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September 2013 Alberta Economic Fundamentals

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Keystone XL decision delay seen giving time for climate concessions



Obama
can say, ``You know what? Yeah, I approved the pipeline, but I also put
in place a policy on carbon and carbon emissions are falling, so get
off my back.``




A decision on whether to
approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline may slip into next year, giving
opponents time to marshal efforts against it while offering President
Barack Obama a chance to wring concessions from Canada.





The U.S.
State Department is reviewing TransCanada Corp.`s request to build the
US$5.3-billion link from Alberta`s oil sands to U.S. refineries in the
Gulf Coast. The department said it won`t complete its
environmental-impact review of the pipeline until after reviewing and
publishing 1.5 million public comments it received, a months-long
process that could be completed as soon as this week.



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Canjar: Secondary suites the answer in post-flood Calgary




A post-flood housing crisis is looming in Calgary. The race to provide rental space for people, including the hoard of university students coming to the city, is on.






With many people out of their homes because of the flood, both displaced residents and new renters are trying to get into Calgary`s rental market. As a consequence, Calgary`s 1.7 per cent vacancy rate has dropped to zero per cent. Policy changes are urgently needed to help accommodate those looking to rent.






Secondary suites could be the answer. These affordable options, also called basement suites or granny suites, are self-contained living spaces consisting of a bedroom, bathroom and kitchen, located within a single family home, with a separate entrance, or as a stand-alone unit on the initial dwelling`s property. These suites provide affordable housing to those who need it and they can provide a source of additional income to homeowners.



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Calgary condo price and sales growth forecast for 2014







Median price hike best in Canada this year




CALGARY ` Record growth is not in the foreseeable future of the Canadian condo market, but it is also likely the sector will be able to avoid a major downturn, according to the latest Conference Board of Canada condo report released Wednesday by Genworth Canada.






The Summer 2013 Metropolitan Condo Outlook suggests population growth and employment gains will help maintain demand levels to absorb supply inventory.






Calgary starts will be hampered in the third quarter by the flooding earlier in the year, but as the `youngest` city in the survey, it is expected to enjoy the highest growth in starts and resale volumes in 2014, with price growth at a moderate level of two per cent to 3.5 per cent over the next few years, said the report.





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Insurance policies changing in wake of floods




Insurance companies are rethinking what coverage they offer, and at what cost, following the heavy rains and flooding that swamped Toronto and parts of Alberta this summer.






Water damage is now a `major issue` for insurers, unlike years past when such coverage was often tacked on to policies as an after-thought, according to Greg Robertson of R. Robertson Insurance Brokers in Toronto.






`Back in the day, water coverage was inexpensive because water wasn`t as big an issue,` Robertson said Thursday on CBC Radio`s Metro Morning. `But now the changes to weather patterns cause rains to come on strong, sudden, and to dump extreme amounts of water.`






The total cost of the flooding in Alberta is estimated at over $5 billion. The cost to insurers from Toronto`s flood is pegged at $850 million.







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Floods boost sales along with prices




Flooding that destroyed many homes in the city in late June likely lifted resale activity in July, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.






Sales of single-family resale homes climbed to 1,575 deals in July, up 14 per cent compared to 1,382 homes during the same month last year, says the board.






`Some of this activity is related to the displaced renters and owners seeking other accommodation,` said chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie of CREB in a news release. `But those consumers already searching for a home may have sped up their purchase decision in response to concerns regarding the impact tight supply levels would have on prices.`



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No secondary suite relief in sight as housing crunch worsens




Mayor Naheed Nenshi predicts the rental vacancy rate will approach zero after the floods pushed hundreds from their homes, but also notes that it probably won`t be possible for city council to ease secondary suite rules until near the end of 2013.






Calgary`s rental vacancy rate stood at 1.2 per cent in April, less than half what it was a year ago, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. has reported.






One of Canada`s tightest rental markets, Calgary also has some of the most restrictive zoning limits on basement suites compared to other big cities.







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Population growth good for economy




Alberta`s natural population growth continues to lead the country and the Red Deer region is just short of the provincial average.






Natural population is the birth rate minus the death rate and does not include immigration.






According to Statistics Canada, Alberta`s natural population growth averages 7.7 people per 1,000. Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake, which includes Fort McMurray, has highest rate in the province at 12.3. Calgary is slightly above average at 8.5. Red Deer region is at 7.3. Edmonton is 6.9.






The statistics are from annual demographic estimates from July 2011 to June 2012.





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Alberta population on pace to top four million this year




Alberta`s population is set to top four million this year, outpacing the provincial government`s earlier forecast.






The rapid population growth brings benefits, such as workers for Alberta`s bustling economy, but the added people also place increasing demands on the province`s physical and social infrastructure.






During the first quarter of 2013, 27,100 people from other parts of Canada and abroad moved to Alberta ` the highest level on record.






`It`s expected we`ll reach more than five million people in less than two decades. We`re already on track to reach four million people this year,` Alberta Finance Minnister Doug Horner said while delivering the provincial government`s quarterly fiscal update last week.





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Despite a tight rental market, students at the U of C say housing was easy to find




June`s flood may have dampened the rental market for some students heading to university and college this year in Calgary, but many have found a way around the tightening rental market.






The city`s rental vacancy rate is the lowest in the country, hovering around one per cent, but most students at the University of Calgary tell 660News it wasn`t as hard as expected to find somewhere to live.






Students who talked to 660News say they had heard housing was tight but, luckily they have family in the area and are staying with them.






Others say they`ll be staying in residence thanks to the university`s website.





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Calgary housing market booming in August









Records set for luxury home sales, median and average sale prices






CALGARY ` Calgary`s red-hot housing market was sizzling in August as records were set for the most luxury home sales ever for the month, the highest median and average sale prices for the month and the second highest ever total MLS sales during the month.






The booming market was punctuated by another first near the end of the month. Last Friday, 12 luxury homes ($1 million plus) sold in Calgary ` the most ever for a single day, according to Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty in Calgary.



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Lure of jobs in Alberta not enough to get workers to stay: StatsCan




CALGARY - A Statistics Canada study suggests that the lure of jobs in Alberta's energy sector isn't enough to persuade out-of-province workers to make a permanent move.






The study found there were plenty of people moving to Alberta between 2004 and 2009. But only one in four who were coming for jobs decided to make Alberta their primary residence. They listed their home province on their tax returns.






"While some of the inter-provincial workers observed in this study subsequently made a residential move to Alberta, at least as identified on their T1 tax return, most did not," wrote the authors, Christine Laporte, Yuqian Lu and Grant Schellenberg.






"It is likely that factors such as family ties, social networks, organizational arrangements (e.g. daycare, school enrolment), home ownership and quality of life were important factors," they wrote.







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Edmonton-area housing market still strong




EDMONTON - Edmonton-region home prices showed a moderate upswing in
August compared to a year ago, according to statistics released
Wednesday by the Realtors Association of Edmonton.






`Our market
continues to exhibit strong fundamentals,` said association president
Darrell Cook. `Rental vacancy rates are low at about 1.2 per cent, new
home starts are up and weekly take-home pay rates are the highest in
Canada.`






The average single-family dwelling sold for $416,494 in
August, up 1.5 per cent from July and up 5.4 per cent from August 2012.
The median selling price for a single-family dwelling was $380,100, down
1.3 per cent from July but up 2.7 per cent year-over-year.







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Amid rental crunch, hundreds of students struggle to find homes




With lectures and orientations gearing up this week, hundreds of post-secondary students are still struggling to find homes amid Calgary`s tight rental market.




Student leaders plan to pressure candidates in the upcoming civic election to legalize secondary suites in more communities, providing affordable, safer rental options for students.





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Calgary region sees total housing starts decline in August




CALGARY ` Total housing starts in the Calgary region were down in August, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.




The agency reported Tuesday that starts of 982 in the Calgary census metropolitan area were off from 1,039 in August 2012.





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DOWNTOWN: A Place to call home



a cumulative review of residential development in downtown Edmonton




OVERVIEW & OBJECTIVES

Three major features contribute to a strong and

vibrant Downtown: (i) many skilled and diverse

residents, (ii) the presence of local amenities and

businesses, and (iii) continued innovation and

growth. Together, these components stoke the fire

of Downtown`s vitality, enhancing the long-term

standard of living and economic growth enjoyed by

Edmontonians. Our Downtown increasingly features

all three of these key components, forecasting

continued development for years to come.

The Edmonton Downtown Business Association

has commissioned this report to document the

cumulative residential growth from 1998 to the

present within the 8 x 16 block region comprising

Edmonton`s Downtown borders. Additionally

outlined are some of the possible ancillary effects

of this development, as well as the future potential

for residential development in the Downtown core.





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Amid rental crunch, hundreds of students struggle to find homes




With lectures and orientations gearing up this week, hundreds of
post-secondary students are still struggling to find homes amid
Calgary`s tight rental market.






Student leaders plan to pressure
candidates in the upcoming civic election to legalize secondary suites
in more communities, providing affordable, safer rental options for
students.






`For those that haven`t found anything yet, they are
either with family or friends, and probably couch-surfing,` said Kenneth
Taylor, vice-president of external relations for the SAIT Student`s
Association.






`The question is, where are these students going to
find something? And even for those that have, they are paying $150 more
than they did last year. It becomes an issue of affordability.`







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Calgary region sees total housing starts decline in August



but single-detached market increases




CALGARY ` Total housing starts in the Calgary region were down in August, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.






The agency reported Tuesday that starts of 982 in the Calgary census metropolitan area were off from 1,039 in August 2012.






The single-detached market saw starts rise from 505 last year to 571 this year but the multi-family market experienced a decline from 534 in 2012 to 411 in 2013.






`The trend in single-detached construction remains steady as new home demand benefits from job creation, equity gains in the resale market and rising incomes,` said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for the CMHC. `Many prospective buyers have taken advantage of the options in the new home market, especially with mortgage rates relatively low and a decline of active listings in the competing resale market.





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Renters: what $1200/month gets you in Calgary vs. elsewhere



Calgary is second only to Vancouver when it comes to average monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment ($1,202). We compare Calgary to other major centres to see what $1,200 gets you across Canada - from one bedroom in Vancouver to three in Montreal.







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Calgary transit to buy 60 new LRT cars





The next generation of CTrain cars will arrive in late 2015. To the relief of those used to the morning and afternoon sardine-can drill, it will also include the first generation of four-car LRT chains.




After welcoming bids from four other companies ` including Canada`s Bombardier ` Calgary Transit chose to stick with Munich-based Siemens, which has built every car since the system first rolled to Anderson Station in 1981.





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