Calgary Single Home Projections over course of 3 Years

[Charly]

Hi Folks:

I know that you dont have a crystal ball, but I know you guys are well informed. I need to do some planning, and as it turns out, I will be needing to sell my property in the next 3 years in Calgary. (Circumstances beyond my control).

It is a single family, 1.5 story house, single garage, inner city. (Character home, 1300 sq foot - extremely well maintained!) I am needing to do some rough estimates and I was wondering what the forecast is for Calgary over the next 3 years.

Any ideas?

Just need to figure out something.

Thanks greatly

 

[DaveRhydderch]

Appreciation with respect to house prices? What neighbourhood is it in? Inner city in Calgary comprises a lot of area these days....

 

[RedlineBrett]

QUOTE (Charly @ Jul 20 2010, 08:21 AM) Any ideas?

Just need to figure out something.

Thanks greatly

It will be around 5%/yr. But that is a general market average. Small single family inner city homes are desireable products so if you don`t have too many issues you shouldn`t have a problem selling.

In terms of where you end up price wise and when the best time to list is that will depend on a lot of factors.

For some general information check out our seller roadmap

http://www.redlinerealestate.ca/index.php?...mp;section=sell

The big thing for you to keep in mind is that the city as a whole might do 5%, but your specific local market might be capable of -5% to 10%+ depending on how many listings there are and how many sales there have been within your area. Talk to your realtor and get him/her to set you up for a search which updates you with market activity. You`ll get a lot more informed and can watch comparable sales come and go... listings expire, new actives that sort of thing.

 

[gwasser]

QUOTE (RedlineBrett @ Jul 20 2010, 01:59 PM) It will be around 5%/yr. But that is a general market average. Small single family inner city homes are and go... listings expire, new actives that sort of thing.


Three years is a long time span. I would not consider that a `forced` sale. Overall, real estate markets in Calgary tend to appreciate and I would suspect the chance is good that we will be better off.

At the same time you can make a case based on demographics that foresees increased savings rate and a society tending to reduce leverage. This may result in deflation, low appreciation in both real estate and the stock market. Maybe recreational properties will become popular again with aging babyboomers and oversized family homes will bite the dust.

Really, you have to build your own set of economic scenarios, choose the one you think is most likely and protect yourself against the least favorable scenarios. We call that risk management.

In regard of selling a property, it should depend on whether it is a good investment or a dog. Does it cash flow positively? Do you have a need for it other than as an investment? Can you make more money elsewhere?

 

[Charly]

QUOTE (DaveRhydderch @ Jul 20 2010, 01:44 PM) Appreciation with respect to house prices? What neighbourhood is it in? Inner city in Calgary comprises a lot of area these days....


Neighbourhood: Killarney, close to many bus stops, close to public swimming pool. excellent location. 15 minutes from down town. Solid home with new roof, furnace, HW tank, sewer line and upgraded plumbing. 1947 character home. Professionally landscaped.

Home renovated with marble countertops, maple cabinets, extended backroom with fire. I would not personally rent it, nor do I want to rent it. Just need to sell in three years. Wanted to know if there was an estimate in prices rising for example 5% per year.

 

[gwasser]

QUOTE (Charly @ Jul 21 2010, 01:54 PM) Neighbourhood: Killarney, close to many bus stops, close to public swimming pool. excellent location. 15 minutes from down town. Solid home with new roof, furnace, HW tank, sewer line and upgraded plumbing. 1947 character home. Professionally landscaped.

Home renovated with marble countertops, maple cabinets, extended backroom with fire. I would not personally rent it, nor do I want to rent it. Just need to sell in three years. Wanted to know if there was an estimate in prices rising for example 5% per year.

You`re just beating around the bush. Why don`t you ask a realtor to do a CMA for you. If you like the price sell; if not don`t sell. Trying to speculate on appreciation with a potential forced sale is not smart.

 

[bizaro86]

I`d consider your downside. What will happen to you in 3 years if you are not able to sell the property for a price that works for you? Would the consequences be foreclosure, bankruptcy, and an overload of stress leading to the worsening of a congenital heart defect? If so, probably wise to sell sooner rather than later.

If the consequences of not being able to sell are more like delaying a planned retirement move for 6 months, forcing you to endure one last winter in Calgary with family and friends before moving to sunnier climes, you can probably afford to wait.

You`re asking about the potential upside to holding for 3 more years, but make sure you consider what you`re risking as well. If the potential reward outweighs the potential risk, then hold onto it.

Michael

 

[Charly]

QUOTE (gwasser @ Jul 21 2010, 02:05 PM) You`re just beating around the bush. Why don`t you ask a realtor to do a CMA for you. If you like the price sell; if not don`t sell. Trying to speculate on appreciation with a potential forced sale is not smart.


Not sure what you mean just beating around the bush. I already have a realtor estimate as of last week. Circumstances now dictate I leave in 3 years - that is all. I am not a speculator and would not do a forced sale. I only wanted a simple idea of forcast and I know REIN members know the Calgary market well.

Thanks though, your information is very helpful.

 

[gwasser]

QUOTE (Charly @ Jul 21 2010, 03:35 PM) Not sure what you mean just beating around the bush. I already have a realtor estimate as of last week. Circumstances now dictate I leave in 3 years - that is all. I am not a speculator and would not do a forced sale. I only wanted a simple idea of forcast and I know REIN members know the Calgary market well.

Thanks though, your information is very helpful.

What I mean by `beating around the bush` is that it seems you can not make up your mind. "Should I buy or sell?" Yeah but... if I wait three years I could make more!" This is procrastination or worse, indecisiveness and may lead to losses and a truly forced sale. If you are afraid of having that money not earning anything for the next 3 years look for alternative more liquid investment after you sell.

On average, the Calgary real estate market appreciates 6-8% per year. We`re coming out of a recession, slowly though, so conservatively you could guestimate that your property appreciates 3 to 5% per annum. Whether this will really happen, nobody knows for sure. So really, your guess on this is as good as mine.

I hope this clarifies the situation.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (gwasser @ Jul 21 2010, 06:19 PM)
..

On average, the Calgary real estate market appreciates 6-8% per year. We're coming out of a recession, slowly though, so conservatively you could guestimate that your property appreciates 3 to 5% per annum. ..




I concur with this view !!



over 50 years it was actually 5.9% on average .. See a 50 Year house price view here: http://myreinspace.com/rein_members_only1/Members-Only_Discussion/81-6621-50_Year_Calgary_House_Price_View.html