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October 2009

Ally

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News articles for October 2009.
 

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B.C. Real Estate turning to a `Seller`s Market`: Report

VANCOUVER — Rising sales and limited listings have returned Canada to a "seller`s market," with total B.C. home sales this year up nearly seven per cent compared to 2008, according to a Global Real Estate Trends report released Thursday by Scotia Economics.

"In terms of trends, sales in B.C. have been picking up since January," Adrienne Warren, senior economist at Scotia Economics, said in an interview. "And it`s been increasing steadily since. For prices the low point was in April."

The report concluded that home sales in 2009 in B.C., compiled to the end of August on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, rose to 73,211 units sold compared to 68,923 in 2008.

However, the average price of a home sold in B.C. is slightly down to $433,017 compared to $454,599 last year.

In Vancouver, home sales are up to 31,151 compared to 25,149 sold in 2008, while the average price for a sold home in Vancouver has fallen to $531,790 in 2009 from $593,767 in 2008.

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B.C. and Alberta in a Natural Gas Poker Game

CALGARY -- British Columbia fired the latest round Thursday in the North American battle to woo natural gas producers, unveiling miniscule royalty rates and millions of dollars in fresh infrastructure incentives in a move that may force neighbouring Alberta to respond to in kind.

In an effort to prod natural gas production in its Montney and Horn River shale plays, B.C. reduced the royalty rate on wells drilled between September and June 2010 to 2% for one year. Producers now pay an average royalty rate of about 20%.

"The oil and gas industry`s capital is mobile -- it can be invested anywhere in the world, so if you want to be a part of that, you want to ensure you have a competitive jurisdiction," Blair Lekstrom, B.C.`s minister of energy, mines and petroleum resources, said in an interview. "We want to secure the future of the oil and gas industry in British Columbia."

Alberta and B.C., Canada`s top natural-gas producers, have traded royalty announcements this year. In March, B.C. rolled out royalty breaks, extending a program it launched in 2004. Alberta unveiled its own incentives a day later, reducing royalties on some new conventional oil and gas wells to 5% or less for at least a year. It later extended that program in June.

While the two provinces are in fierce competition with each other, the royalty rate war extends beyond Canada`s borders. Prolific natural gas basins such as the Barnett shale in Texas and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania are sponging up billions of dollars worth of investments.

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Pengrowth boosts Horn River stake

CALGARY - Calgary-based Pengrowth Energy Trust is spending $11 million to add to its stake in the Horn River Basin in northeastern British Columbia, it said Tuesday, five days after announcing a strategic change to focus on resource plays.

Under the deal with an unnamed vendor, Pengrowth will buy rights to 11,600 hectares of undeveloped land for $9 million and pay $2 million for the vendor`s interest in a standing cased well bore.

The trust said the addition will make Pengrowth the ninth-largest land holder in the Horn River, site of a shale play estimated to contain as much as 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, with 29,000 net hectares.

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Expect `Flat to be the New up` as B.C.`s Economy exits Recession

METRO VANCOUVER -- The recession may be over, but British Columbians should expect "flat to be the new up," economically speaking, for the near future, attendees at the Surrey Regional Economic Summit heard Tuesday morning.

RBC chief economist Craig Wright made that comment in his overview that B.C. and Canada are showing small signs of recovery, but bigger global economic forces need to move before we see more significant growth.

"We don`t view this as a made in B.C. or made in Canada recession, so it is not going to be a made in B.C. recovery," Wright said.

The positive signs, according to panelists on the summit`s plenary session, include a bounce-back in world stock markets, a small resurgence in global trade flows and rising confidence among business leaders.

The panelists spoke during the plenary session of the summit at the Sheraton Hotel in the Guildford area of Surrey, preceding former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair`s keynote address.

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B.C. Small Business confidence Surging

Signs are emerging that B.C. small business confidence is on the upswing. CFIB`s Business Barometer Index for B.C. is currently 65.8. Last month it was at 63.6.

The majority of small businesses in B.C. report that the overall state of business is satisfactory (29 per cent) or good (46 per cent).

On the national scale, B.C. remained in the fifth position in terms of optimism for the second month running.

At least one major concern of small business in the province is easing. Over the last month, concern over insufficient domestic demand dropped from 61 per cent to 52 per cent.

The most significant cost pressure for small business in the province? Some 65 per cent of B.C. small businesses cited tax and regulatory costs.

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Home Prices up in Lower Mainland, but Sales Levels fluctuate

VANCOUVER - Low mortgage rates continue to entice first-time buyers into the real estate market, pushing up prices in the Lower Mainland and keeping sales hot.

Home sales in the Vancouver area continued upward in September, with 3,559 sales through the Multiple Listing Service, up 3.4 per cent from the 3,441 sales in August, according to numbers released Friday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

Prices have followed suit, and benchmark prices — the average price of a typical home in a particular market, such as detached or condominium — were 1.6 per cent higher in September than they were a year earlier, regaining much, but not all of the losses suffered since the peaks reached in the summer of 2008.

Interest rates are still playing a large role, attracting first-time buyers, said Scott Russell, president of the REBGV.

Rates on mortgages hit all-time lows in May, but while they have inched back up they still remain incredibly low.

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B.C. Real Estate returning to Seller`s Market: Report

VANCOUVER — Rising sales and limited listings have returned Canada to a "seller`s market," with total B.C. home sales this year up nearly seven per cent compared to 2008, according to a Global Real Estate Trends report released Thursday by Scotia Economics.

"In terms of trends, sales in B.C. have been picking up since January," Adrienne Warren, senior economist at Scotia Economics, said in an interview. "And it`s been increasing steadily since. For prices the low point was in April."

The report concluded that home sales in 2009 in B.C., compiled to the end of August on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, rose to 73,211 units sold compared to 68,923 in 2008.

However, the average price of a home sold in B.C. is slightly down to $433,017 compared to $454,599 last year.

In Vancouver, home sales are up to 31,151 compared to 25,149 sold in 2008, while the average price for a sold home in Vancouver has fallen to $531,790 in 2009 from $593,767 in 2008.

Read the full article here.
 

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British Columbia leads the Country as Value of Non-Residential Building Permits soar

The value of building permits issued in British Columbia rose by 47.5 per cent from July to August, by far the largest percentage increase of any province, helping boost the national gain to a higher-than-expected 7.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

The value of building permits issued by B.C. municipalities in August rose to $912.7 million, up from $619 million in July. But B.C.`s increase was entirely in the non-residential sector, as the value of permits for home construction dropped by 7.4 per cent, dragged down by a sharp drop in multi-family dwellings. The non-residential sector increased by 131 per cent, led by institutional-government projects.

Ontario posted the next largest gain, at 21.3 per cent, with increases in both the home sector and the non-residential sector.

In Metro Vancouver the increase was just 8.7 per cent, but the census metropolitan areas of Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna reported far bigger gains, with a 49.5-per-cent increase in the Fraser Valley and a whopping 380.8-per-cent rise in the Okanagan metro region.

The national gain of 7.2 per cent, to $5 billion, beat forecasts, Statistics Canada said. Most economists had expected permit values to rise five per cent in August.

This follows a revised 10-per- cent decline in building permits for July.

Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities, said the August report "offers some encouragement on the state of Canadian construction

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B.C. at Forefront of Small Business Growth, report says

Strong immigration is one reason B.C. should remain a top province for small and medium size businesses (SMEs), according to a report Monday from CIBC World Markets.

"British Columbia, the province with the largest economic contribution from small business, will remain an attractive spot for SMEs due to economic growth that is likely to match the national average, high small business survival rates, and a projected strong inflow of new immigrants," the report concluded.

However, it also noted: "British Columbia is also highly sensitive to a rise in the dollar, largely due to its reliance on the forestry industry."

The report, by author and senior economist Benjamin Tal, concluded that Alberta has emerged as the most promising province for growth in the sector, scoring 10 out of 10 on CIBC`s outlook, followed closely by Ontario, at 9.8, and B.C. at 9.5. The outlook comprises several metrics -- such as growth in self-employment, sectoral mix and the degree to which corporations are outsourcing core activities -- and finds Atlantic Canada at the lower end of the scale.

Nationally, the report said that SMEs have outperformed their larger peers during the economic downturn and are poised to maintain their advantage as the recovery unfolds.

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Changing People Changing Places: Demographic and Economic change in British Columbia

• For Outlook 2020

The Business Council of British Columbia

Executive Summary

British Columbia`s population is growing older much faster than it is growing; over the coming years the 65 plus population will grow at more than three times the rate of the working aged population. This has profound implications for what we require from our economy and its ability to meet these expectations. The 30 percent of our population in the Post World War Two baby boomer cohort – currently aged 44 to 63 – has begun aging into retirement, leaving the labour force just as a smaller younger age group enters it. The result will be significant growth in the number of people who are the primary beneficiaries of age specific transfer programs, such as health care and pension plans, at a time when the number of labour force participants, the primary contributors to these programs, is growing modestly.

The rapid growth of the older population means that we will seek proportionally more from our economy in the future than we have in the past. At the same time, the slow growth of the labour supply contribution to the economy has the potential to constrain its ability to provide the goods and services residents require and expect. To avoid this, more of us are going to have to work, and work later in life; we are going to have to increase our productivity; and we are going to continue to welcome people from the rest of the world to help us with the work.

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Vancouver`s Resale Real-Estate rebound `too much, too fast`

The recent whipsaw rebound in Metro Vancouver`s resale housing markets was likely "too much, too fast," according to the estimate of TD Economics` latest housing outlook.

After collapsing by just over one-third in 2008 compared with the previous year, the number of home sales in Metro so far in 2009 is 19 per cent higher than a year ago, TD said in the report.

And while average resale values dropped by about one-third to $436,000 between last October and this April, TD said prices recovered to an average $608,000 by August, a mere eight per cent from their previous peak.

However, for Metro Vancouver, Gauthier said TD Economics` estimate is that the pent-up demand that welled up during the uncertainty of last fall`s financial crisis was largely met by June.

"The current sales rally will probably wane in the months ahead," said report author, economist Pascal Gauthier, "and more listings have started to come on tap, a trend we expect to continue."

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Metro Vancouver Single-Family Housing Starts rise, but Multi-Family still down

METRO VANCOUVER — Metro Vancouver`s ailing residential housing sector showed another sign of recovery in September with starts of single-family homes for the month outpacing the number started in the same month a year ago, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Thursday.

Total September starts of all housing types for the region were still less than half of what they were a year ago, but the federal housing agency noted that the numbers have kept rising from extremely low levels earlier in the year, and the bump-up of single-family starts is a positive sign.

"I was a little bit surprised [at the jump]," CMHC analyst Robyn Adamache said in an interview. "It`s the first month [this year] that we`ve seen a year-over-year increase in anything, so it`s good news."

Adamache surmised that the reason single-family developments are seeing a bit of a jump is because they are projects where builders can be more flexible in how they phase them, building only the units they are able to pre-sell, meaning there is less risk associated with them.

Metro Vancouver saw 369 single-family homes started in September, up from 337 a year ago.

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B.C. shows Canada`s biggest Job gains in September

British Columbia saw the most notable increase in employment across Canada in September adding 14,000 jobs that brought the province`s unemployment rate to 7.4 per cent, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

Some of the biggest gains were in manufacturing, which saw 5,900 people hired, and the construction sector, which — after shedding tens-of-thousands-of positions over the last year — added 4,000 jobs in September.

"Although down 1.7 per cent since October 2008, employment in this province has been increasing since March 2009," Statistics Canada said in the September Labour Force Survey.

Ken Peacock, director of economic research for the Business Council of B.C., said the bump in jobs "speaks to a little bit of resiliency in the British Columbia economy."

He noted that a big chunk of the September jobs were part-time, not full-time, but he found it encouraging that the hiring was spread across the public and private sectors compared with the summer when a lot of job gains came from self-employment.

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Industrial Tax Battle gaining Steam despite Court Ruling

Heavy industry is turning up the pressure on Victoria to step into the tax battle between forest manufacturing companies and resource towns after B.C. Supreme Court ruled last week that its up to government, not the courts to address the issue.

In rejecting pulp and paper maker Catalyst Paper`s claim that the tax bylaw North Cowichan sets for its Crofton pulp mill is illegal, Justice Peter Voith acknowledged what he calls "broad structural difficulties associated with major industry doing business in British Columbia."

"These are matters properly addressed by different levels of government and not the courts," Justice Voith said in his Oct. 16 decision.

The ruling is being read carefully by companies across the province. Mercer International vice-president David Gandossi said he is focusing on those few lines. Gandossi said the ruling shows the system is broken and needs government intervention.

Mercer operates a pulp mill at Castlegar. It refused to pay all its taxes this year in a move that echoes Catalyst`s decision to pay only one quarter of the $23 million it has been assessed in four coastal municipalities.

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Plenty of Food for Thought in Canada-West Foundation Tax study

Do raise the HST, and lower income taxes; don`t exempt much, not even groceries. Do make tax bases broad and rates low; don`t cut taxes at the expense of needed services. Do worry about the tax rate, but focus even more on what is taxed and how the money is spent.

There`s plenty of food for thought — and for debate, regardless of whether you look at tax issues from the right or the left — in a newly released study by Casey Vander Ploeg of the Canada-West Foundation.

But even if this study puts a bee in every bonnet, it`s worth a policymaker`s or a thinking citizen`s time. Because it takes an all-too-rare approach, focusing on the West, yet encompassing the whole mix of taxes that fund our governments and influence how and how fast our economies grow.

It`s often a mug`s game to analyse and debate taxes one at a time, although that`s what most of us do. The links among the myriad taxes imposed by all levels of government are so numerous and complex — and so often conflict with each other in what behaviour they foster or impede — that it`s impossible to know for sure whether it`s wise or worthwhile to tweak just one little thread in the web.

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B.C. Home Prices could hit new highs in 2010

The rebound in B.C. housing sales from the recession is the strongest on record, Central 1 Credit Union said Tuesday, predicting that property prices will regain all of their downturn losses by the end of this year.

Central 1 chief economist Helmut Pastrick said the housing sales rebound has already surpassed the strength of the recovery from the 1991 recession.

Pastrick said the resurgence has combined with diminishing inventories of unsold homes to force prices upward.

Prices will eventually hit an "affordability squeeze," Pastrick said, reaching a ceiling that forces new buyers out of the market.

However, in one of the first major fall housing forecasts, Pastrick said observers should not "underestimate the power of ... very low and attractive mortgage rates" to keep driving the market.

He said that as buyers embrace historically low mortgage rates, that momentum "will carry into 2010, driving unit sales and prices to new highs."

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Natural Gas fails to pull its weight

Rising natural-gas prices may bring some relief to Canada`s dismal export picture but the fossil fuel`s economic contribution may be muted by the strong Canadian dollar and declining output, the result of energy companies pulling back production plans during the past two years.

Natural gas settled at US$5.16 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, up nearly 7% on the day. The spot price for natural gas dipped below US$3 in August, a seven-year low.

"It could end up being net neutral," said Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist at Calgary`s ARC Financial Corp. "The good news is price is going up; the bad news is volume is going down."

Energy`s contribution to the Canadian economy has traditionally been split 50/50 between oil and gas, Mr. Tertzakian said.

That divide, however, has been shifting in oil`s favour as bitumen production and demand are climbing and natural-gas efforts have slowed.

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Metro Vancouver predicts 50 Per Cent Tax increase over Five Years

Metro Vancouver predicts the average homeowner will face a 50-per-cent increase — or $661 — in their tax bill in five years as the region grapples with providing sewage, water and garbage pickup services to a growing population.

The increased taxes for regional services are in addition to property tax increases imposed by individual municipalities.

According to a draft budget report for 2010, Metro Vancouver must spend $5 billion in the next 10 years on upgrading its aging infrastructure, including the Iona and Lions Gate sewage treatment plants, and finding an alternative to the Cache Creek dump.

But with money so tight that Metro expects to do only "critical repairs" on infrastructure next year, regional mayors continue to plead for capital funding help from senior levels of government.

"We know that we`ve got some very, very significant infrastructure needs over the next couple of years," said Richmond Mayor Malcolm Brodie, chairman of Metro`s finance committee.

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West Fraser to shurt Kitimat Mill

West Fraser Timber says it is shutting down its Eurocan pulp mill at Kitimat, throwing 535 people out of work.

The mill will close Jan. 31, the company said in a news release late Wednesday.

Company president Hank Ketcham blamed "a steep decline" in the mill`s financial results for the closure.

Prices for its products -- linerboard and kraft paper -- are falling, the high Canadian dollar has knocked down revenues, and sawmills in the region have shut down, reducing the supply of low-cost chips for the mill.

Ketcham made the announcement in person at the Kitimat mill.

"We deeply regret the impact the mill closure will have on our 535 employees, their families and the community, and we will ensure those who are affected are treated with fairness and respect," Ketcham said in the release.

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