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October 2014 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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Canadian economy adds 74,100 jobs in September





OTTAWA - Statistics Canada said Friday the country's economy generated 74,100 net new jobs last month, knocking the unemployment rate down to its lowest level in nearly six years.





The unemployment rate for September fell by 0.2 percentage points to 6.8 per cent - its lowest since December 2008.












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Industry players learn from Polar Vortex winter as they prepare for a new season





OTTAWA - Hang on to your wallet and put on an extra sweater.





Energy industry players say they've learned from last year's so-called polar vortex and are bracing for what the Farmer's Almanac says will be another bitterly cold season ` one that's already being dubbed the "T-Rex" of winters.





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Spending on renovations outpaces new home construction





More money was spent renovating homes in Canada than building new ones during the 12 months to the end of June, according to data compiled by the Bank of Montreal.





`In the four quarters through [the second quarter], renovation activity outpaced investment in new residential construction $48.4-billion to $46.3-billion, as the latter has rolled over recently,` BMO economist Robert Kavcic pointed out in a recent research note. `Indeed, while new construction spending was down in recent quarters, renovation spending accelerated to a 6.9 per cent year-over-year clip in Q2.`





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Canadian house prices moderating






Canada`s housing market is in Goldilocks mode ` not too hot and not too cold, except in Toronto and Calgary which are `bucking the trend of moderation` now taking hold in major cities from Halifax to Montreal and Winnipeg, says a quarterly house price survey from Royal LePage.







House prices are still expected to climb in most Canadian cities, but at a far less `robust` pace than has been seen since the 2008 recession, says the real estate company in a review of third-quarter home sales released Wednesday.





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Canadians paying down debt quickly in a low-rate environment





Contrary to all the hype about consumer debt levels, Canadians are paying off their debts, especially their mortgages, at a faster rate than the Bank of Canada estimates, says CIBC economist Benjamin Tal.





Canadians are actually very responsible in the face of tempting low interest rates, Tal said in an interview with CBC`s The Exchange with Amanda Lang.





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Canadian home resales ease in September





TORONTO (Reuters) - Home resales in Canada dropped in September from August but prices continued to climb, separate reports showed on Wednesday, suggesting tight supply supported prices even as momentum in Canada's hot housing market may be starting to wane.





The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said sales were down 1.4 percent last month from August, the first monthly decline since January. Sales dropped in about 60 percent of local markets across the country and cooled in several booming markets, including Toronto and Calgary.





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Big 3 cities drive Canada's still-hot housing market in September





Canada`s closely watched housing market continues to post higher-than-expected sales and price gains this fall, but increasingly, the bulk of gains are accruing in just three places: Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto.





That`s good news for those centres in the near term, but the still-hot pace is raising concerns about a potentially sharp correction the longer those markets boom amid ultra-low borrowing rates.





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Projected salary increase of 3.15% in 2015





Canada`s projected average salary increase for 2015 is forecast at 3.16 per cent, according to a survey by the Wynford Group in Calgary. That compares to an actual increase of 3.21 per cent for 2014. The survey`s outlook is rosier than others, said Gail Evans, president of the Wynford Group.





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Canada's great East-West migration





The oilsands boom is reshaping Canada in many ways, and nowhere is this more obvious than where people are moving.





We've known for a long time that Canadians are flocking to Alberta for jobs, but a new chart from BMO shows just extreme the trend has become.





Atlantic Canada`s population is shrinking, while Alberta`s population growth is basically doubling the national average, BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes wrote in a client note Wednesday.





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Canada's top 10 residential construction markets





Toronto is still by far the most active market for new residential construction in Canada, but Calgary is rising quickly.





At the end of Q3 2014, the Alberta boomtown had a total of 31,164 homes under construction in its metropolitan area (CMA), up 5.86 per cent from the second quarter. The jump in construction was enough to overtake Montreal and land in the number two spot on BuzzBuzzHome`s Q3 report on Canada`s Top Ten Residential Construction Markets.





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Migrating to Quebec, but settling in other provinces





In Order to beat the rush and to immigrate faster to Canada, Often Immigrants opt for immigration to provinces where no immigrant wishes to land. These provinces have low population, lesser job or business opportunities and poor infrastructure






Canadian Government encourages immigration to such provinces. However Immigrants after getting such Provincial Immigration often make way to other popular destinations as BC, Alberta or Toronto





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Why China's slowdown is taking a heavy toll on Canada





If beaten up Canadian investors are looking to assign blame for the bruising suffered by their portfolios of late, they could do worse than point an accusatory finger at China. The resource super-cycle that drove valuations so much higher over the last decade is now hobbling along at a snail`s pace and China is a big part of the reason why.





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Even the experts admit to mistakes on picking mortgage





It can`t be easy for a certified financial planner to admit this, but Ted Rechtshaffen admits he blew it on his last mortgage.





`I was wrong. I had a variable rate mortgage and in 2009 I pulled the plug and went fixed,` said the president of TriDelta Financial in Toronto, joking about how his rate was 75 basis points off of prime and would amount to 2.25% today. `I did mess up, but my question was what benefit do I get locking-in versus going variable?`





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Gone downtown: 2015 real estate trend





TORONTO - Homeowners who choose the convenience of city life over the more generous living space in suburbia are driving Canada's real estate market, according to a new report jointly produced by consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers and the non-profit Urban Land Institute.





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Is urbanization the new normal for Canada?





The surge in city living over suburban living is no longer an `emerging trend` but `the new normal` as millennials ` and a growing number of their parents ` transform downtown cores across much of Canada at dizzying speed, according to a new report.





That urbanization trend ` the shift to living and playing close to work ` continues to blur the lines between commercial and residential development in downtown cores, fuelling the creation of new office towers and even spurring a resurgence in rental-apartment construction for the first time in decades.





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Private real estate investors scooping up commercial real estate deals





According to the latest data, private Canadian investors have finally managed to beat off big pension funds in order to close on more commercial real estate deals.





As individual Canadian investors got serious about investing at home, investment in local commercial real estate improved during the second quarter of 2014.





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Transit and amenities draw investors to office, apartment assets





`New investment is focused on nodes that will be serviced by future light rail transit,` reports CBRE Ltd. in its third-quarter review of investment markets across Canada.





But the comment isn`t about Vancouver; it`s about Waterloo, Ontario, where CBRE senior vice-president Peter Whatmore notes that the local market has experienced a rebalancing.





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Black Knight signs first Canadian MLS deal, and it's a big one





Black Knight Financial Services has signed its first multiple listing service deal in Canada with a group of associations representing more than 17,000 real estate professionals in western Canada.





Together, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and the Realtors Association of Edmonton have signed an agreement with Black Knight to replace their current MLS systems with Black Knight`s Paragon 5 system during the summer of 2015, the company said.





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Residential property can bring a steady payoff





When Diane Leahy decided to become a do-it-yourself investor, she looked for a winning strategy and found that there`s no place like home.





`We became landlords in 1993, starting with our personal residence,` says Ms. Leahy, an airline service director who lives with her paramedic husband, Mark Halden, and their two teenaged sons in Toronto.





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CMHC's housing forecast indicates steady housing market in 2015





OTTAWA, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Oct. 30, 2014) -
According to CMHC's fourth quarter 2014 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition[sup]1[/sup], housing starts in 2015 will remain similar to levels observed in 2014 and in line with economic and demographic trends. By 2016, some moderation is expected.





"The trend for housing starts has been up in recent months, particularly in multi-unit structures. This has been broadly supported by key factors such as employment, disposable income and net migration, which are expected to continue to be supportive of the Canadian housing market over the 2014-2016 forecast horizon," said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.





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