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Alberta`s big, bad oilsands are back in vogue ... but the oilsands boom isn`t coming back anytime soon.

DragonflyProperties

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Hi all,

An article from The Edmonton Journal. Excerpts:

Feel it? Suddenly, there`s a buzz in the air. Alberta`s big, bad oilsands are back in vogue. Oh, don`t get too excited -- or aggravated, depending on how you feel about North America`s biggest, messiest industrial project.

The oilsands boom isn`t coming back anytime soon. At least, not in its original, chaotic form.

No one is predicting a sudden gusher of overlapping, poorly planned megaprojects, a brand new influx of tens of thousands of foreign temporary workers, or a rapid rebound to $147-US-a-barrel oil prices.

In fact, another spike in prices (however unlikely) is the last thing anyone wants. That includes OPEC, which sees the current $75 to $80 price range as pretty close to optimal.

The last boom, as you`ll recall, ignited torrid inflation, chronic labour and material shortages, huge cost overruns, and a deluge of criticism from all quarters, from the enviro lobby to former Alberta premier Peter Lougheed.

In its wake, it left a string of cancelled or half-built projects, an army of unemployed workers and engineers, a meltdown in real estate markets, half-empty office towers in Calgary, and an ugly hole in the provincial budget.


Since those wounds are still fresh, any talk of an uptick is still fairly guarded.

Nonetheless, signs of positive momentum are building. Deals are being done, some projects are being restarted, and the financing taps are opening up.

Add it all up, and the picture is one of renewed growth for the oilsands. But this time around, if execs like Suncor CEO Rick George can be believed, it will be carefully stage-managed to avoid the pitfalls of the last boom.


Let`s hope he`s right.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Mo...9557/story.html

Keith
 

cm24

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Nice. Controlled growth is better. Sask`s oil sands should benefit from the moderated rate of growth when they get going.
 

greghead

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QUOTE (DragonflyProperties @ Nov 21 2009, 01:24 PM) Hi all,

An article from The Edmonton Journal. Excerpts:

Feel it? Suddenly, there`s a buzz in the air. Alberta`s big, bad oilsands are back in vogue. Oh, don`t get too excited -- or aggravated, depending on how you feel about North America`s biggest, messiest industrial project.

The oilsands boom isn`t coming back anytime soon. At least, not in its original, chaotic form.

No one is predicting a sudden gusher of overlapping, poorly planned megaprojects, a brand new influx of tens of thousands of foreign temporary workers, or a rapid rebound to $147-US-a-barrel oil prices.

In fact, another spike in prices (however unlikely) is the last thing anyone wants. That includes OPEC, which sees the current $75 to $80 price range as pretty close to optimal.

The last boom, as you`ll recall, ignited torrid inflation, chronic labour and material shortages, huge cost overruns, and a deluge of criticism from all quarters, from the enviro lobby to former Alberta premier Peter Lougheed.

In its wake, it left a string of cancelled or half-built projects, an army of unemployed workers and engineers, a meltdown in real estate markets, half-empty office towers in Calgary, and an ugly hole in the provincial budget.


Since those wounds are still fresh, any talk of an uptick is still fairly guarded.

Nonetheless, signs of positive momentum are building. Deals are being done, some projects are being restarted, and the financing taps are opening up.

Add it all up, and the picture is one of renewed growth for the oilsands. But this time around, if execs like Suncor CEO Rick George can be believed, it will be carefully stage-managed to avoid the pitfalls of the last boom.


Let`s hope he`s right.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Mo...9557/story.html

Keith


Hi Keith,

Good article with a realistic view of the cautious optimism right now in the oil sands. As for the steady growth, I think we can all agree slow and steady always wins the race, but that never seems to be the way of life in Alberta..

The steady climb and stability of oil prices in 2009 above the $70/bbl mark combined with a declining cost structure has given many producers the economic justification and confidence in the short term to proceed with previous planned projects. However, the longer term fundamentals is really what is of interest to companies right now and speaking of long-term fundamentals, those of you who have seen my oil and gas presentations at the REIN workshops in Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto the last couple months, heard me speak of the CERI (Canadian Energy Research Institute) study on the economic impact study on the oil and gas industry in Canada. The study looked at the economic impact to produce Canada`s existing proven reserves over the next 25 years. I thought your post, would be a good opportunity to provide a bit more detail from my presentation specifically in regards to the oil sands.

The link to this slide profiles the number of jobs required in Alberta to support the oil sands over the next 25 years. What you will see is the growth of ~ 100,000 jobs today in 2009 to ~580,000 jobs by 2021. What this should mean to us as real investors, just like oil & gas companies is don`t lost sight of the long-term fundamentals when making decisions today.

http://www.mediafire.com/file/zmzoxmzymcy/Oilsands job projections_AB.pdf

Regards,

Greg.
 

marcp

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I work as a research scientist at the Alberta Research Council, and just last week we were awarded over $4M in research and development contracts, to be completed within 66 weeks.

All the contracts are related to the development of sensors for the oil sands industry. All contracts were from a single operator up there.

We`re back to wondering where we`re going to find the people to execute these contracts now.

Cheers,
 

DragonflyProperties

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Messages
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QUOTE (greghead @ Nov 25 2009, 10:11 AM) Hi Keith,

Good article with a realistic view of the cautious optimism right now in the oil sands. As for the steady growth, I think we can all agree slow and steady always wins the race, but that never seems to be the way of life in Alberta..

The steady climb and stability of oil prices in 2009 above the $70/bbl mark combined with a declining cost structure has given many producers the economic justification and confidence in the short term to proceed with previous planned projects. However, the longer term fundamentals is really what is of interest to companies right now and speaking of long-term fundamentals, those of you who have seen my oil and gas presentations at the REIN workshops in Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto the last couple months, heard me speak of the CERI (Canadian Energy Research Institute) study on the economic impact study on the oil and gas industry in Canada. The study looked at the economic impact to produce Canada`s existing proven reserves over the next 25 years. I thought your post, would be a good opportunity to provide a bit more detail from my presentation specifically in regards to the oil sands.

The link to this slide profiles the number of jobs required in Alberta to support the oil sands over the next 25 years. What you will see is the growth of ~ 100,000 jobs today in 2009 to ~580,000 jobs by 2021. What this should mean to us as real investors, just like oil & gas companies is don`t lost sight of the long-term fundamentals when making decisions today.

http://www.mediafire.com/file/zmzoxmzymcy/Oilsands job projections_AB.pdf

Regards,

Greg.

Thank you for your additional insights and the slide on projected job growth for the oilsands, Greg.

keith
 
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