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December 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for December 2012.
 

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Canada's GDP expands in December






The Canadian economy expanded in September at a moderate pace given the recent weakness in overall economic conditions around the globe, especially from the United States; Canada`s largest trading partner along.





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We blame weathermen for bad forecasts, why not the Bank of Canada




The news that the Canadian economy grew at a glacial annualized rate of 0.6 per cent in the third quarter was well under expectations. It was significantly lower than the Bank of Canada`s forecast of 1 per cent growth, though it is possible that the third-quarter results will be revised upwards in the future.



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First-time homebuyers face continuing affordability problems






An associate told me recently that he, his wife and two young children, after living for many years in a rental apartment, finally moved into a detached home in an established neighbourhood.




Here's the thing, though. David, who didn't want his last name used, just turned 40, and the home is owned by his wife's parents, who continue to live there and retain ownership of the property.




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Canada's growth slumps




OTTAWA ` Canada`s economy has hit stall speed with few areas of strong support, setting back any talk of interest rates hikes in the new year and likely restarting calls for more government action.




The economy slumped to 0.6 per cent in the third quarter ` below even the gloomy 0.8 consensus and about one third what the Bank of Canada had predicted as recently as the summer ` as trouble loomed on the export side, housing and business investment.





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Rentseeker.ca and Kijiji announce listing partnership





Landlords and Property Managers can say goodbye to daily manual postings. Kijiji, Canada's most popular free, local, online classifieds website, and RentSeeker.ca, Canada's leading Internet Marketing Company and ILS, have partnered to offer joint listing options with automatic syndication.







Once Landlords place Property ads on RentSeeker.ca, they can now opt to sign up to have the ads

syndicate automatically, as an additional service - through Kijiji. Available as of December 1st, this unique syndication service is just one more way RentSeeker has raised the bar in the Internet Listing Service arena. "This partnership gives us the ability to make posting to Canada's leading Real Estate website that much easier for the Real Estate industry and Property Management community," said John Graham, Head of Real Estate at Kijiji, "and we're really excited to be working together with a company as creative and innovative in online marketing for the Real Estate industry as RentSeeker."





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Canadian vs. U.S. economy: GDP growth in the third quarter





Canadians have been patting themselves on the back in recent years over the country`s economic resilience in the wake of the financial crisis, but if recent data is anything to go by, our days of economic supremacy may be numbered.



Canada`s economy grew at slightly more than one-fifth the pace of the U.S. economy in the third quarter of 2012, according to data from StatsCan and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. While Canada`s growth amounted to 0.6 per cent at annualized pace, the U.S. saw GDP growth of 2.7 per cent in the same period, according to recently revised figures.





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5 things to watch for in the Bank of Canada's rate decision






When the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision Tuesday, it will do so with the Canadian economy at its most sluggish level this year.




Last week`s GDP data from Statistics Canada showed the Canadian economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.6% in the third quarter, far lower than the second quarter`s 1.7% and well below the Bank of Canada`s 1% forecast.





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CIBC warns that mismatch job market affecting economic growth






TORONTO - A CIBC report released Monday suggests Canada's economic prosperity is at risk due to a labour market split that sees high-demand positions go unfilled while lower-skilled workers languish in unemployment.




"We have people without jobs and jobs without people," said author and deputy economist Benjamin Tal.





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High demand means the world needs all of Canada's oil




Global demand for crude is growing so strongly that the world needs `every single drop of Canadian oil,` the International Energy Agency`s chief economist said on Monday, playing down fears that growing U.S. production could hit Canadian exports.




Fatih Birol said that even if U.S. output rises as much as the agency expects, the country would still need to import four million barrels a day and that Canada is an obvious supplier.






In its annual forecast this month, the IEA said the United States could come close to energy self-sufficiency by 2035, largely because of the boom in development of unconventional light oil resources.





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Fracking's health risks





The good news is that a public health department` New York State`s Department of Health (DOH)` is finally undertaking an assessment of fracking`s likely health risks. The bad news is that it`s questionable whether it will allow adequate time to do a credible and complete job. So says a new scientific watchdog group launched to assure that science, rather than expediency prevails.



Up until now government has relied on the gas industry`s blanket assurances of safety. The industry routinely tries to conflate the safety of vertical gas drilling (in use for a over a century) with horizontal fracking (in use for a little over a decade), a method which deploys a potent arsenal of chemicals so hazardous they defy known waste treatment methods.





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Housing downturn may help young buyers




A cooler housing market isn`t all bad news, a major Canadian bank says.


Lower prices could benefit young couples struggling to save for a down payment and also retirees who dream of moving to British Columbia, the report by CIBC World Markets predicts.





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Condo buyers unfazed by rising fees




For a mere $60,000, you can get yourself a condominium in Toronto`s still-expensive housing market. The only catch: the condo fee.




In the city`s west end, albeit away from the glitter and glory of the downtown core, Ben Myers, vice-president of condominium research firm Urbanation Inc., which tracks the Toronto market, has watched prices plunge in some buildings because the fees have jumped through the roof, scaring off potential buyers.





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EU 'very close' to an 'ambitious' trade deal with Canada




The European Union is "very close" to an "ambitious" free-trade deal with Canada, its trade commissioner said Thursday, with negotiations still seemingly needed on agriculture and investor protections, among other issues.




European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht couldn't confirm when the trade talks would conclude toward the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, but he said the EU is "united in working together with Canada to close the gaps on the final issues."





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CMHC's business shrinks amid Ottawa insurance cap


Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.`s insurance volumes dove 37 per cent in the latest quarter from a year ago, as Ottawa seeks to rein in the Crown corporation`s growth.




The bulk of the decline stems from the government`s decision to cap the total amount of insurance that CMHC can have in force at $600-billion, a move that has forced the mortgage insurer to shrink the amount of portfolio or bulk insurance it offers banks to virtually nil. (Portfolio insurance enables banks to protect broad swaths of mortgages that aren`t required to be insured, which reduces capital requirements for the banks).



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30% of Canadian businesses face labour shortage




CALGARY ` A new report on Canada`s job market indicates 30 per cent of the country`s businesses face a skilled labour shortage, which is double the rate seen in early 2010.




And the issue is more acute in Alberta.




The report, released Monday by CIBC World Markets, also said Canada`s job market shows a growing divide between have and have not occupations.





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Dundee deals keep TD rolling in the green




The next time an executive from the Dundee group of companies meets with an executive from TD Securities for lunch, both should insist that the banker pays.




The reason: through its seemingly never ending flow of equity financings the three realty companies within the Dundee group ` Dundee REIT, Dundee International REIT and Dundee Industrial ` have made significant contributions to the profit pool at the dealer and to its retail brokerage network given that TD Securities was the lead manager/book runner on all the financings. Now the issuer may demand a little quid pro quo.





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'Dorky' Canada in the groove





CALGARY, AB, Dec. 2, 2012/ Troy Media/ ` Most of us who have lived through the turbulent teen years know what it`s like. You want to be noticed . . . but noticed for the right reasons. You don`t want to be noticed and laughed at for wearing rubber boots to school in Grade 7 (true confessions of this economist!), or for being picked last by the jock captains in high school gym basketball (sigh).



But you do
want to be noticed for having the correct Jordache jeans, the highest mark in calculus, and the latest Texas Instrument calculator in its faux denim vinyl case (I did much better on these indicators).





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The complex effects of low interest rates on consumption and investment




WHEN interest rates hit double digits in the late 1970s, house-builders sent planks of wood to the Federal Reserve in protest. With rates stuck near zero, the protests now come from the opposite direction. The retired complain of a `war on savings`.




The Fed cut rates to current levels at the end of 2008 and has promised to keep them there until 2015. Since 2008, personal interest income has plunged 30%, or $432 billion at an annual rate, more than 4% of disposable income. David Einhorn, a hedge-fund manager, likens zero rates to an overdose of jam doughnuts: too much of a good thing. Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, describes the Fed`s policy as `expropriating responsible savers in favour of irresponsible banks`, and thinks it should raise rates modestly.





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Two-thirds of Canadians make emotional investment decisions: BMO Survey




TORONTO - Two-thirds of Canadians surveyed by the Bank of Montreal are not able to keep their emotions in check when they make investment decisions and a majority have invested on impulse.




The BMO Psychology of Investing Report also finds four-in-10 respondents to the Pollara poll say emotions play a role in their investment decisions.




And 60 per cent say they've invested on impulse at least once.





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