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July 2010 Alberta Economic Fundamentals

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Single-family, condo sales take June nosedive

CALGARY- MLS sales plunged in June in Calgary in both the single-family home market and condomiminums.

Statistics released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board showed sales in the single-family home category of 1,061 for the month plummeted by 42.24 per cent while condominium transactions of 445 declined by 39.70 per cent compared with year ago levels.

While the market continued to add new listings, average sale prices inched upwards - by 7.79 per cent for single-family homes to $481,964 and by 2.33 per cent for condos to $292,238.

"We are seeing continued moderation in Calgary`s home sales in the face of higher mortgage rates, increased inventory levels and a decreasing number of first-time homebuyers entering the market," said Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board. "Our sales trends in June reflect much of what we saw in May.

"Changes to mortgage rules meant a good portion of homebuyers wanted to get in before the new regulations took effect in April. This, along with rising interest rates on the horizon, pulled forward sales we might have expected in May and June."

She said the one market that seems to be bucking this moderating trend is the luxury or higher-end market. For example, in the first six months of this year, 187 single-family homes in the city sold for $1 million or more, compared with 132 in 2009.

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Survey finds Albertans feeling good about economy

Fewer people worried about jobs: survey


Job anxiety has eased in Alberta, according to a new poll by RBC.

Its June Canadian Consumer Outlook, to be released today, says the majority of Albertans (71 per cent) say the national economy is good, up eight per cent from March and compared with 67 per cent nationally.

Job anxiety dropped seven points to 19 per cent from 26 per cent in March.

"Overall, Albertans remain fairly optimistic about the economy," said Bob Mulligan, regional vice-president of RBC, who is based in Edmonton. "There continues to be a lot of optimism -- in fact it continues to grow, particularly in Alberta -- about the economy. We`re pretty optimistic about the outlook of the economy and that`s a positive driver of consumer confidence."

Thirty-three per cent of Alberta residents believe their local economy will improve over the next three months, the highest in the country but down eight per cent since March.

The survey also said 62 per cent of Alberta residents believe the Canadian economy will improve over the next year, the highest level in the country -- down two per cent since March and compared with 55 per cent nationally.

"In Alberta we`ve heard of several big projects going ahead in northern Alberta. There have been a fair number of announcements in the first half of the year," said Mulligan. "That adds to the optimism that the economy is starting to move in the right direction.

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House prices likely to rise 5%-7% in Calgary: Conference Board

The short-term year-over-year price growth expectation for Calgary`s resale housing market is in the range of five to seven per cent, says the Conference Board of Canada.

In its latest Metro Resale Index released today, the board placed Calgary in the second highest level of price growth expectation which includes Victoria, Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Regina, Halifax and Newfoundland.

The board surveyed 28 Canadian markets.

Leading the country in short-term year-over-year price growth expectation of seven per cent or more was Edmonton, Saskatoon, Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivieres and Saguenay.

The index classified Calgary as being in a buyer`s market.

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Money flows to housing construction in Alberta

CALGARY - New investment in Alberta housing construction ballooned in April compared with a year ago.

According to Statistics Canada data, investment totalled $698.9 million in the province during that month, up significantly from $431.8 million in April 2009.

In the single home sector, investment jumped from $304.7 million a year ago to $588.8 million this year.

According to Statistics Canada, total investment in housing construction across the country was almost $3.3 billion in April which was up from $2.7 billion a year ago.

In the single home category, total investment on a year-over-year basis increased from $1.4 billion to $2.2 billion in April.

Recently, housing experts said the pace of residential construction in the Calgary region would start to slow down in the second half of this year with higher mortgage rates, tighter lending rules and more resale homes on the market putting a damper on housing starts.

That trend was evident in May as housing starts dropped from April but were still up from year-ago levels.

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Alberta pays to deliver oilsands message

Province buys half-page ad after premier`s letter rejected


EDMONTON — Alberta`s premier delivered his pro-oilsands message to a Washington Post audience Friday morning through a $55,800 Cdn half-page ad in the paper, instead of an opinion piece as originally intended.

Premier Ed Stelmach`s office learned Thursday afternoon that the U.S. newspaper rejected the letter for its opinion pages, said his spokesman, Jerry Bellikka.

"We decided this is a message we needed to get out anyway, so we booked an ad."

The defence of the oilsands industry, which appeared Friday on the fourth page of the Post`s front section, comes after 50 U.S. congressmen made a case to the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the $12-billion Keystone XL pipeline expansions should be put on hold. The project, proposed by Calgary-based TransCanada, would see a pipeline run from Hardisty, Alta., through Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska, and connect to a hub in Cushing, Okla. From there, the line would branch to Houston and Port Ar thur, Texas.

The project requires a presidential permit issued by the U.S. State Department because the pipeline starts in Canada. Friday marked the final day for public comment.

The Post`s assistant editorial page editor Autumn Brewington said the paper receives 60 to 100 unsolicited opinion pieces a day, in addition to its 17 regular columnists.

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Business park that silenced skeptics set to grow

Sherwood Park project adding 280,000 sq. ft.


SHERWOOD PARK — Trans America Group president Eli Adler watched a backhoe ceremoniously break ground Wednesday on the developer`s latest project in its Sherwood Business Park.

He spoke about the past, when the growing 450-acre park in Strathcona County was an empty field at the time he bought the land on the northern outskirts of Sherwood Park 11 years ago.

Then he talked about the future and his company`s plans to develop a nearby outlet mall similar in scale and concept to the Calgary area`s Cross Iron Mills.

But for now Adler is pleased construction is beginning on the first phase of Millennium Ridge, a planned 280,000-square-foot, $14-million commercial development bordered by Broadmoor Boulevard and Lakeland Drive and backing onto the Millennium Place recreation complex in Sherwood Park.

A parcel of land has also been sold to a hotel developer and another parcel is for sale.

The 300 acres already developed in Sherwood Business Park are home to tenants such as Flying J truck stop, Flint Energy, Epcor, Stewart Weir, Genivar, Coast and Holiday Inn Express hotels and Sherwood Dodge.

"This will be the icing on the cake of this project," Adler said of Millennium Ridge and the business park.

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China to spend big in Canada: CNOOC

Chinese companies are set to spend billions more on Canadian oil and gas properties in coming years, as the resource-hungry nation scours the world for energy, the executive in charge of Canadian operations for one of China`s major state-owned oil firms says.

Spurred by new mandates to invest overseas, and an easing in travel restrictions to Canada, in the next five years, "a lot of companies will come here to look for resources and to make an investment," said Zheng Li, president of CNOOC Canada Ltd., which was among the first Chinese companies to invest heavily in Canada`s oil patch, paying $150-million for a 16.69-per-cent stake in MEG Energy Corp. in 2005.

Mr. Li`s own mandate in Canada, he said, is to look at investment opportunities here, evaluate which are worthwhile and report back to decision-makers in China. His interest is shale gas and oil – and especially the oil sands – and his ambition is to connect Chinese capital with Canadian opportunity.

"There will be more" billion-dollar deals between Chinese and Canadian companies, Mr. Li said in an interview.

CNOOC is one of several Chinese firms with a presence in Canada, although Mr. Li said major investments are conducted in China, and investment bankers say when they are working on a deal, they fly to Beijing, rather than Calgary.

Still, Mr. Li`s presence here gives him access to the gamut of opportunities in the Canadian oil patch.


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Alberta to capture advantage

Province taking global lead on CCS technology


A lberta stands to reap the benefits of being a leader in carbon capture and storage technologies, which a renowned energy adviser group pegs as second only to energy efficiencies in reducing climate change.

Rising demand for electricity in developing nations is contributing to a steep increase in carbon emissions, a rise that could be addressed through low-carbon fuels combined with carbon capture and storage technologies, the International Energy Agency said in a report.

The Paris-based agency, adviser to 24 member nations, noted the technology, combined with alternative fuels and generation, could slice the intensity of carbon emissions from electricity production by almost 90 per cent.

"Decarbonizing the electricity sector, the second-largest source of emissions reductions, must involve dramatically increasing the shares of renewables and nuclear power, and adding carbon capture and storage to plants that consume fossil fuels," the report said.

For Eric Beynon, director of the Integrated CO2 Network, the report solidified Alberta and Canada`s position as leaders in CCS.

"The whole world is identifying the need for the technology, and Alberta is a global leader," Beynon said Friday. "We`ve always been careful of saying that CCS is not the only answer to climate change, and we need all the various options, including energy efficiencies and renewables, but especially in the near term, CCS is incredibly important for Canada and Alberta and this is showing it`s important for the world."

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Storm clouds roll in again over U.S.

EDMONTON - Since I don`t have Yogi`s delightful gift for malapropisms, I`ll just give it to you straight:

I`m getting the same sick feeling I had in early 2008, when the U.S. tumbled into its deepest recession in 70 years.

Just as Alberta`s economy is rebounding, with jobless rates down, the provincial budget deficit shrinking and drilling activity up, storm clouds are again forming south of the border.

This is a lousy way to start the month of July, I realize, but there`s no point in fudging it. The U.S. economy is in deep doo doo, even if most economists predict continued growth -- just as they did, almost without exception, when the last downturn hit.

Forget what the White House spinmeisters and Wall Street fantasists are saying. The possibility of a double-dip recession looms larger with each passing week.

Many of the same factors that presaged the 2008 slump are back. Stock markets are plunging, net wealth is shrinking, credit is tightening, job growth has stalled, wages are flat, the housing market has tanked and factory orders are slowing.

In May, U.S. retail sales dropped the most in eight months. Since consumers account for roughly 70 per cent of the American economy, that`s a very troubling sign.

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`Crummy` June sees home sales slide

Luxury market boosts average price


The downturn in Calgary`s residential real estate market was dramatically evident in June as MLS sales plunged from year-ago levels.

Sales in the single-family home category of 1,061 for the month plummeted by 42.24 per cent while condominium transactions of 445 took a nosedive of 39.7 per cent.

Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, called the June numbers "crummy."

"It`s a buyer`s market. We have evolved into a buyer`s market, but the buyers aren`t buying," said Scott.

"It makes for a quiet market."

While the number of properties for sale continued to rise, average sale prices moved upwards as well -- by 7.79 per cent for singlefamily homes to $481,964 and by 2.33 per cent for condos to $292,238. The average prices were buoyed by an increase in sales in the luxury home market, particularly for singlefamily homes.

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QUOTE (Amber @ Jul 7 2010, 01:05 PM) `Crummy` June sees Calgary home sales slide

Luxury market boosts average price


The downturn in Calgary`s residential real estate market was dramatically evident in June as MLS sales plunged from year-ago levels.

Sales in the single-family home category of 1,061 for the month plummeted by 42.24 per cent while condominium transactions of 445 took a nosedive of 39.7 per cent.

Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, called the June numbers "crummy."

"It`s a buyer`s market. We have evolved into a buyer`s market, but the buyers aren`t buying," said Scott.

"It makes for a quiet market."

While the number of properties for sale continued to rise, average sale prices moved upwards as well -- by 7.79 per cent for singlefamily homes to $481,964 and by 2.33 per cent for condos to $292,238. The average prices were buoyed by an increase in sales in the luxury home market, particularly for singlefamily homes.

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UTS chief seen as hero of Total deal

CALGARY -- Total SA`s hunt for a stake in the undeveloped Fort Hills oil sands mine has been an exercise in patience.

The French giant waited more than a year after its hostile bid for UTS Energy Corp. failed before striking a friendly deal to the Canadian company`s slice of Fort Hills Wednesday. However, even though the battle eventually turned amicable, UTS is being crowned the victor.

The French energy giant has agreed to pay UTS investors $3.08 per share for that company`s 20% stake in Fort Hills. The deal adds up to $1.5-billion, but will only cost Total $1.15-billion since it will acquire UTS`s $355-million in cash.

The rest of UTS` assets — with two projects holding about 891 million barrels of contingent resources — will be put in a new company called SilverBirch Energy Corp. Further, about $50-million in working capital has been earmarked for SilverBirch, which will be lead by Will Roach, UTS` chief executive. Current UTS shareholders will get ownership of the new company.

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Smell sickens Peace River area residents

Chemicals 40 times higher than normal inside homes, study says


ST. ISIDORE — Tests show that chemicals causing odour problems in an area east of Peace River were up to 40 times higher than normal background levels, Alberta government officials told area residents Tuesday.

The Alberta government sent about 15 representatives to a small community hall near Peace River Tuesday to talk about the smells that some residents complain have become unbearable.

About 60 people listened to a summary of the test results and what`s been done about odours so nauseating they`ve jolted people awake in the middle of the night and made them sick.

Many of the residents pressed the government to legitimize their health concerns, while others expressed frustration that no solutions had been found.

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City of Edmonton begins rebate program for washing machines

$75 rebates offered on Energy Star-rated appliances


EDMONTON — The city is helping to clean up the environment with a new $75 rebate for people who buy energy-efficient washing machines.

The $115,000 scheme will provide money to the first 1,500 applicants who purchase Energy Star-rated machines for Edmonton homes between July 1 and the end of the year, Coun. Don Iveson told a news conference Tuesday.

On average, such washers use up to half the water and energy of older models, saving the typical household $150 annually and cutting their carbon dioxide emissions by up to one tonne, he said.

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Alberta builders take a hammering

Decline in May building permits the biggest in Canada


EDMONTON — Alberta posted the biggest yearly decline among provinces in the value of building permits for May, according to Statistics Canada.

The province`s two biggest cities also had among the biggest declines among municipalities in permit values from the previous month.

Permit values provide an early indicator of construction plans, so it`s bad news for Alberta`s builders, who are enduring a lull in activity.

"It`s as bad as we`ve seen it since 2002 or 2001," said Roger Dootson, chairman of the Alberta Construction Association and vice-president of PCL Construction Management Inc.

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CPP board buys into oilsands

$250M investment in Laricina recognizes `economic value`: CEO


EDMONTON - In a major show of confidence in Alberta`s oilsands, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board paid $250 million Tuesday for a 17.1-percent interest in Laricina Energy Ltd., a private Calgary-based firm with huge holdings and a reputation for innovative in situ development.

"We are pleased with the endorsement and look forward to the partnership. This will fully fund our next project, the 5,000-barrel-per-day Germain demonstration project," said Laricina chief executive Glen Schmidt.

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Edmonton house prices up despite market glut

Single-family homes gain average 5.7 per cent in a year as listings approach record high


EDMONTON — The number of homes listed for sale in the Edmonton area is nearing record levels, while June residential sales fell 37 per cent from last year.

At the same time, the average price of a single-family home rose nearly six per cent and the average price of all residences was up two per cent year-over-year, according to MLS figures released Monday by the Realtors Association of Edmonton.

What gives?

Association president Larry Westergard acknowledged the market was not yet responding to normal supply-and-demand pressures. But prices will begin dropping in the next few months, he said

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Attack on pipeline spurs call for new oilsands markets

Renewed opposition to Alberta`s oilsands operations has put pressure on the province to find new markets, as momentum grows in the United States to bar Canadian bitumen.

Industry, analysts and politicians responded Tuesday to the entry of U.S. political heavyweight Henry Waxman into the oilsands debate after the congressman added his voice against TransCanada Corp.` s oil pipeline expansion to the Gulf Coast.

In a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Waxman called the Keystone XL line a "step in the wrong direction" that increases that country`s reliance on "the dirtiest source of transportation fuel currently available."

The concerted lobbying efforts are a wake-up call for Alberta and Canada to stop relying on the U.S. as the primary market for our energy, analyst Vince Lauerman said.

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MEG Energy plans $1 billion IPO in bid to expand oilsands project

TORONTO - Oil sands producer MEG Energy Corp aims to raise about $1 billion in an initial public offering late this month, selling about 23 million common shares as it raises cash for a big expansion of its northern Alberta operations.

Priced between $42 and $48 per share, it would be one of Canada`s largest IPOs in a decade and would represent a brave new thrust in a market that has stumbled in recent months.

According to a source with access to the terms of the IPO, MEG Energy plans to price the deal on July 28 and close on Aug. 6. The IPO will have an over-allotment option of 15 percent.

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