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August 2009

Amber

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Lauerman: Nigeria is a nasty mess

Nigeria, Africa`s longtime biggest oil producer, is a nasty mess. That mess could contribute to substantially higher crude oil prices once the global economy rebounds in earnest.

The collapse in crude oil prices over the past year, along with the steady decline in production in the Niger Delta, the country`s main producing region, has strained Nigeria`s foreign and government accounts and caused it to lose pole position among African oil producers. Oil and gas revenues account for more than 95% of the country`s export earnings and most of the government`s revenue.

Based on International Energy Agency data, Nigeria`s oil production slipped to 1.72 million barrels per day in June, almost 45% below its total capacity, compared with 1.8 million bpd for Angola. Nigeria`s onshore production has fallen to levels not seen since the 1960s.

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The oil and gas producers spending enough to grow production through 2010

Given the challenges associated with accessing capital these days, it comes as little surprise that many energy companies are not expected to maintain production volumes through 2010.

This is not necessarily a negative given many plays are not economic in the current environment, according to Dundee Securities analyst Grant Daunheimer. As a result, he said pouring additional capital into them is not good business in the short term.

The analyst told clients that the concern is longer term in nature.

"When issuers stop spending and decline rates kick in, the treadmill runs pretty fast and recovering lost volumes becomes a daunting task. Countering this is a requirement to protect the balance sheet to maintain financial flexibility to survive the current weak commodity price environment."

So which junior and intermediate oil and gas producers are spending enough capital to maintain production volumes?

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Carbon credits won`t work: economist

QUEBEC -- Carbon credits -- to package and trade offsets to greenhouse gas emissions -- won`t work, says McGill University economist Christopher Green.

"This cure could be worse than the disease," says Mr. Green, rejecting the argument of Premier Jean Charest, who wants the Montreal Exchange to be the carbon market for all of Canada.

As an alternative to Charest`s "cap and trade" proposal for carbon credits, Mr. Green proposes a carbon tax.

A carbon tax would cost less, he says, and would pay for "an energy-technology revolution," finding ways to use less carbon, or no carbon for industrial processes, transportation, heating and cooling.

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Alberta`s bullet train still years in the future

Decades could be needed to plan and build line from Edmonton to Calgary


Land has been assembled in Calgary and Edmonton, the provincial government is eyeing transportation corridors and there`s growing corporate and public interest in the project, but a high-speed train won`t be leaving the station any time soon in Alberta.

In the wake of a newly released government report studying the prospects for high-speed rail in Alberta, there`s renewed momentum to build the 300-kilometre, multibillion-dollar link between Calgary and Edmonton--one that could shuttle passengers between the two centres in as little as one hour.

The public is on board, with repeated polls showing a large majority of Albertans would ride the rails if a bullet train pulled into town. Companies from around the world are expressing interest in both building and operating the line in some form of a public-private partnership with the provincial government.

But with Alberta`s Tory government projecting deficits totalling more than $10 billion over the next few years, it will be upwards of two decades before a bullet train takes off in the province, said Transportation Minister Luke Ouellette.

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Incentives aim to boost gas exploration in northeastern B.C.

Stimulus package designed to encourage growth despite relatively low gas prices


The British Columbia government is discounting some of the royalties it collects on natural gas and oil resources in a bid to drive new investment in the northeast.

On Thursday, Minister of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources Blair Lekstrom announced an "oil and gas stimulus package" the government hopes will attract investment at a time when low North American gas prices have the industry in the doldrums.

The province didn`t estimate a value for the package, which will ultimately depend on how vigorously gas exploration drillers respond, but suggested that for every $1 of forgone royalties, B.C. will yield $2.50 in revenue growth from the industry.

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Price structure seen boosting crude storage at sea

NEW YORK/LONDON - The amount of crude oil being stored at sea has risen sharply over the past two weeks, particularly in the U.S. Gulf, due to a price incentive for oil companies to hold stocks on board vessels, traders and analysts said Friday.

Several industry sources estimated that there were 70 million barrels of oil being stored at sea. While the estimates vary from around 60 million to 100 million barrels, most sources agree offshore storage levels rose by around 10 million barrels in the last two weeks alone.

A Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) can store up to two million barrels of crude oil.

"We have seen renewed interest in chartering VLCCs for storing crude oil of late, which we believe has been stimulated by the widening of the contango in WTI futures," said Simon Chattrabhuti, head of tanker research with ICAP Shipping in London.

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Natural gas falls most in two months

Prices - Natural gas futures fell the most in two months after a U. S. government report showed a bigger-than-estimated increase in American stockpiles.

Supplies in storage gained 66 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 31 to 3.089 trillion cubic feet, the U. S. Energy Department said. Analysts forecast a gain of 61 billion. The total was a record for late July, based on weekly department data going back to 1994.

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Alberta`s unemployment up to 7.2%

CALGARY - Alberta`s unemployment rate continued to rise in July, jumping nearly half a percentage point to 7.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday.

That rate is the highest in 13 years.

The province lost 3,700 jobs last month while more Albertans joined the labour force.

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Mall`s 3,500 jobs draw big interest

Samantha Aiello is sitting cross-legged, answering texts and joking with friends as sunlight streams through the windows.

It`s nothing unusual for a late Saturday morning.

Except that the 18-year-old has been sitting -- and occasionally trying to nap --on the floor of the Plus-15 into the Telus Convention Centre in hopes of snagging one of the estimated 3,500 jobs at the new CrossIron Mills mall opening at Balzac this August.

Aiello is first in line, having arrived just before 9 a. m. for the noon opening of the two-day job fair.

"I need a job. I`m expensive to take care of and no one will do it but me," she said jokingly.

But, she said, the truth is she wants to work and hopes visiting some of the 80 stores and services with booths at the fair will help her secure employment.

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Alberta`s building permits down, led by non-residential sector

CALGARY - The value of Alberta`s building permits dropped in June as non-residential construction slowed, Statistics Canada said Thursday.

Alberta`s building permits totalled $843 million in June, a 24 per cent decline from May.

The drop, which comes after three months of increases, was attributed to a nearly 40-per-cent decline in non-residential construction, which includes industrial, commerical and institutional permits. The value of residential permits rose 10 per cent in June.

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Albertans Upbeat about Buying a House

More Albertans believe now is the time to buy a home than in anytime since PricewaterhouseCoopers began tracking the indicator in early 2007, said the firm`s business and consumer confidence survey released Monday.

Buying a house reached an index rating of 164 in July--the highest index since tracking started in February 2007. It was 157 in May and 146 in March.

"Consumers continue to see advantage in purchasing a house in the current economy," said David Bryan an advisory partner in PricewaterhouseCooper`s Edmonton office.

Nine hundred Albertans and 246 business leaders were surveyed by telephone in late July by Leger Marketing. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 per cent, 19 times of 20.

Businesses are growing more optimistic about the economy, results suggest. The business confidence index inched to 103 in July, up from 101 in May--when it crossed the 100 mark for the first time since May 2008.

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Albertan Women Lead $75m Lawsuit

Two Alberta women are leading a $75-million class-action lawsuit on behalf of as many as 3,000 investors seeking to recover tens of millions of dollars put into property deals.

Jennifer Lofgren of Calgary and Lucia de Wet of Pincher Creek are spearheading the suit, which seeks to recover funds put into projects in Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Hawaii during the past four years.

The lawsuit names Jeanette Cleone Couch, the named officer and director of Shire International Real Estate, plus several other project companies as defendants.

A statement of claim filed at Calgary`s Court of Queen`s Bench alleges that between 2005 and 2009, "the defendants illegally solicited funds from hundreds or thousands of investors in connection with approximately 10 purported real estate development projects, none of which was genuine or as represented.

"In total, the defendants raised approximately $75-million in connection with the projects, none of which ever came to fruition or produced any meaningful returns to investors."

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China`s Crude-Oil Imports Raced to Record in July

China`s crude-oil imports raced to a record in July, up 42% from last year`s weak base, while refiners raised output to their highest yet as stimulus measures stoked demand in the world`s No. 2 consumer.

Although some of the increased gasoline and diesel production is being sold overseas, or pumped into domestic depots, swelling fuel stocks at home, the raft of data painted a distinctly bullish picture for oil markets that have already doubled since February on hopes of recovering global demand.

"We believe the July [crude imports] figure is not a fluke, nor is it driven by artificial strategic petroleum purchases..." said analyst Gordon Kwan of Mirae Asset Securties. "The record number is driven by strong fuel demand and commercial restocking."

China, which has effectively overtaken Japan as the world`s No. 2 crude buyer, imported 19.63 million tonnes, or 4.62 million bpd, last month, up 14% from June and easily surpassing the previous record high in March 2008 of 4.07 million bpd, preliminary data on the General Administration of Customs website, www. customs.gov.cn,showed yesterday. The 42% surge in July imports from last year, the fastest rise since January 2006, was stronger than data last week showing a 25% leap in seaborne imports alone.

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City Bucks Housing Downturn

The B-word is back in Edmonton`s new housing market.

Not boom, but building.

Total housing starts in the Edmonton region rose in July by 10.8 per cent compared with a year earlier --the first year-over-year increase since January 2008.

Builders began 451 homes in July compared with 407 started in July 2008, according to preliminary figures released Tuesday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

But the sharp divide between the single-family and multi-family markets continues to deepen.

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Calgary`s West LRT a `Signature Project`

CALGARY - The long-awaited, much-contested west leg of the LRT is On track and by this time next year major construction on the first new C-Train line in more than two decades will be underway.

"I`m looking forward to it," says Georgina Bosch, one of thousands of west-side residents who are excited about the prospect of finally seeing the line stretch out to their busy neighbourhoods.

Bosch, now retired, would have loved the LRT when she was working downtown, but imagines she`ll still use it whenever she heads into the core--especially "given the cost of parking."

But before people in the city`s west end can take advantage of LRT service-- enjoyed by other Calgarians in the south, northwest and northeast for years -- sections of Bow Trail will be dug up, roads rerouted and three years of traffic chaos will ensue.

For many, starting work on the 8.4 kilometres of track that will service the growing western edge of the city is a significant milestone.

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`Calgarians will be Proud` of East Village`s Rebirth

CALGARY - The street in front of his home has been torn up for months. His sidewalk is next.

Water has temporarily been turned off, streetlights have disappeared, shrubs trampled and flower beds threatened with extinction.

But for Steve Gin, the often frustrating work underway in the East Village has been a long time coming and he believes the current pain is well worth what the community will gain.

"I`m over the moon about work starting," said Gin, who has lived in the Orange Lofts for the past five years. "It`s so overdue."

The East Village, after numerous false starts and setbacks, has begun its transformation -- though it`s still not much to look at.

About 12 blocks in the neighbourhood are currently under construction--the land being raised above the flood plain as much as 2.5 metres in some spots, roads being realigned, wider sidewalks and new lighting being installed.

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The Future of Calgary Transit

The southeast is one of the city`s fastest-growing areas, but it shares LRT service with the equally bustling southwest, making that line the busiest in the city.

"A southeast line would intercept quite a number of commuters," Calgary Transit`s manager of transit planning Neil McKendrick said.

With an unfunded $2-billion price tag--and the need for a downtown subway to be built before other lines can proceed--the southeast LRT line remains at least 10 to 15 years away. It would run underground downtown to the edge of Eau Claire.

In the meantime, bus rapid transit will begin along the route the future southeast line will travel. Park-and-ride lots along that path will begin to be built next year.

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Ally

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Albertans Upbeat about Buying a House

More Albertans believe now is the time to buy a home than in anytime since PricewaterhouseCoopers began tracking the indicator in early 2007, said the firm`s business and consumer confidence survey released Monday.

Buying a house reached an index rating of 164 in July--the highest index since tracking started in February 2007. It was 157 in May and 146 in March.

"Consumers continue to see advantage in purchasing a house in the current economy," said David Bryan an advisory partner in PricewaterhouseCooper`s Edmonton office.

Nine hundred Albertans and 246 business leaders were surveyed by telephone in late July by Leger Marketing. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 per cent, 19 times of 20.

Businesses are growing more optimistic about the economy, results suggest. The business confidence index inched to 103 in July, up from 101 in May--when it crossed the 100 mark for the first time since May 2008.

Read the full article here.
 
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