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June 2010

Ally

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News articles for June 2010.
 

Ally

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Crude price, new royalties restore hope in oilfields

EDMONTON - Alberta`s drillers and oilfield services firms know all about roller-coasters.

When prices for crude oil and natural gas soar -- as they did in mid-2008, when oil touched $147 US a barrel and gas topped $13 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) -- oilfield services firms run flat out, scrambling to find enough workers and equipment to meet demand.

And when energy prices crater -- as they did in early 2009 -- activity levels crash, equipment is liquidated and thousands of workers are laid off. In a province where boom-and-bust cycles are the norm, no industry feels the swings more acutely than the services sector.

So now that energy prices are (touch wood) slowly on the mend, and Alberta land sales -- a key indicator of future drilling plans -- are rebounding, what`s the outlook for this volatile sector?

In a nutshell, it`s far better than it was a year ago. But no one expects the boom times to return any time soon.

Although industry sentiment has improved a lot over the last 12 months, and stock prices are up sharply from the bottom, there are still plenty of risks.

Read the full article here.
 

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As prices rise, Calgary home sales in May slow down

CALGARY - Calgary MLS sales in May plunged compared with a year ago, according to data released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board.

The board said single-family home and condo sales were down just over 20 per cent from the level registered in May 2009.

At the same time new listings for the month rose by nearly 33 per cent in the single-family home market and by just over 22 per cent in the condo market.

Average prices, however, rose by nearly 11 per cent for both single-family homes and condos.

"We believe there are a number of factors contributing to this marked slowdown including a declining number of first-time homebuyers in the market, a rise in monthly carrying costs as mortgage rates rise and to some extent market jitters in the wake of Greece`s financial crisis," said Diane Scott, CREB president.

In May, there were 1,262 single-family MLS sales for an average price of $483,240 and a median price of $420,000. A year ago, the single-family market had 1,584 sales for an average of $436,427 and a median of $390,000. In April of this year, there were 1,352 sales for an average price of $460,378 and a median price of $417,000.

Read the full article here.
 

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Calgary on world`s `Radar`

Calgary and Edmonton are the places to invest, says a leading real estate expert.

Despite the strong real estate markets in Toronto and Vancouver, those cities can`t beat the hot spots in Alberta, says author Don Campbell.

He recently released his latest book, 81 Financial and Tax Tips for the Canadian Real Estate Investor.

"There are not the same fundamentals in downtown Vancouver and Toronto as there are in Edmonton and Calgary," says Campbell. "If you take the emotion out of it and stick to the bare bones facts of what is driving the market, Calgary and Edmonton over the next five years have one of the strongest economies -- in-migration and job creation -- in North America."

In-migration refers to the movement of people to a given place from elsewhere.

While the market cooled fairly dramatically here last year, it is understandable why, says Campbell.

"Alberta had a bigger boom by 20 to 25 per cent and the pendulum was so strong on the seller side that people over-reacted," he says.

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Alberta MLS sales forecast marked down for 2010

CALGARY - A changing market has forced the Canadian Real Estate Association to dramatically revise its forecast for MLS sales this year.

In releasing its updated forecast Wednesday, the association said MLS sales in Alberta will drop 2.9 per cent this year to 55,900 units and fall another 0.9 per cent in 2011 to 55,400 units.

In its forecast of early February, the national association of realtors had predicted sales in the province this year to increase by 9.1 per cent to 63,050 and gain another 1.5 per cent in 2011 to 64,000.

"Sales activity in the first quarter of 2010 came in weaker than anticipated," said Gregory Klump, the association`s chief economist. "Other developments that followed the release of CREA`s forecast earlier this year, including the Bank of Canada`s having dropped its conditional commitment to keep interest rates on hold until the second half of this year and changes to mortgage regulations, contributed to the downward revision."

The forecast for the average MLS sale price in the province has also been lowered for this year. CREA now says it will increase by 2.1 per cent to $348,400, down from the previous forecast of an increase of 4.7 per cent to $357,300. However, its revised forecast calls for a 0.7 per cent jump in 2011 to $350,800. Its previous forecast was for a 1.2 per cent increase to $361,700 next year.

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Home sales repeat `strong` month

EDMONTON — Home sales in April -- first month in what is traditionally the busiest quarter in the resale housing market -- fell 5.9 per cent from the same month last year.

But then again, in April 2009 mortgage rates were falling, federal renovation incentives beckoned and prices had dropped from boom levels.

Fast-forward a year and last month saw three mortgage-rate hikes and the start of stricter lending rules.

There were 1,740 residential sales reported for April, up from 1,571 in March, according to Edmontonregion Multiple Listing Service figures released Tuesday by the Realtors Association of Edmonton (RAE).

That`s down from 1,849 a year earlier.

"The same things that buoyed Alberta housing markets in 2009 are now weighing on demand a bit," ATB Financial economist Dan Sumner said.

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West LRT rezoning to face council vote

CALGARY - A warehouse owned by Calgary`s mayor is among the more than 100 properties that council will be asked to rezone today to create a pedestrian-friendly, high-density district around the future West LRT Sunalta station.

Dave Bronconnier has championed the C-Train`s westward expansion, but because of real estate he`s owned along the line since his days as alderman, he has abstained from any decisions on the route alignment and the transit-oriented development plan.

Governance laws require him to again declare a conflict of interest and briefly leave the chamber when council considers the rezoning, which would allow taller, denser buildings on his 10th Avenue S.W. property and others in the blocks within walking distance of the 16th Street station now under construction.

That will likely deliver a bump in real-estate value to those station-area lands, on top of the average 12 to 15 per cent boost that typically comes from merely being close to a train stop, said Don Campbell, president of the Real Estate Investment Network.

"If you`re able to create more income from that property -- selling more units or renting more units out -- the underlying land will go up (in value)," said the Vancouver-based researcher.

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Alberta`s jobless rate nation`s third-lowest

EDMONTON — Almost 15,000 jobs were created in Alberta in May as the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped again.

The 6.6-per-cent rate, down from 7.4 per cent in April, was the third-lowest in the country behind Saskatchewan`s five per cent and Manitoba at 5.7 per cent, and well below the 8.1-per-cent national average, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

Edmonton`s unemployment rate dropped 0.2 per cent to 7.4 per cent, but was still above the 6.0 per cent of May 2009.

Calgary`s rate remained at 7.6 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent in May last year.

Year-over-year, Alberta`s unemployment rate was down 0.1 per cent, while 6,100 more people found jobs.

Employment in the goods-producing sector increased by 12,800, led by agriculture at 7,700, construction with 5,500 and manufacturing at 3,000.

The unexpected addition of 24,700 jobs nationally prompted optimism from analysts.

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Alberta sitting on nearly 1.5 trillion barrels, says ERCB

CALGARY - A re-evaluation of emerging oilsands areas and advances in production technology have pushed Alberta`s bitumen resources toward 1.5 trillion barrels in 2009, according to a report by the Energy Resources Conservation Board.

According to the ERCB`s annual reserve report, which will be officially released today, the increase was driven by a re-evaluation of the largely untapped Grosmont deposit, which is now said to contain 406 billion barrels in the ground waiting for the right technology to extract it.

In situ oilsands production grew 14 per cent last year, along with a 14 per cent increase in mining output due in large part to the startup of Canadian Natural Resources` Horizon mine, the report notes. But in situ is expected to be the strongest driver of future activity, said Carol Crowfoot, the board`s chief economist and report co-author.

"Particularly on the in situ side, we`re forecasting quite a growth rate for the next 10 years, due to the SAGD (steam assisted gravity drainage)," she said.

In situ oilsands production now accounts for about half of the 1.49 million barrels of bitumen produced per day, a figure that is expected to double to 3.2 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, the report said.

The Grosmont is a lesser-known fourth oilsands area — after Athabasca, Peace River and Cold Lake — that is unique because the bitumen is contained in limestone instead of sand. Producers have known about the Grosmont carbonates for decades, but lacked practical ways of getting it out of the ground.

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Gulf spill a chilling ad for natural gas

EDMONTON - If the worst oil spill in U.S. history isn`t enough to make natural gas America`s new fuel of choice, I suspect nothing will.

For years, Texas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens, among others, has argued that natural gas offers the best solution -- economically and environmentally -- for meeting America`s energy needs.

It`s cheap, it`s cleaner burning than coal or oil, and with the recent development of massive new U.S. shale gas reserves, America is literally drowning in the stuff.

Now, with gooey oil slicks and tar balls threatening to devastate beaches, fisheries and marshlands from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, BP has just given the natural gas industry the kind of big-time promo money can`t buy.

Even before the Deepwater Horizon rig blew up and sank on April 20, killing 11 crew members and leaving inky crude gushing from the floor of the Gulf of Mexico, the case for greater use of natural gas was a no-brainer.

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Calgary is Canada`s best real estate market, report says

CALGARY — Calgary is the best place in Canada to invest in the residential real estate market, according to a report released Friday.

The Real Estate Investment Network`s report said Calgary experienced one of its best economic and real estate periods in Canadian history a couple of years ago but then entered a strong, and needed correction.

"During the economic downturn, Calgary`s market is making a predictable correction resulting in slightly more affordable housing compared to recent years passed," said the report. "It was economically impossible for the market to continue at the pace at which it was heading and now finds itself adjusting to market realities.

"This adjustment period, as the market searches for its new foundation from which to build, should continue in 2010 as the provincial economy is poised for another growth spurt."

The report said migration to the city continuing to lead the country combined with the "renewed affordability" will help propel the local market over the coming years.

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Calgary vacancy rates lower than recently feared

Calgary may avoid a real estate disaster, as strong crude prices and surging interest in the oil sands drive more interest in commercial space than brokers expected only months ago.

The city`s vacancy rate has fallen through the first half of this year, and several city brokerage firms now believe that even with two massive new buildings nearing completion, vacancy rates will not touch the 20 per cent feared as recently as this spring.

"I wouldn`t paint a picture that it`s booming, but it`s nowhere near as negative as it was," said Todd Throndson, managing director of the Calgary office for Avison Young Commercial Real Estate. "We`re thinking today that vacancy might get to around 15 per cent – but it`s not going to be the death knell that everybody thought it was going to be."

After hitting 14.5 per cent late last year, vacancy rates dropped to 13.5 per cent in the first quarter and fell to 12.4 per cent at the end of May, according to numbers compiled by Barclay Street Real Estate. Part of the dip has come from energy companies like Statoil ASA and engineering firms like Amec PLC, who are taking on more space as oil sands expansion resumes.

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Shale reserves called overhyped

"The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs," British economist John Maynard Keynes once famously said. "In the long run we`re all dead."

Unfortunately, most market observers agree natural gas prices will only improve markedly in the long run.

That list of analysts includes Bruce Edgelow, vice-president of Energy for ATB Corporate Financial Services.

"Long term, everyone is bullish on natural gas," Edgelow said Thursday at an investors conference for Canada`s junior oil and gas sector.

Mainstream opinion dictates storage levels of natural gas in the U.S. are simply too high to allow supply to decrease by enough push up benchmark gas prices.

NYMEX natural gas contracts are trading below $5 per 1,000 cubic feet, which Edgelow said will remain the approximate average price, at least for this year.

But there are prominent dissenters.

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April building permits point to cooling real estate market

Commercial projects cranked up the value of building permits sold in April by 5% as residential property building cooled off, government figures released Friday show.

The dollar figure associated with building permits hit $6.7 billion in the month, Statistics Canada said.

The non-residential sector saw permits rise for the third straight month and were up 32% to $2.8 billion. This includes buildings intended for commercial use as well as institutional use, such as schools and hospitals.

Gains in the commercial sector, with especially high retail and office space activity in Alberta and Ontario, more than offset the decline in the residential sector, which dropped 8% from March to $3.9 billion.

The decline was mostly due to slowdowns in single and multi-family dwelling permits in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, StatsCan said.

The fall in April residential building permits coincides with a recent report by the Canadian Real Estate Association that said the national property market peak has come and gone. CREA slashed its growth forecast for the market on Wednesday citing a cooling in the red-hot markets of B.C., Alberta and Ontario.

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Calgary construction pace gathers steam

OK, the snow of recent weeks aside, things are looking up in Alberta.

But there`s even a bright side to the snow thing -- Calgary didn`t get the 20 centimetres that forecasters were calling for.

You want more good news? Here it is:

-Reports from various think tanks are saying economic growth in the province will be stronger this year than first indicated -- possibly as high as 3.6 per cent.

-The oil royalties strategy introduced by premier Ed Stelmach and his crew has been rolled back -- I think for the seventh or eighth time -- and increased industry investment is expected as a result.

All this, and the snow has melted. It`s kind of mucky around home construction sites, but at least they`re getting built.

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Calgary`s sliding retail vacancy rate hits a renewed boom

Calgary has one of the lowest retail vacancy rates in North America, fuelled by high consumer spending, stable employment and high personal incomes.

Over the past year, the bleak economic picture had some industry experts predicting the retail vacancy rate in the city would be on an upward trend, but that hasn`t happened. Rather, the vacancy rate has fallen to under 1.5 per cent, according to a report by Colliers International, as the city prepares for another retail boom.

"It`s looking a lot better than a lot of people were predicting," said Krystyn Gatto, retail leasing associate with Colliers International in Calgary.

"Our spending is higher than the rest of the provinces, but coupled with that is the fact that we`re largely under-retailed in Calgary," Gatto said.

"When you compare the amount of retail space per capita in Calgary to, say, Vancouver or Toronto, our average is much lower."

Stable employment, strong commodity prices, improving retail sales and excellent long-term growth prospects have combined to create one of the lowest retail vacancy environments in North America, said Colliers` most recent retail report, obtained by the Herald.

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As prices rise, Calgary home sales in May slow down

CALGARY - Calgary MLS sales in May plunged compared with a year ago, according to data released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board.

The board said single-family home and condo sales were down just over 20 per cent from the level registered in May 2009.

At the same time new listings for the month rose by nearly 33 per cent in the single-family home market and by just over 22 per cent in the condo market.

Average prices, however, rose by nearly 11 per cent for both single-family homes and condos.

"We believe there are a number of factors contributing to this marked slowdown including a declining number of first-time homebuyers in the market, a rise in monthly carrying costs as mortgage rates rise and to some extent market jitters in the wake of Greece`s financial crisis," said Diane Scott, CREB president.

In May, there were 1,262 single-family MLS sales for an average price of $483,240 and a median price of $420,000. A year ago, the single-family market had 1,584 sales for an average of $436,427 and a median of $390,000. In April of this year, there were 1,352 sales for an average price of $460,378 and a median price of $417,000.

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Edmonton housing market `relaxed`

EDMONTON — Sales of Edmonton-area homes fell 26 per cent in May from the same time last year as rising mortgage rates, tighter lending rules and jittery financial markets kept buyers out of the resale market.

There were 3,670 residential listings in May with sales of 1,682 properties, according to figures released Wednesday by the Realtors Association of Edmonton.

That`s also down 3.3 per cent from 1,740 residential properties sold in April, the figures show.

"Financial incentives, changes to mortgage qualifying rules and the threat of increasing mortgage rates caused the local market to peak a little earlier this year," Westergard said.

"Many buyers exercised their options in April, leaving the customer base a little leaner in May."

Sales are down significantly from May 2009 because the economy was coming out of recession and consumer confidence was picking up in April and May, he said.

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Oil sands output to overwhelm upgrading capacity

CALGARY -- Gains in oil sands production is expected to outstrip increases in Alberta`s processing capacity over the next decade as oil companies go slow on building new facilities to protect profit margins and guard against the return of surging construction costs.

The province`s energy regulator said on Monday that this trend will prevail despite government efforts to foster construction of upgrading plants to bolster economic activity and job creation from the vast oil sands resources of northern Alberta, the largest crude source outside the Middle East.

In its annual report, the Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB) predicted production of raw bitumen from the oil sands would more than double to 3.2 million barrels a day by 2019 from 1.49 million in 2009.

The figure for last year was up 14% from 2008.

Output of upgraded synthetic oil, meanwhile, is expected to hit 1.3 million barrels a day, a 77% increase in 10 years, the ERCB said.

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Calgary jobs market sees hope in hiring trend: survey

CALGARY - Despite a rising unemployment rate, prospects for Calgary job seekers may be improving, a new survey shows.

An uptick in oilpatch activity and rebounding housing markets are lending strength to job markets, Manpower Inc. said in its latest quarterly outlook to be released today.

The survey found 15 per cent of Calgary businesses plan to hire over the next three months, compared with 12 per cent during the same period a year ago.

Only four per cent anticipate layoffs, the survey found, compared with 18 per cent during the same quarter in 2009. For the fourth consecutive quarter, three-quarters expect to maintain staffing, a sign the worst of the layoffs may have passed.

"It`s what we have been hoping to see -- slow and steady improvement -- and it`s there and it`s happening," said Randy Upright, chief executive of Manpower`s Alberta region.

Read the full article here.
 
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