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January 2010

Ally

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News articles for January 2010.
 

Ally

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Pheonix Suburb swears by benefit of LRT on the Boulevard

Seven years ago, Ravine Arora, a business owner in Tempe, Ariz., opened India Plaza, a South Asian supermarket and restaurant complex on Tempe`s Apache Boulevard.

Apache, as he describes it, has parallels with our Stony Plain Road. Tempe is a suburb of Phoenix, and the boulevard was the old U.S. Highway 60, the old Tempe main drag.

In 2002, when Arora opened up shop, it was home to a motley collection of cheap motels, warehouses, trailer parks and adult bookstores, along with other struggling small shops and restaurants. Crime and prostitution were major problems.

Then, last December, light rail transit started running down Apache Boulevard, part of a 32 km at-grade line stretching from downtown Phoenix to suburban Tempe and Mesa.

Arora couldn`t be more pleased with the result. The neighbourhood, he says, feels much busier and safer, and people are much more willing to come there to shop or dine.

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Noble Energy buys Suncor Gas assets

Suncor Energy Inc. has agreed to sell its Colorado Rockies oil and gas assets to U.S.-based Noble Energy in a deal worth US$494-million, the companies said Tuesday.

Noble Energy estimates it will acquire total reserves of about 53 million barrels of oil equivalent, or about 10,000 BOE a day, as it expands its holdings in the Wattenberg Field property in Colorado.

The acquisition, expected to close late in the first quarter of 2010, will give Noble Energy control of more than 530,000 net acres in the area with net production of 52,000 BOE a day.

"The addition of complementary drilling locations and opportunities in Wattenberg allows Noble Energy to continue to strengthen this core area," David Stover, chief operating officer with Noble Energy, said in a release. "We now have an even larger platform from which to unlock further potential in the Wattenberg field and the overall basin."

Noble Energy, based in Houston, is an oil and gas company operating primarily in the United States, along with holdings in Israel and West Africa.

Suncor, which merged with Petro-Canada last year, has been looking for buyers for its natural gas assets. A company spokesperson told the Calgary Herald in late December the company hopes to sell off those assets — worth as much as $3-billion — by the end of 2010.

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Few bright spots in Oil

Despite significant oil price gains at the end of 2009, the job outlook for the energy sector in Alberta and across Canada remains fairly flat heading into 2010, with the only relative bright spot coming in the second half of the year in certain areas --if the economy picks up, according to industry forecasts.

Not surprisingly, the oilfield services segment of the industry continues to take the biggest hit to jobs as conventional oil and gas drilling forecasts predict a stagnant year ahead, similar to 2009.

"What growth might happen in 2010 will be in the second half as a result of a recovery from the recession, whatever that might be," says Roger Soucy, president of the Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC).

"Until we get natural gas prices into a range that will entice producers to spend some money drilling wells, I just don`t see a lot of [hiring] happening," he says.

Jobs expected to see the best employment outlook in 2010 are in areas related to the oil sands -- both Imperial Oil Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc. gave the green light to previously shelved projects, for example -- and related pipeline employment.

A labour market information update from the Petroleum Human Resources Sector Council in November predicts, "the oil sands will be the greatest source of new employment in the industry," while conventional oil and gas jobs are far behind the peaks of 2006.

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Edmonton Housing Market rebounds

Edmonton`s resale housing market stumbled at the start of 2009.

Even as home sales fell dramatically and prices slipped from year-earlier levels, Charlie Ponde last January forecast a reasonably good year for real estate despite the bite of recession.

It turns out, the Realtors Association of Edmonton president wasn`t optimistic enough.

"We predicted residential sales of 15,550 this year and exceeded it in early October," Ponde said on Tuesday as the group released its final month of Multiple Listing Service figures for 2009.

"We anticipated that single-family prices would end the year at $352,000 and condos would be at $222,500."

The average prices turned out to be $364,032 and $240,322, respectively.

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Mandatory new home warranties urged

The head of a group that represents homebuilders says new home warranties should be mandatory in Alberta as they are in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

Deep Shergill, president of the Canadian Home Builders Association (Alberta), said his association would support a move by the province to require that all homebuilders register in approved warranty programs.

"We value having some sort of insurance protection for the consumers," he said. "That`s why we have it as a requirement for our membership. If the government is thinking along the same lines, we would encourage them and will provide whatever co-operation they need from us."

He said the change could be done quickly and easily.

"Anything we can do to weed out those other elements, we`re fully in favour of working with the government to that end," Shergill said.

He said the association also supports the introduction of a warranty provision that protects homeowners from damage caused when moisture gets into homes as a result of construction deficiencies.

He thinks the province is considering such a provision, but said it will take time to implement.

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Oilsands jobs Outlook to rise in 2010

Despite significant oil price gains in recent months, the job outlook for the energy sector in Alberta and across Canada remains fairly flat heading into 2010, with the only relative bright spot in the second half of the year in certain areas--if the economy picks up, according to industry forecasts.

Not surprisingly, the oilfield services segment of the industry continues to take the biggest hit to jobs as conventional oil and gas drilling forecasts predict a stagnant year ahead, similar to 2009.

"What growth might happen in 2010 will be in the second half as a result of a recovery from the recession, whatever that might be," says Roger Soucy, president of the Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC).

"Until we get natural gas prices into a range that will entice producers to spend some money drilling wells, I just don`t see a lot of (hiring) happening," he says.

Jobs expected to see the best employment outlook in 2010 are in areas related to the oilsands-- both Imperial Oil Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc. gave the green light to previously shelved projects, for example--and related pipeline employment.

A labour market information update from the Petroleum Human Resources Sector Council in November predicts, "the oilsands will be the greatest source of new employment in the industry," while conventional oil and gas jobs lag far behind the peaks of 2006.

Read the full article here.
 

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Housing Prices to rise 5% in `10

Balanced market conditions are expected to prevail in Calgary`s residential real estate market next year, with the average MLS sale price rising by five per cent and sales increasing by eight per cent.

Prices are projected to firm up, with values edging upward for the first time in nearly two years, said the Re/Max Housing Market Outlook for 2010, released Thursday. It also said an ample supply of homes should be listed for sale with inventory levels limited in high-demand areas.

"First-time buyers will lead the charge for housing followed by move-up buyers taking advantage of favourable market conditions," said the report. "It`s anticipated that 2010 will be a year to re-establish economic traction with both Calgary and the province better positioned for stronger growth in 2011."

Re/Max is forecasting the average MLS residential sale price of an existing Calgary home to rise by five per cent next year to $403,000 after falling by an estimated five per cent in 2009 to $385,000 from the previous year.

Although the price is expected to increase in 2010, it will still be below 2007 and 2008 levels.

The average price is for all residential properties including single-family homes and condominiums.

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Lumber exports touted as `Oil of the next decade`

Shares of several of Canada`s largest lumber exporters have skyrocketed in the past two months as new building codes in China allowing wood in construction have cracked open a previously inaccessible market for Canada`s long-suffering forestry industry.

Since Oct. 1, shares in International Forest Products Ltd. have soared 58.3 per cent, while Canfor Corp. and West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. shares jumped 31.4 and 28.4 per cent, respectively.

The advances come in the wake of quiet implementation of new wood-frame construction codes in Shanghai in September.

Lisa Raitt, federal minister of natural resources, later attended an official launch in the city in early November.

"We are confident that the Shanghai local code provides a framework that will be easily adaptable to other cities and provinces across China," Raitt said in a release at the time.

David Watt, a currency strategist with RBC Capital Markets, sees this development as a breakthrough for both the lumber industry and the Canadian dollar.

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Grande Cache Coal approved for expansion

Grande Cache Coal Corp. has received approval for a $180-million expansion that includes a new surface mine.

Work will begin immediately on the new mine, and production will increase at the existing sites to take it from the current 1.7 million tonnes a year to three million tonnes in three years, CEO Bob Stan said Wednesday.

The first metallurgical coal is expected to come out of the new mine as early as April.

Equipment, manpower and contractors have been mobilized over the past few months in anticipation of the new mine approval, Stan said.

He called it "an important milestone in the ongoing development of our company."

"It will provide us with over 10 years of good quality surface mining resources and long-term certainty for our employees, customers and the town of Grande Cache."

The government approval is the result of exhaustive technical and environmental design, local consultation, and regulatory review, Stan said.

The company already has a significant portion of the plant and equipment needed to increase production, Stan said.

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Natural Gas surges to 11-month high

Natural gas prices hit 11-month highs Thursday after cold weather drew down bloated natural gas inventories in the United States, handing producers some short-term respite from cratered values, observers said.

Arctic air blanketing much of Western Canada, the U.S. Midwest and into Texas prompted increased demand for natural gas as industry and residential heating loads soared by 23 per cent.

Storage levels south of the border fell 207 billion cubic feet last week to 3.566 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Department on Thursday, lower than an expected withdrawal of 178 billion. The pull was far higher than the five-year average draw of 127 bcf.

Natural gas prices gained six per cent on the news, up 30.6 cents to settle at $5.768 US per million British thermal units in New York on Thursday. The settlement price was the highest since Jan. 7.

"We`re getting a bit better demand and maybe supply just isn`t as gangbusters as some people are thinking," said Martin King, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary, who predicted a decline of 200 billion cubic feet.

A recovery in the U.S. economy is also helping to spur demand for gas, said King.

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Oil has its Cinderella year

In many ways, oil prices in 2009 were a mirror image of the previous decade rolled into 12 months.

In December 1999, oil prices slid toward the then-unthinkable barrier of $10 US a barrel. With respected publications like the Economist infamously predicting that crude would sink below $5 and stay there, nervous oilsands developers wondered whether their prized shovels and trucks would become obsolete in the 21st century, relics in a new industrial age.

Fast forward to the opening days of 2009. After hitting an all-time high of $147 the previous summer, oil prices were once again teetering on the edge of the abyss at $40, the first time prices had fallen below $50 since 2005. Nervous oilsands developers were once again left to wonder if their prized projects were about to be sucked into a massive black hole.

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," Walter Zimmermann Jr., chief technical analyst with New Jersey-based energy brokers United Icap, which clears NYMEX futures contracts, says jokingly.

The gloom was all-pervasive, with forecasters seeing prospects for only limited recovery. In short, the global oil industry was in a funk.

The World Bank in its 2009 economic outlook predicted oil would average $42.90 this year, climbing to $48.20 in 2010 and $50.40 in 2011 -- well below levels considered to be economic for oilsands development in Alberta.

"The price forecast is based on high-cost oilsands development in Canada, and assumes continued production restraint by major oil producers," the bank predicted.

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Alberta poised to lead in growth

Following a sharp economic contraction this year, Alberta`s economy is forecast to be one of Canada`s fastest growing provinces in 2010.

Scotiabank economist Alex Koustas predicts that in 2010, the energy province`s GDP will grow by 2.9% after shrinking 2.6% this year.

Only B.C., at 3%, is forecast to grow at a faster rate.

Come 2011, Alberta will be firmly planted ahead of other provinces, thanks to a growth rate of 3.5%, Koustas said.

Much of the growth will be fuelled by a revival of the oilsands. Benchmark oil prices have been trading near $75 a barrel for several weeks now, and Koustas said the commodity will stage "quite a comeback" next year.

That`ll benefit what economists call fixed capital investments, which can be any construction project from a bitumen upgrader to a factory hall.

"Though planned capital project expenditures have eroded considerably over the past year," Koustas said, "activity is expected to pick up in the next two years

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U.S. firms eye Oilsands for new projects

Leading U.S. engineering companies do not expect much federal stimulus money to flow in their line of sight any time soon, but believe opportunities in Canada`s oilsands are ripe with the recovery in crude prices.

Executives said Wednesday the local and shovel-ready nature of many stimulus-funded projects meant their companies

might not see much of the money, and anyway the U.S. government expects only a fraction more of it to start moving next year.

"So we`re not really counting on too much," URS Corp. chief executive Martin Koffel said at a conference. "Having said that, we think there will be some design-build projects next year to which we would be attracted."

John Prosser, chief financial officer at Jacobs Engineering Group Inc., later told the same Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2009 Global Industrial Conference that any positive effect from U.S. federal stimulus had been more than off set by weakness in state and city finances around the country.

Nonetheless, Koff el pointed to approvals of an $11-billion California high-speed rail bond and of sales-tax funding for road improvements in Los Angeles as signs that local money could always be spent on politically desirable projects.

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Calgary aread to add 1.6 million by 2076: Report

Southern Alberta`s population will increase by about two million people over the next 66 years, with most of that growth centred around Calgary, says a new provincial planning document.

Even before the population swells to that level, the Alberta government says it wants to improve water conservation, efficiency and productivity by 30 per cent in the next six years.

The detailed strategies for meeting these and other targets will be addressed in public meetings regarding the South Saskatchewan Regional Plan. The meetings begin today.

The purpose of the meetings is to discuss regional plans that attempt to balance population and economic growth with land conservation and the protection of water sources.

A government report setting out the terms of reference for the regional plan states that "significant growth is anticipated in the Calgary Metropolitan Region over the next 60 to 70 years. It is expected to add 1.6 million residents by 2076."

In the rest of the region--which extends from Calgary to the Rockies, and south and east to Alberta`s boundaries, taking in both Lethbridge and Medicine Hat--the population is forecast to increase by 400,000 people by 2076.

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Bank caution may be overstated

The Bank of Canada threw a caution flag over Canadian housing markets Thursday, warning of increased risks from rising household debt as record low interest rates have drawn many thousands of new buyers into homeownership.

The Bank`s concern is buyers may be lulled into thinking the rates will last longer than they actually will.

"When borrowing funds, especially in the form of mortgages, households need to assess their ability to service these debt obligations over their entire maturity, taking into account likely changes in both income and interest rates and the risks surrounding this outlook," it said.

Gary Seigle, Calgary region manager for mortgage brokerage firm Invis, says it is standard practice in Canada to over qualify mortgage applicants.

"The rate we usually use is the three-year rate for qualifying, so basically people are qualified at a higher rate than what they will pay," he says.

The Bank earlier this week confirmed it will hold its overnight rate at 0.25% until at least the middle of next year, which should influence mortgage rates to stay low (on the announcement, major banks in the country lowered some of their rates) but at some point, rates will rise.

Opinions vary as to when and by how much rates will rise, but there is agreement the rate of recovery from the recession and the threat of inflation will be the deciding factors.

Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, says because markets are still fragile, a significant change to the bank`s interest rate policy is premature, but if the economy continues to build momentum by next summer, the bank will likely increase the rate by one percentage point.

An improving economy changes the playing field, says Seigle.

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Alberta exports rebound on rising Oil prices

CALGARY - Alberta`s exports, bolstered by rising oil prices, are rebounding and are now on pace for a strong year.

While levels are well below last year`s record highs, exports for the first 10 months of 2009 are still in line with recent highs.

Alberta`s exports so far this year have tallied $57.2 billion, about 40 per cent below 2008 levels. But that`s similar to levels seen between 2005 and 2007, said one analyst.

Rising oil prices, and some gains on natural gas prices helped boost the province`s exports by about four per cent in October to $5.9 billion, Statistics Canada reported Thursday.

Rising demand from a recovering U.S. economy will also help boost exports, said Dan Sumner, economist with ATB Financial.

"Given that the U.S. is slowly starting to get back on its feet, it probably does bode well for the volume of exports," he said.

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Oil to top gas for 2010 drilling

CALGARY - It`s taken four decades, but oil will be king of the Canadian energy exploration sector again in 2010, according to a forecast by the Petroleum Services Association of Canada.

The association predicts that 4,100 oil wells will be drilled next year, compared with 3,200 gas wells, the first time in 39 years that gas drilling hasn`t trumped oil.

In 1970, as the Beatles registered their last No. 1 single with The Long and Winding Road and U.S. President Richard Nixon formally authorized American troops to expand the Vietnam War into Cambodia, 1,054 oil wells and 794 natural gas wells were completed in Canada.

At the time, oil was on its way down from more typical numbers between 1,500 and 2,000 wells per year, said association president Roger Soucy, while gas exploration was just starting its rise to the top. Oil in Western Canada sold for an average of $2.47 per barrel and gas was 15 cents per thousand cubic feet.

On Thursday, benchmark New York crude oil fell 17 cents to $70.50 US per barrel (averaging $61.35 on the year) while NYMEX natural gas rose 39 cents to $5.28 per million British thermal units (a year-to-date average of $4.07).

Soucy said the drilling statistic anomaly is all about hard times for conventional natural gas, which is barely economic to recover with prices in the $4 to $5 range.

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Toyota adds 800 jobs at Woodstock

Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada Inc. announced Thursday it will add a second shift at its Woodstock, Ont., facility to build its popular RAV4, which will create an additional 800 jobs at the site.

The new shift, which will be implemented in March 2010, will be to increase production of the Japanese automaker`s compact crossover SUV vehicle to 150,000 units.

It also lends credence to the claim that the auto sector is turning around as the economy improves, after suffering through one of the worst years on record.

"Thanks to the high demand for this popular vehicle, we are able to increase production in Woodstock," said Ray Tanguay, president of TMMC, in statement. "We are very pleased to be able to continue our growth and provide jobs in the local community."

The news follows a similar announcement by GM Canada that it would be adding a third shift at its CAMI Automotive Inc. plant in Ingersoll, Ont., where it builds its Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain. Sales for those vehicles improved 17% in November alone, the Detroit automaker said announcing the increase in production.

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Pent-Up demand rejeuvenating homebuilders

Paul Dietrich would have paid a chunk of your down payment if you bought one of his newly built houses earlier this year.

That offer is off the table.

Now, the Peterborough, Ont.-based builder is trying to work out how much he should be increasing prices for the spring, when home buyers are expected to come out in force to take advantage of low interest rates and easy mortgage terms.

He`s not the only one making plans. The value of building permits for single-family dwellings increased 10.1 per cent to $2.4-billion in October, the eighth consecutive month of gains and the clearest sign yet that Canada`s housing market is emerging from a short slump.

Every province except Nova Scotia and PEI posted increases, although the value of building permits for multifamily dwellings fell 8.2 per cent to $1-billion, after a 34.3-per-cent jump in September.

New housing starts are important to the economy because they create construction jobs and spark a flurry of related spending as new homeowners make improvements and buy furnishings. The Real Estate Council of Ontario estimates that every newly built $300,000 house generates up to another $160,000 in consumer spending.

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