QUOTE (Yev @ Dec 29 2009, 12:29 AM) Since these are harmless predictions...
Oil goes to 120 (sooner than Thomas expects) - this causes US (and World) economy to stall again with significant drops in the stock markets, possibly re-testing the March 2009 lows.
In Real Estate - the spread between buyers and sellers expectations continues to remain high. Sellers feeling that they should get more for their properties than buyers are willing to pay. Who cracks? I`m betting that the sellers `crack` and the real estate prices continue on a gradual down slope.
I don`t expect that the Canadian Real Estate market escapes this global real estate downturn with the minimal pain that has happened so far. So, overpriced markets - Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto will take a larger hit, but everyone will be affected.
And now to REALLY go out on a limb... Windsor rental market improves with dropping vacancy rates and increasing demand for property (no, I don`t own a US or Canadian made car...)
Yevgeni
I`ll mostly predict my local conditions which I think I know best. The implementation of the HST here in Ontario coupled with rising interest rates will be felt in many ways.
Oil I don`t know much about but the strong loonie will hamper a manufacturing recovery here in Ontario. This will be tempered by the HST which is a handout for this industry.
In real estate, sellers, will take a hit unless they own a desirable residential property in one of Toronto`s sought after neighborhoods. These still trigger bidding wars. The new "%10 rule" will also greatly reduce the pool of first time buyers and also force down prices especially in markets like mine where things are not too upbeat already.
The flip side will be good for landlords with vacancies. As an LL with properties though for the first time in about 3 years I will see an improvement in the quality in perspective tenants. With low interest rates and low down payments already affordable SFH`s down here were depriving LL`s of good tenants, ie: with jobs, while operating costs costs rose. The clearly anti LL regulatory environment hasn`t helped either.
A ,lot of LL`s have been washed out of the business. With prices still low in the last few years around here a lot of first time LL`s bought high with %5 or less down then found the quantity and quality of tenants so lacking that they couldn`t meet expenses and had to sell. This was especially the case from Q3 2008 to Q2 around here. Vacancies have peaked at about %4 (offically) but will decline thanks to tighter bank lending and a crackdown on illegal rentals here in te last few months.
Not much for sale in the MF market now as LL`s still standing wait it out. Investors with cash to spend will definitely be able to get some good deals here in Niagara on SFH`s. The banks will often be the ones desperate to sell.
For the first time in years the future looks good in St. Catharines. Downtown is being gentrified by a new arts / theater center in the works and a new hospital is being built. We`re also getting government money for infrastructure which for decades has eluded us.
Beyond 2010 once Ontario gets rid of it`s current government there will be a much improved business climate in general and for LL`s in particular.