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April 2014 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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Housing market to stay strong through 2015





Home sales should go up this spring, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The sales should be further supported over the second half of 2014 by a pick-up in Canadian economic growth.





National resale housing activity started 2014 at lower levels compared to previous years. It's partly payback for stronger levels of activity recorded last summer and fall when buyers with pre-approved mortgage financing advanced home purchases before their lower pre-approved rates expired. It also likely reflects the deferral of some activity due to what has been an exceptionally tough winter in many parts of the country.





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Existing home sales top forecasts as spring selling season begins





The number of existing homes that changed hands in Canada last month was 4.9 percent higher than the prior March, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.





Home sales were up 1 percent from February of this year on a seasonally-adjusted basis. That's the second monthly increase in a row after five consecutive months in which sales came in lower than the month before.





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Housing market off to a sluggish start as spring selling season begins





The housing market is crawling out of its winter slump, but it isn`t showing the energy that it normally does as spring kicks off.





The number of existing homes that changed hands last month over the Multiple Listing Service was 4.9 per cent higher than a year ago, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.





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Bank of Canada monetary policy decision





The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate steady Wednesday, and kept its `neutral` stance on future moves in an as-expected policy statement that had the market, if not economists, stifling yawns.





`When in doubt, do nothing, and for the most part, that`s what the Bank of Canada opted to do in today`s monetary policy statement,` said CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld.





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Stephen Poloz says rate cut not off the table





OTTAWA ` Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says he has not ruled out a future cut to interest rates despite his belief that the global and Canadian recoveries are picking up steam and that disinflationary pressures appear to be waning.





The head of Canada`s central bank made the comment after it decided to keep the trendsetting overnight rate at 1% for the 29th time in a row since September 2010





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Economic impact of Canada's housing slowdown will be felt broadly





TORONTO ` Scotiabank says Canada`s housing market is in the process of transitioning to slower growth and will remain on a `subdued trajectory` over the next several years, imposing a modest drag on output growth as the effects make their way through the broader economy.





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Canadian economic growth to accelerate





The Canadian economy, like its housing market, continues to surprise doubters, and is expected to grow between 2% and 2.3% this year, says Russell Investments in its second quarter economic update.





"While the Canadian economy is currently trending below our forecast level, growth should accelerate as the year progresses as a result of our lower Canadian dollar boosting exports and an improving U.S. economy," says Shailesh Kshatriya, associate director, client investment strategies at Russell Investments Canada. "However, we remain concerned about employment trends."





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Canadian home sales in March up 4.9% year over year





TORONTO ` The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold last month was up 4.9 per cent compared with the same month last year, but remained below the 10-year average.





The industry association also says sales in March were up 1.0 per cent compared with February, but below a recent peak set last August.





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Do condos need a home inspection





Many real estate boards and organizations are predicting that 2014 will be a strong year for real estate in Canada, especially in the Greater Toronto Area. This assessment is not exclusive to low-rise properties, as sales of residential homes were not the only real estate sector to see growth in the latter part of 2013. According to the Toronto Star, `Almost 4,300 new condos sold in the fourth quarter of 2013, the best quarter in one and a half years.`* This upward trend is expected to continue, with the spike in condo sales `coupled with growing signs of consumer confidence, has developers gearing up for the launch of new projects, largely concentrated in the sought-after downtown core, close to transit lines.`*





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Some Canadian provinces beating out majority of US states for Venture Capital





New data reveals that three Canadian provinces are drawing more venture capital funding than the vast majority of US states.





California`home of Silicon Valley`grabbed more than $15 billion in funding in 2013, good enough for 47% of the North American VC market share. Sound staggering? That amount is actually down 50% from 2012, according to Canada's Venture Capital & Private Equity Association (all values expressed in Canadian dollars).





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Has temporary foreign workers program boosted joblessness?






OTTAWA`A report by the C.D. Howe Institute is harshly critical of the federal government`s controversial temporary foreign workers program, saying it has spurred a higher unemployment rate in western Canada.







The study says changes to the program made between 2002 and 2013 made it easier for employers to hire temporary foreign workers and consequently contributed to a hike in the joblessness rate in Alberta and B.C.





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For Canadian manufacturers, confidence is building on back of U.S. recovery





OTTAWA ` When Don Henry travels to the United States on business these days he`s seeing more and more signs of seismic shifts in the world`s biggest economy.





`I think it is finally on the road to recovery,` says the chief operating officer at Morris Industries Ltd., a Saskatoon-based farm equipment maker.





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Real estate outlook lifts consumer confidence






OTTAWA ` Canadian consumer confidence surged to the highest in more than three years amid rising optimism over the outlook for real estate and the economy.







The Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index climbed to 60.0 in the week ended April 18 from 59.0 the previous period, the highest level since March 2011. Declines in measures of job security and personal finances tempered the gain.





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Canada poised for export boom





OTTAWA - A new forecast from the federal export agency predicts Canada's economy is on the threshold of stronger growth thanks to a long-awaited recovery in the export sector.





Export Development Canada says renewed strength in the United States and in emerging markets, along with a lower loonie, will trigger a rebound in the lagging export sector, particularly in automobiles, building materials and appliances.





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Canada, U.S. housing markets defy expectations





The gap between the average price of a home in Canada and the United States widened to a record level in the first quarter of this year, contrary to what economists would have expected, according to Bank of Montreal`s chief economist Doug Porter.





Average Canadian home prices were 66 percent above average U.S. prices during the first three months of this year, he says. (Note: these are prices for existing houses and condos, not those that are newly constructed).





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Canadians can bank on low interest rates for years to come





OTTAWA - Canadians can expect to enjoy relatively cheap borrowing costs for some time to come ` perhaps years ` even after the economy returns to full capacity and the Bank of Canada starts hiking interest rates, bank governor Stephen Poloz said Thursday.





The central banker told a luncheon in Saskatoon that the economy has room to grow before it can be considered to be firing on all cylinders, but even when it does ` likely sometime in early 2016 ` Canadians shouldn't expect a sudden increase in interest rates to fight inflation.





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Low economic volatility bodes well for the Canadian real estate market





Nancy Anderson, vice president of financial reporting and chief financial officer with the Real Property Association of Canada (REALpac), joined REIT.com for a video interview during REITWise 2014: NAREIT`s Law, Accounting and Finance Conference held in Boca Raton, Fla.






Anderson discussed the current overall health of the commercial real estate market in Canada.





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Canada's newest home price index hits the market





There`s a new home price index on the market.





Brookfield RPS, a subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management Inc., has quietly soft-launched its own Canadian home price index. It will go head-to-head with the country`s two main price indices, one by the Canadian Real Estate Association and another by Teranet in partnership with National Bank.





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Debating on fixed vs. variable? Focus on your needs, not interest rates





Historically, homeowners have fared better with variable-rate products, from an interest rate perspective, compared to a five-year fixed-rate term. However, variable rate mortgages aren`t right for everyone, and while even experts can`t predict future interest rates, fixed rates have rarely been lower than they are today.





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Expertise essential in shifting mortgage market





Last year, mortgage brokers processed 28 per cent of all mortgage transactions in Canada, an increase from 25 per cent in 2012. Among first-time buyers who want to shop the market, the self-employed and new Canadians, even more used the services of a mortgage broker. The overall increase in mortgage broker transactions was due largely to a 40 per cent share of all new mortgages in 2013.





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