocean but not be crammed into a tiny lot amid a slew of narrow homes.

They ended up on the North Shore, one of the happiest places in Metro Vancouver -- a region where most people say they are very satisfied with the quality of life, according to the Vancouver Foundation`s latest report card on the region`s vitality.

"We`re really happy," Naiberg, 42, said as he sat on his second-floor balcony looking at the mountains. "The neat thing about North Vancouver is it has a village feel to it; we have our local market, a lot of family-run shops ... a lot of weekends we don`t have a need to leave the North Shore."

The 2010 Vital Signs report, which grades Metro Vancouver on 12 key indicators of livability, surveyed 1,200 people on the economy, affordability, getting around, safety, belonging, learning, environmental sustainability, housing, children and youth, seniors, and health and wellness.

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Realty firms sees signs of stability in B.C. markets

The realty firm Re/Max is predicting that provincial real estate markets are settling into a period of stability, pointing to British Columbia`s high-end home sales as an indication of that trend, according to a forecast released Tuesday.

Re/Max, in its fall 2010 Market Trends report, said B.C. home sales have slowed, but predicted home values will remain stable in the coming months.

Metro Vancouver has seen home prices edge off of peaks attained earlier this year, but Re/Max expects they will hold on to most of the gains they saw during the 2009 market rebound.

"The interesting thing we`re seeing is that the luxury-home market is staying fairly strong," Elton Ash, Re/Max`s executive vice-president, said in an interview.

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Luxury home market booming in Metro Vancouver

VANCOUVER -- The realty firm Re/Max is looking to British Columbia`s high-end home sales as one bellwether for its prediction that provincial real estate markets are settling into a period of stability, according to a forecast released Tuesday.

Re/Max, in its fall 2010 Market Trends report, estimated that while B.C. home sales have slowed, home values will remain stable in the coming months.

Metro Vancouver has seen home prices edge off of peaks attained earlier this year, but Re/Max expects they will hold on to most of the gains they saw during the 2009 market rebound.

"The interesting thing we`re seeing is that the luxury-home market is staying fairly strong," Elton Ash, Re/Max`s executive vice-president, said in an interview.

In Metro Vancouver, for instance, Re/Max counted 1,356 sales of homes worth more than $1.5 million during the first eight months of 2010, 44 per cent more than the same period of 2009.

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Boost in B.C.`s lumber production not a boom for everyone

VANCOUVER - A 20-per-cent increase in lumber production at British Columbia sawmills in the first seven months of 2010 is better news for the province`s beleaguered forestry industry, but that really depends on where you are.

Statistics Canada, on Wednesday, reported that B.C. sawmills produced almost 15.8 million cubic metres of lumber to the end of July, an almost 21-per-cent increase from the same period of 2009.

That is slightly more than half of Canada`s total production over the same period. The nation`s almost 31 million cubic metres of lumber production to the end of July represented an almost 20 per cent increase from 2009.

However, while some mills in B.C.`s northern and central interior have opened or added shifts, others remain curtailed. And which mills operate depends on whether they can tap export markets that have become more lucrative while the U.S. housing construction sector remains stagnant.

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Residential rebound boosts B.C. construction

A swing of the housing cycle back into building multi-family projects gave a big boost to British Columbia`s construction sector in August, figures released Thursday by Statistics Canada show.

B.C. saw builders take out $880 million worth of building permits in August, with the biggest portion of that -- $621 million -coming from residential construction projects.

That $621-million figure is 20-per-cent higher than July, and 73 per cent above the same month a year ago.

Permit applications are an indicator of builders` immediate intentions to build, and Statistics Canada found that in B.C., contractors are returning to multi-family townhouse and condominium projects.

"The story basically was that there was a big increase in multiple-[unit] housing permits," Statistics Canada analyst Nicole Charron said in an interview.

"There was a decrease in all sectors of non-residential construction, whether it was commercial, industrial or institutional. They all went down [in August].

"However, the residential component was very strong in B.C."

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VIREB reports September statistics

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales summary data released by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) for September 2010, shows declines in unit sales compared to 2009.

There were 267 sales of single family properties in the VIREB area through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2010, down 41 per cent from the 449 sales in September 2009.

"We are beginning to see a plateau in inventories while prices are holding their own," says VIREB President Cliff Moberg." "With historically low interest rates still available, it may be as good a time as any to consider buying a home", he adds.

A total of 679 single family homes came on the market in September compared with 687 in September of last year.

The average sale price across the VIREB region for September 2010 was $325,336; a two per cent decrease from the $333,117 posted a year ago.

For the 12-month period from the end of September 2009 to September 2010, average sale prices across VIREB`s six zones were: Campbell River decreased 13 per cent (to $261,423), the Comox Valley was down two per cent (to $327,043), Nanaimo slipped one per cent (to $350,998), Parksville/Qualicum jumped 10 per cent to $392,137), Port Alberni grew three per cent (to $248,136) and the Cowichan Valley slid 11 per cent (to $313,363).

Jim Stewart, president-elect of VIREB says that, "Although there are signs of stability in the market, it is critically important to consult with a REALTOR® to be properly informed on how it might affect an individual situation.

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Layers of HST regulation are like the onion

As businesses in Ontario and British Columbia are no doubt discovering, the harmonized sales tax (HST) has advantages and challenges. If your company is in an HST province and has customers across Canada, the tax system makes it more complicated to determine which rate of tax to collect on sales. To do it right, business in Ontario and Bristish Columbia will have to grapple with complex rules that have as many layers as an onion and are almost as likely to reduce you to tears.

If you fail to collect the correct amount of tax, your company could be on the hook for the full amount. With HST at 12% in British Columbia and 13% in Ontario, mistakes can be twice as costly as they were under GST.

Tax systems vary across all provinces: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland have HST at 15%, 13% and 13%, respectively; Saskatchewan, Manitoba and P.E.I. have their own provincial sales taxes; Quebec has its own system; Alberta has no provincial sales tax. Of course, the 5% GST applies in all non-HST provinces.

As for the advantages of being located in a province with HST, if you purchase items for your business, including computers, software, furniture, paper and toner, you may be able to claim back the HST paid. Under the previous sales tax systems in British Columbia and Ontario, you could generally only claim the GST, but not the PST.

The rules apply differently depending on the types of goods or services you sell. To determine which rate of tax to collect, you must first correctly classify what you`re selling.

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B.C. real estate sales beat previous month in September

VANCOUVER — British Columbia in September saw more real estate sales than August, which was the second month in a row sales beat the previous month, the British Columbia Real Estate Association reported Wednesday.

Realtors saw 5,511 homes sold through the realtor-controlled Multiple Listing Service in September, which was 36-per-cent lower than the frenetic levels of the same month a year ago, but slightly above August levels on a seasonally adjusted basis.

"Market conditions have improved, with the months of supply declining from 11.1 in June to 8.9 in September," association chief economist Cameron Muir said in a news release. "A balanced market typically exhibits five to seven months of supply."

That means fewer sellers are putting homes on the market reducing the potential that supply will overwhelm demand.

Muir added that declining mortgage rates, which have fallen back to near all-time lows, should also bolster some housing demand "as consumers take advantage of a second opportunity to secure near record low interest rates."

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Vancouver`s laneway housing experiment off to quick start

Vancouver`s experiment with laneway housing appears to be going well, according to a report going to city council Thursday.

More than 170 applications for the micro-housing have been received since council adopted in July, 2009 a plan to permit homeowners to build small one- and two-bedroom rental units on the back ends of their properties.

The outcome is exactly what the city expected, planning director Brent Toderian said Wednesday. All of the new housing has been spread across all residential neighbourhoods and isn`t concentrated in one place, he said.

Moreover, the project has shown universal support among homeowners looking for more ways to accommodate infill housing for rental purposes or extended family members, he said. Of the 173 applications, about 60 have so far been approved.

When council approved laneway housing last year, it instructed staff to report back either within three years or after the first 100 applications. But the take-up of the idea was so strong that within less than a year the city had received its 100th application. It has been receiving an average of 11 applications a month.

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Log exports worry workers

The export of raw logs, which sees millions of cubic metres of unprocessed wood from B.C. heading to foreign mills each year, has long been a controversial practice in the province.

Recently, forestry workers marched through the streets of Nanaimo to protest the ongoing practice, and federal NDP leader Jack Layton said in a visit to the city earlier this month that a national forestry strategy is needed to stop the export of raw logs from B.C.

With more than 70 wood-processing facilities and mills closing in B.C. since 2000, including 33 in the coastal region with thousands of job losses, many unions representing forestry workers have been increasingly pressing all levels of government to tighten restrictions on raw log exports from both public and private lands.

Forest companies argue that exporting raw logs for processing in mills overseas and in the U.S., where nearby mills in Oregon and Washington have upgraded and retooled to keep up with current international demand, help the private companies to remain economically viable until the global market for B.C.`s forest products improve after a lengthy recession that saw sales plummet in recent years.

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