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December 2010 Ontario Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for December 2010.
 

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Hamilton`s LRT plan a roadmap for the future

Mass transit is an essential part of planning for any modern city – be it one of Canada`s largest cities such as Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal, or one of the smaller centres such as Calgary or Ottawa.

Hamilton, though it is often not mentioned among the country`s most forward-thinking cities, is every bit as leading edge when it comes to a transit plan for the future.

Indeed, Hamilton`s light-rail transit (LRT) proposal could well continue the transformation of a city already in transition.

LRT is more than just a transit project, according to a proposal and request for funding prepared by the Hamilton Public Works Department`s Environmental and Sustainable Infrastructure Division. It is tool to shape the city and community, and could be the largest capital project the city has ever built.

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Ontario secondary suites a boon to home owners and builders

The Ontario Home Builders` Association is applauding the provincial government`s move to make it easier to build secondary suites in homes, saying it will help create more affordable housing.

The Long-Term Affordable Housing Strategy will remove some of the barriers (such as municipal bylaws) to including secondary suites, such as basement apartments, in new and existing homes across the province.

"We`ve been advocating for this for a long time and attending a series of consultations," says OHBA president Bob Finnigan. "Secondary suites are a simple solution, the low-hanging fruit, and we slowly got the government to realize how many thousands of affordable housing units this could create."

Finnigan says in many municipalities such as Mississauga and Barrie, it has been very difficult to get approval to build secondary suites, even though many homes have large basements.

He says the creation of secondary suites would benefit everyone from elderly people who can live with family members, to young single people looking for affordable places to live in the city, to couples trying to build a nest egg. It can also help homeowners with their mortgage payments.

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`Condo-monium` strikes the GTA

The musical references in my column last week seemed to strike a chord with readers as I continued to get comments about it throughout this week.

On that note, I`d like to put the song "Rise Up, Rise Up" by the Parachute Club in the back of your mind as you read on about the state of the highrise condo market in the GTA.

George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc., was bang-on a month ago when he said that the sales statistics for the GTA highrise housing market showed the month of September ending on a decidedly upbeat note, pointing to a very healthy final quarter of 2010.

Carras` prescience was confirmed this week with the news that developers sold 3,159 new condo suites in the GTA in October.

That`s the best October ever for total sales and the second-best month all-time for highrise, with the record being set back in June 2007, when whole projects were selling out in a day.

And based on the street-talk in the industry, November is shaping-up to be a lot like October.

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TREB: Misconceptions about the HST

Even though consumers have been dealing with the HST since July 1, it appears there is still confusion about how it is applied to housing.

There is good news and bad news: The good news is that if you are buying a resale home, you will not pay HST on the purchase price. On the other hand, if you are buying a newly constructed home, HST will apply.

The purchase price of resale housing was never subject to the old provincial sales tax or the federal goods and service tax. When the provincial government began considering implementing a harmonized sales tax, realtors fought hard to ensure that the old exemptions for resale housing were maintained, which is exactly what happened. As a result, if you are buying a resale home, you don`t have to worry about paying HST on the price of the home.

Unfortunately, the same is not true for buyers of newly constructed homes, which are subject to additional tax under the HST. Newly constructed housing has always been subject to the GST. Now, with the HST, new housing is also be subject to PST, meaning thousands of dollars in added costs for home buyers of new housing.

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GTA home sales down in November

The Toronto existing home market seems to be stabilizing, with an assist from record-low mortgage rates in the third quarter of the year.

Sales of existing homes in the Toronto market were down by 13 per cent in November, according to figures made public Friday by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

But the gap between the year-over-year figures is decreasing. In October, sales were down by 21 per cent.

On a month-over-month basis the seasonally adjusted annual rate was 88,100, the fourth straight month of an increase.

"The fact that we are down year over year is not surprising since we are coming off a peak, but we are now seeing a month over month increase which is a real return from the lower levels we had been experiencing," said Pascal Gauthier, senior economist with the Toronto Dominion Bank. "Lower mortgage rates are obviously having an impact."

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Ontario a bright spot in weak jobs future

Canada`s unemployment rate dropped to its lowest rate in almost two years last month, despite the economy creating only 15,200 new part-time jobs.

Statistics Canada reported Friday that the country`s jobless rate dropped three-tenths of a point to 7.6 per cent in November, the lowest reported rate since January 2009.

But, the agency notes, that dip is almost entirely due to 43,600 people, mostly youth, leaving the labour market. Also of note, while part-time work rose by 26,700 across the country in November there were 11,500 fewer full-time workers.

"The overall job gain is middle-of-the-road, but the drop in full-time, private sector employment suggests that the economy is struggling to create new work now that the recession`s job losses have been recouped," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist BMO Financial Group in a note.

"The good news is that more Canadians are working than ever before. The bad news is that the quality of those jobs may be a tad lacking in some cases."

Porter`s sentiment about the quality of jobs was echoed by Eric Kam, associate professor of economics at Ryerson University.

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Ontario`s surge drives housing starts higer

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports housing starts took a jump in November.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 187,200 units, up from 167,800 in October.

CMHC attributes the hike primarily to a strong increase in urban multiple starts in Ontario.

The agency says Ontario`s increase — based on several major apartment projects in Toronto — was more than enough to offset declines in all other regions of the country.

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Modest rise expected in Toronto housing prices next year

Toronto existing home sales will drop in 2011, but prices are forecast to rise at about the pace of inflation.

"More balanced housing market conditions overall will exist in 2011 and inventory levels should remain stable," said ReMax in its housing outlook forecast released Tuesday. "Slow but steady economic recovery is forecast for the GTA moving forward."

Prices are expected to hit $440,000 at the end of 2011, up from $430,000 at the end of this year.

Despite the uptick in pricing which is within the target inflation rate set by the Bank of Canada, sales are expected to drop by 3 per cent to 83,000 units, compared with the expected 85,500 units at the end of this year.

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Court ruling hurts city`s effort to control student housing

St. Catharines` efforts to crack down on student housing have failed, with a landlord winning a precedent-setting legal victory in a boarding house case.

Members of the Niagara Student Housing Association pooled their resources to defend the case of member Howard Jung, one of hundreds of landlords who received inspection notices from the city last summer.

In Jung`s case, the inspector deemed his property at 2 Bessey St. to be a boarding house and said it was therefore unsafe. He ordered Jung to either reduce the number of tenants or comply with an expensive list of upgrades.

Jung appealed — and won.

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Toronto Vehicle-Registration tax closer to chopping block

Rob Ford is one step closer to keeping his promise to kill the $60 vehicle-registration tax.

The mayor`s hand-picked executive committee voted unanimously to scrap the fee Thursday at a meeting dedicated almost entirely to campaign pledges Mr. Ford believes he can fulfill at council next week.

The executive also endorsed slashing councillors` office budgets by 40 per cent; reducing the mayor`s office budget by 20 per cent; condensing the 2011 budget timetable; and asking the province to make Toronto Transit Commission strikes illegal.

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Ford casts three votes in favour of LRT strategy
As Rob Ford`s fledgling administration presses ahead with an election promise to scrap Transit City in favour of subways, a Globe and Mail analysis of the new mayor`s council record indicates he cast at least three votes in favour of the light-rail strategy, or elements of it, during David Miller`s second term in office.

The details of Mr. Ford`s position – he has also cast votes against elements of the Transit City strategy – come amid a mounting debate about whether the new council should have a say in the decision to abandon the $8.15-billion plan.

The Ontario government wants a full council vote, and incoming TTC chair Karen Stintz promised such a debate by February. But Mr. Ford has said the TTC alone can approve the shift. His officials also claim that Mr. Miller never held a specific debate at council to approve his Transit City strategy.

Herewith, the legislative record:

Fall, 2006:
David Miller`s re-election platform includes pledge to build light rail network, dubbed "Transit City," which builds on previous TTC studies.

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What can Toronto learn from Melbourne?
Robert Adams, director of city design for Melbourne, Australia, arrived in Toronto this week for a talk hosted by the non-profit organization 8-80 Cities. His visit came at a somewhat inauspicious time: Mr. Adams delivered an address on the importance of pedestrian traffic and bike lanes on the same night that hockey commentator Don Cherry derided Toronto cyclists as "pinkos" at the inauguration of the city`s new mayor, Rob Ford. To some, Mr. Adams`s accomplishments are a daydream vision of what Toronto could some day become. Mr. Adams lobbied to make transit in hiscity free before 7 a.m., drastically changing the city`s commuting dynamic, and cars were banned from Melbourne`s busiest street. During his tenure, Melbourne has been transformed into the third most livable city in the world, according to the Economist. As a sign of his influence, his address at the Design Exchange this week was attended by two members of Mr. Ford`s executive team, as well as an array of planners, city thinkers and transit officials. "It`s so hard to arrive in a city and pass judgment, but I think you`re heading in the right direction," he said of Toronto. "At some stage you have to stop talking and start implementing."

On what makes a great city

When Mr. Adams arrived in Melbourne in 1983 as a young architect, the city was dubbed the "rust bucket of Australia." Asked to come up with a planning vision, Mr. Adams began with a simple notion: Improve the streets, improve the city.Under his watch, sidewalks were widened, trees were planted and sidewalk cafés proliferated. "We really slowly built up the experience of walking downtown," he said. He closed Melbourne`s main thoroughfare, Bourke Street, to cars before 7 p.m., transforming it into wide lanes for pedestrians, bikes, streetcars and buses. More than 35,000 pedestrians now walk the street each day, up from 12,000 ten years ago, and business has returned as well.

On how cities will grow in the future

Like most urban centres around the world, the population of Melbourne is expected to double in the next 40 years. But Mr. Adams does not believe growth requires suburban sprawl or a massive expansion of infrastructure. Instead, he says you can double the population of a city by building on only 7.5 per cent of the land, focusing residential development around existing transit lines. An advocate for mid-rise housing, Mr. Adams says the necessary capacity can be achieved with buildings that are just five to eight stories high. "We`re reaching the end of the suburb and the car-dominated society. Whether you like it or not, it`s not a sustainable way of doing things."

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GTA housing market to stay hot in 2011

Ontario home sales will rise by 5 per cent in 2011, while prices should hit a record high, according to a report on the state of the Canadian real estate market.

Central 1 Credit Union says a strong market in 2011 will also see housing starts increase by 9 per cent next year, in what has been the most bullish forecast for 2011 so far.

"An undersupply in the new home market will place upward pressure on resale home prices," said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with Central 1. "This will provide an incentive for builders to increase housing starts."

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Far fewer apartments for rent in GTA

Jason Freisen is hoping to buy a condo. But he`s unsure of the Toronto market, so he`s staying put in his rental for now.

The 26-year-old bank teller has been living with his girlfriend for the past two years in a six-plex on the east side of Toronto.

"Prices are really high right now, so we`re still trying to figure out what to do," said Freisen. "I think it can be a little scary for first time buyers out there trying to figure out where interest rates and prices are going."

According to figures released by Statistics Canada Thursday, new home prices increased by 0.2 per cent in October over September, as the Toronto housing market continued to show growth.

Year-over-year increases are now at 2.9 per cent.

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Ottawa invests $300M in aerospace jobs for Mississauga

The federal government will invest $300 million in Pratt & Whitney Canada, creating hundreds of new, highly skilled jobs at the company`s Mississauga plant, Industry Minister Tony Clement said Monday.

Clement says the $1-billion project will create more than 700 jobs during the project work phase and more than 2,000 jobs during the 15-year benefits phase.

"On behalf of the Harper Government, I am pleased to announce this major investment, which is creating jobs and strengthening Canada`s economy," Clement said.

"The project we are investing in today will create and maintain Canadian research jobs, encourage public and private partnerships, and keep Canada at the forefront of the international aerospace industry."

Clement said the project will lead to lighter aircraft engines with more power, better fuel consumption and improved durability as well as give off fewer emissions and make less noise.

John Saabas president of Pratt & Whitney Canada said he is proud that Pratt and Whitney is one of Canada`s largest investors in aerospace.

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Stacking the deck against Ontario landlords

Remember the early-`90`s thriller Pacific Heights? A young San Francisco couple buy their dream house and rent out a portion to help pay the mortgage. When slick Carter Hayes -- played by an oddly menacing Michael Keaton -- rolls up in a Porsche and fancy suit, he seems like the perfect tenant. Twenty minutes later, Hayes becomes a slippery cockroach-breeding con artist who changes the locks on his door and quickly becomes a domestic bete noire.

It`s a made-up Hollywood tale -- yet an instructive one. Consider that if Carter Hayes took up residence in an Ontario apartment building, the province`s 2007 Residential Tenancies Act would make it very difficult for his landlord to kick him out. Who knows: He might even be able to claim his cockroaches as protected "pets."

The law appears to have been drafted on the assumption that all landlords are rich and greedy. Under the Act, a tenant can allow anyone to move into his or her unit indefinitely. So after you sign a lease for, say, a one-bedroom apartment, you can invite your unemployed buddies to come stay with you -- forever. The Act does not require you to give names, addresses or references to the landlord. Even if you decide to move out, the scrubs can stay behind until they are formally evicted, which requires a court order ... which, in some cases, the landlord cannot obtain because he doesn`t even know what name to put on the eviction notice.

Oh, and if your tenants feel like trashing the apartment a la Charlie Sheen while they live there -- or just before they leave -- they can. Tenants in Ontario are not required to pay a damage deposit, so if a tenant damages the property and the landlord discovers this when (or just after) the lease is up, the landlord has to spend his own time and money taking them to Small Claims Court. However, since tenants don`t have to give a forwarding address, the landlord can`t serve them court papers. As a result, either new tenants pay for the damage through increased rents, or (as is more likely) the landlord pays out of his own pocket.

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A grim assessment of McGuinty`s government

This week, Ontario Auditor-General Jim McCarter delivered his annual report. A fitting title would have been: Ontario 2010: Paying more, getting less.

Focusing on health care and public protection, Mr. McCarter`s review presents a picture of government mismanagement and bureaucratic unaccountability. While tax dollars fly ever faster out the door, Ontarians wait longer to see a doctor, haven`t benefitted from promised job creation and find their properties improperly assessed. State spending is ineffective, poorly tracked or downright detrimental, leaving taxpayers wondering what value they are getting for their money.

Consuming 40% of the provincial budget, the health-care system proved to be the worst offender. Wait times in Ontario`s emergency rooms stretch an average of 10 hours -- in some cases, as high as 26--chiefly because of a shortage of hospital beds. This, despite the government spending an additional $200-million over the past two years to bring wait times down. The AG further found that over 50,000 hospital patients stayed in hospital longer than medically necessary because of the time it took to arrange post-discharge care. In addition, the government bases home-care services on out-of-date allocations rather than assessment of current needs.

The organ donation system is similarly dysfunctional: 40% of organ donations went to lower-priority patients instead of high-priority cases, with no attendant explanation.

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Barrie`s economy on the mend, CMHC says

BARRIE - A real estate market slowdown that began this summer should continue through early 2011, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says.

In its quarterly housing market outlook, CMHC notes the first half of 2010 showed relatively strong home sales, as first-time buyers took advantage of low mortgage rates in late 2009 and early 2010. That market segment, however, began drying up in the summer.

"Many homebuyers purchased early in 2010 to avoid anticipated mortgage rate increases. This depleted pool of potential buyers explains the current slowdown in housing demand," said CMHC market analyst Edgard Navarrete.

"This effect will dissipate in 2011. Consequently, with continued job growth, activity in both the new and resale market will pick up gradually in 2011."

The CMHC forecasts the average price of a new single detached home in the Barrie area to grow by just over four per cent this year – but remain relatively flat in 2011. CMHC reports the average price of a single detached home rose 4.4 per cent, to $450,000, and forecasts a slight increase next year to $451,500. In 2007, the average single detached house price in Barrie was $329,505, which is higher than the average MLS listing, which sold for $277,000.

The city`s vacancy rate is the highest in years, at 3.9 per cent, and an average two-bedroom apartment rented for $975 in October.

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Transit deal possible with Ford, Metrolinx

This one should be easy for Mayor Rob Ford.

As one who campaigned on a platform of "respect for taxpayers" and "transparency and accountability" at city hall, Ford should present his new transportation vision to Toronto council, not attempt an end-run around local politicians.

Ford`s plan would focus more on subways and less on light rail. But the new roadmap is one that a confident new mayor, armed with a strong mandate, would want council to embrace. In doing so, he`d blunt the criticism he will surely get from proponents of Transit City, the light rail plan that is funded and under construction — the plan he`s vowed to halt.

Such an open approach will be messy and sometimes embarrassing. Council`s left wing will orchestrate a strike force for a heated debate. In other words, democracy will break out, and that is hardly a bad thing.

One wonders, though, if there are two sides in this debate, how come, over the past three years, there was no — as my grandmother would say — no bang-a-rang or jangaroo at council over the Transit City plan?

Because it was carefully orchestrated, stealthily introduced, woven into the fabric of city policy bit by bit, approved in pieces, and finally became a fait accompli, attracting dissent from none but the most ardent opponent.

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