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April 2013 B.C. Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for April 2013.
 

Ally

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Facts - not rhetoric - needed on housing supply, affordability




We've heard a lot of emotion-charged statements and big leap assumptions over the last few weeks in Vancouver about the changes that real estate development continues to bring to the city.




The rhetoric around these issues often masks the facts. Take, for example, the discussion about foreign investment in Vancouver's real estate market and the impact it might have on housing supply and affordability.





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Vancouver police warn about rent con artist




Vancouver police are hunting for a man they say has been conning people into renting property he

doesn`t own.




The scammer placed online ads offering a Vancouver property for rent and posed as the property owner, walking them through the prospective accommodations.





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BC housing forecast to be soft for the next few years






BC housing will drag on provincial economic growth in 2013 and 2014 as constrained demand will suppress home sales and growing inventory will lead developers to dial back project starts.




Weak BC housing market conditions will fuel modest price declines in most regions this year before stabilizing in the latter half. Resale transaction volume and housing starts are expected to trend to more respectable levels in 2015, as stronger economic growth results in higher incomes and demand fuels activity.





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Global demand expected to remain high enough for LNG development in BC




Despite uncertainties about the price liquefied natural gas will bring in Asian markets, demand for energy is going to be high enough to ensure that some, if not all, of the five proposed British Columbia LNG plants are built, the co-chair of the Pacific Energy Summit said Thursday.




Kevin Lynch, who is also vice-chair of BMO Financial Group, said `unambiguous demand` from Asia`s growing economies will keep prices high enough to make LNG profitable.





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Glut of baby boomers a big economic issue for B.C.




Canada would experience more robust economic and social growth if it rewarded risk-takers and reconsidered entitlement programs that are disproportionately benefiting baby boomers at the expense of children and young workers, a summit on British Columbia`s economy heard Friday.




The event, co-produced by the Business Council of B.C. and the B.C. Chamber of Commerce, attracted an international roster of speakers including former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, former Obama government economic adviser Christina Romer and former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge. It was part of a `shared prosperity` dialogue series the two B.C. groups launched last September.





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Four more LNG pipeline projects proposed for B.C.



British Columbia`s potential LNG production boom just got louder.





Energy Minister Rich Coleman announced Wednesday that the provincial government has received four `new major international LNG project proposals` to develop liquefied natural gas export terminals, all in the Prince Rupert area.





That`s on top of six multi-billion-dollar export facilities already proposed for Kitimat and Prince Rupert, and at least two others that are in preliminary stages of consideration.




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Adrian Dix's film plan is better politics than policy




The move may prove to be good politics, but beefed-up film subsidies announced Tuesday by NDP leader Adrian Dix are bad policy.




Even if you believe it`s worth pumping hundreds of millions of provincial tax dollars year after year into this or any other industry ` I don`t ` this film subsidy is problematic. The way it was set up by the NDP government of yore, then bolstered hugely by the Liberals guarantees it can`t build an industry that stands on its own.



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Traditional path to career is leading nowhere for many B.C. job seekers




Paige MacKenzie, 26, did exactly what she was told. She went to university. She got top grades. She volunteered. And she completed a professional internship at a reputable institution related to her field of study.



Yet, almost a full year after graduating from Simon Fraser University, with a BA in international studies with a minor in political science, she's having a tough time landing a job.





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Vancouver home sales up in March: CREA




Home sales in Vancouver were up in March compared with February, according to Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data released this morning.










There were 2,122 homes sold in Vancouver in March, an 8.6% increase compared with the number of homes sold the previous month (1,954).





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The race is on as B.C. elections begin




The race to determine B.C.'s next government begins Tuesday.




Between tomorrow and May 14 the different party leaders will try and convince the province's eligible voters why they should be premier.




Premier Christy Clark heads into the election with her BC Liberal Party currently holding 45 of the 85 seats in the Legislative Assembly. BC NDP leader Adrian Dix is hoping to improve on his party's 36 seats.





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Vacancy rates decline in downtown Prince George






Prince George, B.C.- The latest survey of vacancy rates among retail and office space, shows there has

been a decline in the vacancy rate in the downtown.





According to the survey, there were 72,768 square meters of retail space available in the downtown, and 121,257 square meters of office space. Those numbers do not include the Plaza 400 or the Oxford building as those two buildings are only available for government operations.




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Metro Vancouver real estate market update




With the reintroduction of the GST/PST tax regime on April 1st, we have received some questions about how this will affect the real estate market. The short answer is: There will be a minimal effect; some people will win, while others will lose. However, we must break down its effects into 3 separate categories: New Construction, Resale, and Fees.






New Construction





This category is the one that is likely to be most influenced by the change back from HST to GST. All new residential construction will be taxable at the 5% rate rather than the previous 12%. However, the government will also be eliminating the New Housing Rebate, and adding a 2% transitional tax (for a total 7% rate, down from 12%). With the lower tax burden, there should be a net savings for buyers of newly constructed real estate in B.C.





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District of North Van bylaw prevents stratas from restricting rentals




The District of North Vancouver has neutered local stratas in an attempt to increase the municipality`s rental housing stock ` and it`s hoping its neighbours will follow suit.




Councillors voted unanimously last week to prevent stratas from restricting the number of rental units in new strata developments that require rezoning. Coun. Mike Little said he hoped the measure could be rolled out across the region to mitigate Metro Vancouver`s rental housing crunch.





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High prices, short supply sending investors overseas; Vancouver's corporate housing market improving




Real estate brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle`s new Vancouver-based vice-president, capital markets says high asset prices and a lack of available product are sending investors ` including Canada`s ` overseas in search of investment opportunities.










`Canadian capital has been one of the top cross-border purchasers in the past two years,` said Lucy Fletcher, who heads Jones Lang LaSalle`s International Capital Group in Canada. `Everyone wants to get access to the real estate sector as they increase their allocations.`





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More people can't afford to live in Coquitlam




One of the most comprehensive studies of housing affordability in the Tri-Cities has been released in time to give political parties an opportunity to educate themselves before the May 14 provincial election.










But the author of the report says the release of the Tri-Cities Annual Housing Affordability Report a few weeks before the election is "fortuitous," although mostly coincidence.





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Election overview: It's the economy, stupid




Legend has it that James Carville, campaign strategist for Bill Clinton`s successful 1992 presidential run, posted a sign at campaign headquarters that succinctly set out the key messages: `Change versus more of the same; the economy, stupid; and don`t forget health care.`




These concepts transcend time and geography. They apply to most political campaigns in virtually all advanced democracies, including British Columbia.





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Key sectors, and what they bring to BC






Oil & gas





The figures




GDP: Oil and gas extraction contributed $6.1 billion to B.C.`s industrial gross domestic product in 2011, or 3.2 per cent of provincial GDP.




Employment: Oil and gas extraction, direct jobs 2012: 3,500




Trade/exports: Value of B.C. natural gas exports to all countries in 2012: $1.5 billion (2011, $1.9 billion). Total for Canada: $8.5 billion in 2012.Oil, other energy exports (not including electricity or coal), B.C. in 2012: $766 million (2011, $641 million). Total for Canada $98.8 billion in 2012.




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BC's labour market weaker than worst of recession




During an economic downturn, the official unemployment rate becomes an increasingly unreliable indicator of the true health of the labour market. This is because Statistics Canada, when it calculates that rate, requires job-seekers to meet a certain minimum standard of search activity in order to be officially considered a labour market "participant."




If there is no meaningful chance of finding a suitable job in their community, most rational individuals stop submitting applications. And this is understandable. But once they stop actively seeking work to the satisfaction of Statistics Canada, they disappear from the rolls of the unemployed. They are now called discouraged workers -- or, even more dehumanizing, "non-participants." Hence the official unemployment rate comes to understate the true extent of labour market slackness.





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Black works to keep Kitimat refinery dream alive




It was 5 a.m. in Hangzhou, a city of more than six million west of Shanghai that until David Black called me earlier this month, I couldn't place on a map.




Black was phoning the morning after announcing an agreement in principle with China's largest bank to provide financing for the Victoria newspaper publisher's grand dream of building a refinery near Kiti-mat to process bitumen from Alberta.





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