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Ontario Predictions?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by CorySperle, Apr 20, 2017.

  1. CorySperle
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    CorySperle Active Member REIN Member

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  2. Willyboy
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    Willyboy Member Registered

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    My thoughts are I'm heading to Calgary right now. I have to act fast and buy a couple properties in Calgary before the foreign and local speculators move to Calgary.
     
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  3. RELover
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    RELover Member REIN Member

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    Question:


    Rent increase - is 2% plus 1.5% allowed or just 1.5%? I think it's 1.5%.
     
  4. RELover
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    RELover Member REIN Member

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    Ps I think the market will cool but prices will not go down.

    Maybe initially prices will and people panic and sell but then a lot of the buyers who weren't in the market will now come into the market again driving prices up.

    Foreign buyers may go into simcoe, Waterloo, Wellington.

    They don't even have data on how many FB we have in Toronto

    Question: would the fbt apply to new homes people have already purchased or would t be for new contracts being signed today and after? Not fair for buyers who are in a pre construction and now at closing will have to pay a tax that didn't exist when they bought the property.
     
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  5. ThomasBeyer
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    ThomasBeyer Well-Known Member REIN Member

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    Look to BC what will happen in GTA: SFH prices will drop somewhat 20% on high end or where foreign money is concentrated, less than 10% on mid to low end) volume will go down quite a bit, condos fairly unaffected, foreign $s will shift elsewhere such as cities further away ( Kingston, Ottawa, Montreal, London, KWC) and into other asset classes, such as commercial, industrial & retail. Every action has predictable reactions, and some unintended consequences. Most foreigners have a local friend, brother or uncle who will buy on their behalf.

    Political gestures to appease voters and to appear "in control" by narcissistic politicians with little real world results in a year or two.
     
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  6. RELover
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    RELover Member REIN Member

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    Just their way to get even more tax! Without actually solving any problem.
     
  7. Willyboy
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    Willyboy Member Registered

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    The article says the tax will be imposed on the golden horseshoe and as far as Waterloo, Barrie and all the way through to the US border.
     
  8. ThomasBeyer
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    ThomasBeyer Well-Known Member REIN Member

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    Ottawa the big winner then, just like Victoria in BC. All very predictable. Rich Danby is cheering as we speak. Hear him speak at ACRE this weekend. Great communicator and investor, in Ottawa.
     
  9. CorySperle
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    CorySperle Active Member REIN Member

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    Agreed
     
  10. Rickson9
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    Rickson9 Well-Known Member Registered

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    No effect Toronto real estate prices because there isn't a foreign buyer problem. This is just a government tax grab.

    Toronto real estate prices continue to boom!
     
  11. RELover
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    RELover Member REIN Member

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    What makes you so confident?

    Agreed that foreign buyer percentage in Toronto is probably less than in Vancouver but there is definitely fear in the market which is going to decrease activity in the market.
     
  12. ThomasBeyer
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    ThomasBeyer Well-Known Member REIN Member

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    Why not look to BC for evidence, as opposed to your navel ?

    In BC the results were:
    A) money shifted to other cities, notably Victoria causing 50% price increases there. Similar effects will happen in Ottawa, Kingston, KWC, London or Montreal if only Golden Horseshoe cities will be affected by this new foreigners tax.

    B) money will shift into other asset classes such as commercial, farmland, vineyards, retail, office or industrial.

    C) high end home prices and those with high foreign money concentration will drop the most, 15-20%, whereas condos and mid to lower priced homes will not shift much

    D) volume will drop immediately as foreigners re-assess the situation ( and that is why realtors do not like these measures at all )

    E) in a year or max. two prices will be like today
     
  13. ThomasBeyer
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    ThomasBeyer Well-Known Member REIN Member

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    Let's not confuse confidence with accuracy !
     
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  14. RELover
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    RELover Member REIN Member

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    Solid Data to back up claim would provide cofidence
     
  15. ThomasBeyer
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    ThomasBeyer Well-Known Member REIN Member

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  16. DanW
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    DanW New Member Registered

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    I think the tax could cause prices to increase where I invest which is London Ontario. We will see and if I see our prices getting too expensive I will start taking profits. I think I would be fine to hold my properties because in the 90's the real estate downturn was muted in London compared to Toronto. I am going to see what happens. At some point taking profit and investing in other assets could be a good move.
     
  17. Rickson9
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    Rickson9 Well-Known Member Registered

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    I'm the most accurate poster here.

    I cautioned Calgary cheerleaders who thought it was great a few years ago when people here thought it was "Top 10" and Alberta Economic Reports were put up regularly. Where are those regular reports now?

    And I promoted investing in US property after the credit crisis when people here thought it was "dangerous" and talking silliness about Chinese wallboard and running out of drinking water when real estate prices were pennies on the dollar and our dollar was at parity. Talk about missing the forest for the trees.

    Everybody who posted against me in both aforementioned scenarios haven't posted here since then.

    The Ontario16 point announcement will have no impact on Toronto real estate prices. Pretty simple to see that IMO. It's only going to add some tax revenue and create some more useless government jobs.

    Foreign tax in Vancouver has had virtually no impact. Trust me, real estate owners in Vancouver aren't suffering. And Toronto real estate owners won't suffer either.

    http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/...ncouver-home-buyers-as-prices-climb-1.4073731

    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/re...http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

    Don't be a hater. Toronto real estate is hot. Just accept it. And be happy!
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
  18. CorySperle
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    CorySperle Active Member REIN Member

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    I'll ask again, how many pieces of Toronto real estate have you purchased in the past 6 months?
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017
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  19. colinaforrest
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    colinaforrest Performance Investing with Integrity Registered

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    No one can argue that Toronto RE is hot. But for how long? Remember, what goes up, must come down. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but eventually. Is there irrational exuberance in the TO market? Some say yes, some say no. So clearly, opinions are divided right now. What is not up for debate is the fact that with 25% down, it is virtually impossible to find good quality product that will cash flow positively in that market. For that reason alone, I wouldn't invest in Toronto right now. I've never invested for capital appreciation alone.
     
  20. ThomasBeyer
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    ThomasBeyer Well-Known Member REIN Member

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    Investing in Toronto and Vancouver area is risky at this moment for cash-flow ie buy-and-hold investors. Speculation abounds and doable for those with deep cash pockets.

    Single Family Homes (SFHs) will likely continue to APPRECIATE in value as they are not making any more, and in fact, often take them out to make room for more condos, THs or mid-rises. However, SFHs are tough to cash-flow. Condos will appreciate far less, if at all, after the sharp rise we've seen over the last few years. Banks are tightening mortgage underwriting.

    What makes sense are pre-sales or assets that cash flow, like up/down houses, THs or entry level condos. If you can hold with negative cash-flow SFHs and newer condos too make sense, but due to negative cash flow it is very high risk and you can't buy too many of these. Proceed with extreme caution in both markets.

    Other, less risky, but still fairly bouyant but cash-flowing markets exists all over the place, in BC, AB, SK or ON: Kamloops, Kelowna, S-Okanagan, Nanaimo, Central AB, Edmonton, Sunshine Coast, Kingston, Ottawa, Barrie, London, etc ..
     
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