Both ready for the taking now. Time to buy. Prices have come off a bit and if you look at recent sales comps they are selling below assessed value (not a perfect measure, but a good indication). Those who bought in the high are at the end of their financing term and the property equity is less than 20%, no choice but to sell. There is upside now.
Don't expect a hockey stick, but hitting 10-12% with PPD is achievable now. If you have some ability to reposition an asset, there is more upside as renter profile is strong, delaying purchase, and wanting to live in urbanizing, densifying locations.
Be cautious of old product in B and C locations. Under major threat, especially in Calgary with lots of rental coming down the pipeline. It will be hard to complete and the tenant profile is going to slide.
Considering the time I spend in FMM I can tell you that the prices came down but they are still high in relationship to Edmonton or Calgary. Several families are currently hostage of their mortgages hence they can’t sell nor leave. Several “dropped the keys” at the banks and ran away. (Believe or not in 2010 mobile homes were selling for 500K - 600K)
The construction phase (Albion, Suncor, Total, Kearl and Fort Hills) is finished and that’s what increased the local population and wages.
Now (and the foreseeable future) is just daily operations and causal planned maintenance which requires 30%- 40% of the initial work force.
The golden days are over regardless the oil price so real estate prices (and wages) will continue to declining over time.
I wouldn’t recommend investing there. If I am wrong investors may become rich in the next 10 years (or completely broke i am right)