2012 Real Estate Predictions-- Winner Announced

[bizaro86]

With the 2011 contest coming to a successful conclusion (congrats to RandyDalton, 2011 winner!) I thought I'd post the questions for 2012. I've re-used some of them, and changed some to make them more topical to the year.



1) Regarding the government's CMHC mortgage rules what will be the minimum downpayments and maximum amortizations for personal residence? Currently I'm taking 5% down and 30 year amortization from here: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/hopr/hopr_001.cfm

a) 5% or less downpayment, 30 year or more amortization.

b) 6%+ minimum downpayment, 30 year or more amortization

c) 5% or less downpayment, less than 30 years maximum amortization

d) 6%+ minimum downpayment, less than 30 years maximum amortization



2) How many housing starts will CMHC report for 2012?

a)150,000 or less

b) 150,001-200,000

c)200,001-250,000

d)250,001 or more



3) At the end of the year, what will the political situation be?

a) Obama wins election, Greece remains in the Euro

b) Obama loses election, Greece remains in the Euro

c) Obama wins election, Greece leaves the Euro

d) Obama loses election, Greece leaves the Euro





4) At the end of the year, will the Canada-US exchange rate be:

(determined from B.o.C. data here on Dec 31: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchange.html)

a) 1 CAD is less than or equal to $0.95 USD

b) 1 CAD is between $0.95 and and $1.00 USD

c) 1 CAD is between $1.00 and $1.05 USD

d) 1 CAD is greater than or equal to $1.05



5) At the end of the year, the Bank of Canada overnight target rate will be (Currently 1.00%)

a) 1.00% or less

b) 1.01%-1.75%

c) 1.76%-2.5%

d) 2.51% or more



6) What will the change of the Teranet Composite 11 House Price Index be for October 2012 (I picked October so we could still have a winner by January). The year over year number will be used, so predict the change from Oct 2011-Oct 2012.

a) Decline of 2.0% or greater

b) Decline of 1.99% to increase of 1.99%

c) Increase of 2.0% to increase 5.99%

d) Increase of 6.0% to increase of 9.99%

e) Increase of 10.0% or greater



Tiebreaker: Vancouver had a 9.99% increase in it's Teranet index price year over year to October 2011. What will be it's price change year over year to 2012?



We'll take new answers until January 24th, so feel free to edit your guesses until then.



Regards,



Michael

 

[orei]

Michael, you should use one of the free polling websites online - no need to collect the result and create a huge thread here. Just set the poll up and put a link on this thread.



Saves everyone time!

 

[bizaro86]

I didn't get so many responses last year as to warrant redoing it now that I have a thread started, but if it takes off this year I'll do a poll next year. I also like having it as a thread to see if we get a bit of a discussion of the different questions going.



As to my own predictions, they're below. (I was 2 for 5 last year, and would like to improve on that result this year, but we'll see)



1) A

2) B

3) A

4) B

5) B

6) C

tie breaker 11.4% Never underestimate the length of time a bubble can stay bubbly

 

[Tibo]

this is a great idea thanks so much for putting it together

I predict

1-A

2-A

3-B

4-D

5-B

6-C



Happy New Year

 

[HeatherBrandt]

Good idea, this has made me decide if/how these economic issues will affect me!



1. c

2. a

3. b

4. c

5. b

6. b



tiebreaker-4.2 %







Thanks,

 

[bizaro86]

We're coming up on the deadline, so get your predictions in now.



Invaluable bragging rights to the winner!

 

[FraserCampbell]

Sounds like fun and easier than stock market picking...



1 A

2 B

3 A

4 A

5 B

6 C



Not expecting much to change ;-)

 

[acurAspec]

1. A

2. B

3. A

4. A

5. A

6. D



Vancouver 9.2%

 

[bizaro86]

So, another year has past and it's time to announce the winner of my 2012 prediction contest.



This years correct answers are:



1. (c) 5%, <30 years

2. (b) 193,567 starts reported

3. (a) Obama wins, Greece still in

4. (c) 1 CAD = 1.0032 USD on close at Dec 31. This one was close

5. (a) Bank of Canada target overnight rate still 1.00%

6. (c) Teranet increased between 2.0% and 5.99%



We had a 3 way tie for number of correct answers, with myself FraserCampbell and acurAspec all making 3 correct predictions. The tiebreaker was predict the change in Vancouver prices, so my guess of +11.4% puts me out of the running, since Vancouver was negative over the period in question. That leaves acurAspec's prediction of 9.2% and Fraser Campbell who didn't make a prediction. So by the power vested in me, by me, I declare acurAspec the winner for 2012. Congratulations!



Thanks for entering everyone and be sure to try again in my 2013 predictions thread.