Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

Do you like it hot or cold?

RedlineBrett

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Messages
2,289
Curious to hear what market investors like best?



mid 2008-mid 2010 was a down market, great time to buy but tough to find tenants and we watched peak values erode. Harder to raise money despite lots of great deals everywhere.



stayed even for a few years but mid 2013 through to now has been quite hot. Great rents and values but very difficult to buy with mostly overpriced junk on the market. Many have money to invest but nothing to buy...



I would guess if you were building a portfolio you would prefer a down market, but if you are standing pat or selling you want it hot.



Knowing that the vast majority of REIN members are buyers I'm curious to hear if they like the hot market we have right now?
 

Dan Golby

0
REIN Member
Joined
Mar 17, 2011
Messages
133
Hot markets bring out more and hopefully better renters so that is a nice bonus if you do well at tenant screening.



Personally I'm taking advantage of the hot market and upgrading my portfolio so that when the market slows down I will have properties that are more suitable for a long term hold in my humble opinion....



So one vote for HOT:)
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
Assuming continued Chinese and Indian growth, thus resource demand, assuming relatively low interest rates until about 2030, assuming oil above US$80, gas over $4 or a Can $ slightly below par ( say 90 cents) and assuming no NDP-Liberal wealth destroying coalition I'd say we have a solid 5-8 year of rising prices and a solid economy in W-Canada. Any asset trading today for around $140,000/door in Edmonton will be $200,000+/door in 2020, or any single family house for around $400,000 today will be well over $500,000 in 2020 in Alberta.



so yes, 2010 would have been a better year to buy, or 2004, or 1994, or 1982 or 1960, or 1945 .. But failing that it is better now than next year or 2016 or waiting for a slight cooling in 2020 !
 

itchycow

0
Registered
Joined
Jul 9, 2012
Messages
25
That's a good question, Brett.



According to Thomas' projections, it's going to stay hot for quite a few more years... very interesting.



One major problem that has come up with the "hot" market is access to funding. Banks seem to have changed their lending criteria so much that now even "professional" investors can't access the capital they need to keep buying. A freeing up of capital would make me appreciate a "hot" market a little more.
 

bizaro86

0
Registered
Joined
Jan 29, 2008
Messages
1,025
I don't like the hot market at all. Too much competition to buy new properties. It's worked out not bad for us, as we've sold a few things this year at good prices, but ended up just doing RRSP/mortgage paydown with the $, as I'm not seeing anything that meets my criteria. Of course, a new baby means I'm spending less time looking and enjoying the reduced management load of having fewer properties...



Michael
 

KevinSolomon

0
Registered
Joined
May 19, 2014
Messages
44
I like it cold. Dead cold. It's the best. By far. Hands down.



Investing is soooooo easy when it's cold. Brainless. Free money.
 

RedlineBrett

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Messages
2,289
[quote user=KevinSolomon]

Investing is soooooo easy when it's cold. Brainless. Free money.


Well I don't think I'd go quite this far, but it certainly is easier to buy if you do a proper job of it!
 

RedlineBrett

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Messages
2,289
[quote user=bizaro86] It's worked out not bad for us, as we've sold a few things this year at good prices, but ended up just doing RRSP/mortgage paydown with the $, as I'm not seeing anything that meets my criteria.


You wouldn't be the only one banking up for the next buying cycle :)
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
[quote user=KevinSolomon]I like it cold. Dead cold. It's the best. By far. Hands down.



Investing is soooooo easy when it's cold. Brainless. Free money.

[/quote]

Where are you buying these days then, as few spots are cold, and those cold are cold for a reason ?



N-Korea ? Libya ? Syria ? Sudan ? E-Ukraine ? Crimea ?
 
Last edited:

bizaro86

0
Registered
Joined
Jan 29, 2008
Messages
1,025
Lack of action doesn't necessarily denote lack of thoughtful consideration. I haven't bought anything for nearly a year, since I haven't found anything in that time that meets my criteria. Warren Buffett has said there are no called strikes in investing, it makes sense to wait and purchase something where the numbers work.



Regards,



Michael



PS: I should mention that others might have different requirements, or different types of property they're looking to purchase (either by geography, property type, or price point). Just because I haven't found anything lately doesn't mean I've stopped looking.
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
Perhaps you are looking in the wrong places ? Many markets, both in Canada and the US (and of course, international) exist where buying makes total sense !
 

KevinSolomon

0
Registered
Joined
May 19, 2014
Messages
44
[quote user=ThomasBeyer]

Where are you buying these days then, as few spots are cold, and those cold are cold for a reason ?



N-Korea ? Libya ? Syria ? Sudan ? E-Ukraine ? Crimea ?





Buying nothing. I'm retired. It's time to relax now. Life is too short to be working for money.
 

KevinSolomon

0
Registered
Joined
May 19, 2014
Messages
44
[quote user=ThomasBeyer][quote user=KevinSolomon] Life is too short to be working for money.


Let your real estate work for you !


It already is.



All the property I bought when the market was dead cold in the US is just throwing off money.



It is one of the big contributors to my retirement at 40.



[quote user=KevinSolomon]I like it cold. Dead cold. It's the best. By far. Hands down.



Investing is soooooo easy when it's cold. Brainless. Free money.
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
Fair enough. Holding, and sitting on your ASSets is certainly a good idea right now ...
 

Millions

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 6, 2007
Messages
214
Assuming continued Chinese and Indian growth, thus resource demand, assuming relatively low interest rates until about 2030, assuming oil above US$80, gas over $4 or a Can $ slightly below par ( say 90 cents) and assuming no NDP-Liberal wealth destroying coalition I'd say we have a solid 5-8 year of rising prices and a solid economy in W-Canada. Any asset trading today for around $140,000/door in Edmonton will be $200,000+/door in 2020, or any single family house for around $400,000 today will be well over $500,000 in 2020 in Alberta.



so yes, 2010 would have been a better year to buy, or 2004, or 1994, or 1982 or 1960, or 1945 .. But failing that it is better now than next year or 2016 or waiting for a slight cooling in 2020 !

##

Considering the opposite has happened and real estate has plunged once again (my condo I bought in 2007 is not worth about 35% less after 8 years if work), where do you think interest rates are heading now? Do you think they will still stay rock bottom until 2030?
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
##

Considering the opposite has happened and real estate has plunged once again (my condo I bought in 2007 is not worth about 35% less after 8 years if work), where do you think interest rates are heading now? Do you think they will still stay rock bottom until 2030?
Well we had oil well below $80, gas well below $4 and we have a wealth destroying NDP in Alberta and a wealth sucking Liberal party federally now so four of my growth assumption did not happen.

I think Alberta will stay muted to 2020 but interest rates will be very low well past 2030, likely heading lower than today. In Europe they are far lower than here and since we are now embracing European energy and debt creation policies we will head there too.

Buying income producing assets that yield 4-8% with money that costs 2% still makes sense almost anywhere in Canada, US, Australia or Northern Europe, or select hot spots I know little about ( Syria ? Korea ? China ? Brazil ? Mexico ? Sierra Leon ? ) .. Including Alberta. Not buying there right now but also not selling, thus sitting on our ASSets and managing them impeccably with minimal upgrades as lower cost rental are critical right now.
 
Last edited:

Cory Sperle

0
REIN Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2010
Messages
826
Considering the inaccuracy of those who try to predict future real estate values, what I believe will happen is this.

1. In 2017 real estate will start to rebound on the prairies and cool off elsewhere.
2. Oil will continue to rebound at a slow rate, $60 by 2017 and $75+ by 2018.
3. Those that bought RE in Sask and Alberta in 2015-2017 are thankful they did. Buying opportunities cease in 2017-18.
4. NDP will be punted from Alberta, and tax hikes and carbon taxes will be rolled back.
5. Peter McKay will return as conservative leader and demolish Trudeau in 2019.
6. Trump becomes president, Keystone immediately gets built. Other pipelines in Canada also built.

I think we are in a perfect storm of lows, which will soon come a perfect storm of highs, which is why I believe everyone should pick up as much cash flow real estate as possible, right now.
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
Considering the inaccuracy of those who try to predict future real estate values, what I believe will happen is this.

1. In 2017 real estate will start to rebound on the prairies and cool off elsewhere.
2. Oil will continue to rebound at a slow rate, $60 by 2017 and $75+ by 2018.
3. Those that bought RE in Sask and Alberta in 2015-2017 are thankful they did. Buying opportunities cease in 2017-18.
4. NDP will be punted from Alberta, and tax hikes and carbon taxes will be rolled back.

I think we are in a perfect storm of lows, which will soon come a perfect storm of highs, which is why I believe everyone should pick up as much cash flow real estate as possible, right now.

right on !

5. Peter McKay will return as conservative leader and demolish Trudeau in 2019.
6. Trump becomes president, Keystone immediately gets built. Other pipelines in Canada also built.
Both highly unlikely. Trudeau will need at least 4 or 8 more years after 2019 to thoroughly destroy Canada's formerly fairly strong financial picture with weak job growth, high energy prices, mass immigration and massive debt. Too many goodies are handed out and the conservatives never had more than 40% of the votes. Like most European countries (excl. UK) - and soon "U"SofA Canada is drifting left into socialists la la land with high taxes, anti-oil sentiments, higher and higher energy prices, less and less net incomes, massive spending and ever more debt debt DEBT with big big governments and public servants' apparatus and associated entitlements !

At best we can see a more conservative Liberal party like the one under Jean Chretien or Paul Martin, but that is also very unlikely with Mr. Sunshine as he is fairly young !

Unless immigration programs are changed we will see more and more of a back lash against massive immigration as cities will become pockets of ethnic groups. Look to Europe now to see what Canada will look like in 20 - 30 years.

The only benefit for real estate investors in this scenario is that there will be continued demand for both rental properties and new houses (albeit smaller as incomes will decline) and prices will go up up UP.
 
Last edited:
Top Bottom