Edmonton home prices over the years - starting 1962

ThomasBeyer

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#2
Historic prices are always interesting, but of course we invest today looking forward. Assume a flat line - at best - with an NDP government and oil sub $50 for a few years in Alberta.

Personally I believe prices & rents will decline up to 10% in Alberta - some areas more and some areas less - if oil stays below $50 for a prolonged period, if pipelines are stalled and if NDP takes ever more $s out of your jeans in the form of taxes, fees and higher energy prices to fund unions, civil servants, hospitals, roads and "the environment".
 

PeterM

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Jan 7, 2008
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#3
For long time scales, I much prefer log scale graphs since a constant rate of increase (e.g. an inflation rate) would be a straight line rather than a curve. I've attached a rough graph that I sometimes use (based on average prices from the Edmonton Real Estate board).
-Peter
edmonton_prices.jpg
 

Matt Crowley

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#4
Historic prices are always interesting, but of course we invest today looking forward. Assume a flat line - at best - with an NDP government and oil sub $50 for a few years in Alberta.

Personally I believe prices & rents will decline up to 10% in Alberta - some areas more and some areas less - if oil stays below $50 for a prolonged period, if pipelines are stalled and if NDP takes ever more $s out of your jeans in the form of taxes, fees and higher energy prices to fund unions, civil servants, hospitals, roads and "the environment".
This is exactly what I've been seeing too Thomas. We have been doing some fairly extensive analysis on the oil vs. rent argument in Alberta as my employer has a little over 6,000 units. Rents are going to fall and they already have started falling.

In Edmonton, we have 1,600 purpose-built apartment units under construction in the downtown area. Downtown Edmonton population is in the 20,000 range. So...huge, huge growth in rental stock. It isn't going to kill the rental market because of such a long draught for new rental product in the city and desire for downtown but it is going to demand a higher quality product from competitors who have, perhaps, better locations but dated buildings.

Surely, we are under a construction boom in Alberta right now. Both in commercial and residential areas (check out this map of rumored, potential, probable, and under construction projects: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zDXF4h19vSSA.kgFjl5EZL59g).

CHBA is going to publish their annual Alberta Housing Starts survey tomorrow which is going to say that its members anticipate a 25% decrease YOY in SFH starts in 2015 and 15% decrease in multi-family starts. For 2016, the survey expects a further 7.3% drop in SFH and 16% drop in multi-family starts.

Home prices in Edmonton are likely to fall a bit (not off a cliff or anything) but rents are almost surely going to drop. Construction prices may begin to fall late 2016 for commercial but there is still so much on the books that a lot of larger companies are still busy with prior approved projects gone to tender.
 

DonCampbell

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Aug 22, 2007
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#5
Surely, we are under a construction boom in Alberta right now. Both in commercial and residential areas (check out this map of rumored, potential, probable, and under construction projects: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zDXF4h19vSSA.kgFjl5EZL59g).
This map is a great share, thank you.

There will be a demand for the older stock in the rental market, but only if they are well maintained and clean. Sadly, many of them have not been kept up, and those will be the buildings that will be a problem.

D
 

PeterM

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Jan 7, 2008
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#6
Someone asked me to post an update to my long term Edmonton residential price graph, so here it is.
2018_06 Edm price graph.jpg

The data is from the realtors of Edmonton web site (www.ereb.com). The prices are average sale prices for all residential real estate and all the usual issues with averages apply (e.g. median prices would probably be better, etc.). The way the average is calculated has probably also changed a few times over the years.

Basically not much change in sale prices since the last update. The overall story is the same: massive price increase around 2006 and more-or-less flat since then. I've owned townhouses in Edmonton since 2008 so it hasn't been a massive success for me (yet). But if historical trends are to continue (i.e. inflation still exists and the city continues to grow) then for long-term investors now seems like a decent time to buy/own. This is just looking at residential resale prices and there are lots of other factors to consider. Of course, I have no idea what resale prices will do in the next couple of years (and neither does anyone else).
 

bb2

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Sep 10, 2007
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#7
For long time scales, I much prefer log scale graphs since a constant rate of increase (e.g. an inflation rate) would be a straight line rather than a curve. I've attached a rough graph that I sometimes use (based on average prices from the Edmonton Real Estate board).
-Peter
View attachment 118
This is an excellent graph to show exactly what the market has done over the last 40 years or so. For anyone just starting consider the importance of:
- long term vision (it’s not get rich quick)
- the market has steadily gone up over the last 40 years
- we have recovered from dips


Sent from my iPad using myREINspace
 

David8043

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Feb 29, 2016
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#8
In 1962 my parents bought a typical 10 year old home on the south side in Edmonton. They paid $12,000 which was fair market value at that time. Now, the same home is 65 years old, is still standing, and similar homes average about $375,000. This approximately matches your graph. If you do the calculation, there is an average annual gain of about 5.9% Of course it was far higher in boom years, and flat during slow times, but over several boom/bust cycles, and over a 55 year time span, the capital appreciation averages almost 6% per year.
 
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