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February 2010

Ally

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New articles for February 2010.
 

Ally

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How Governments drive sky-high house prices

"Governments at all levels have conspired to drive up housing costs through taxes, fees, levies and restrictive land use policies," says my colleague Harvey Enchin in a Vancouver Sun column on how government`s contribute greatly to the astronomical cost of homes in the city.

His prescription goes farther into the realm of land-use policies than I have delved, and not quite so far on taxes. In recognition of what he thinks is practical, for example, he suggests dropping the property transfer tax on new homes; I think we`re long overdue for having it done away with altogether. But he adds an interesting perspective to the discussion, not to mention some fascinating analysis of just how far out of line the city`s housing prices have become. You can read what he has to say by clicking here.

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Whistler Real Estate, and trying to gauge the `Olympic Effect`

VANCOUVER — Let the sales pitch begin.

With the 2010 Olympics at Vancouver and Whistler`s doorstep, one local real estate insider has crunched a decade`s-worth of Whistler sales results to make the case that the 2010 Olympics have given the resort`s real estate a boost, and that — despite the recent global recession — property there is still a good investment.

"I still think there will be a good positive side to the Whistler story," Rudy Nielsen, president of research firm Landcor Data Corp., said in an interview.

Nielsen chronicles a doubling of Whistler`s property values and widening sphere of international buyers there over the last decade to support his case.

Others are skeptical that the massive free-advertising campaign of the Olympics is having more of an effect on Whistler real estate than the improvement of transportation infrastructure on the Sea to Sky corridor, but Nielsen believes the exposure has to count for something.

"I think people will realize that this is a world-class place to be, and not only Whistler but Vancouver and British Columbia," he said.

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B.C. Real Estate 2009 bounce-back to taper off this year, 2011

VANCOUVER — The mortgage-rate fuelled bounce-back of British Columbia real estate in 2009 has probably used up most of the market`s growth for 2010 and 2011, according to a new estimate from the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Association chief economist Cameron Muir is forecasting provincewide sales in 2010 to increase only three per cent above a hot 2009`s results to 90,100 sales in 2010, then slip back three per cent to 87,500 units in 2011.

The provincial average price, Muir is forecasting, will advance five per cent to $490,900 in 2010 then eke out just one-per-cent growth to $494,800 in 2011.

Muir characterized his forecast as 2009 ending with a "gold-medal finish, [which] will give way to a silver-medal performance in 2010."

"Affordability is the biggest factor over the longer term," Muir added in an interview, "because home prices in markets such as Victoria and Vancouver are trending on record levels, and mortgage rates are likely to edge higher at the end of this year and through 2011."

"That`s going to increase the carrying cost of housing, and by extension, overall housing demand."

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Chinese buy a stake in Vancouver Island pulp mill

VANCOUVER — China`s largest producer of rayon fibre has bought an ownership position in a northern Vancouver Island pulp mill, providing it with needed capital and assured access to the Chinese market.

Port Alice`s Neucel Specialty Cellulose announced Friday that it has entered into a deal with Zhejian Fulida Ltd. that will inject new capital and ownership into the northern Vancouver Island pulp mill. Part of the deal includes a long-term supply agreement.

"Fulida is a new part owner. Our ownership base has changed," said Jim Herculson, Neucel vice-president of finance. "It`s also an infusion of capital. We are not going to use it for working capital. It`s going to be used entirely to enhance the business."

Neucel is a northern Vancouver Island success story in the otherwise gloomy coastal forest sector, not only surviving the market downturn that has battered the coast`s logging and pulp and paper companies, but emerging as a profitable company. It is owned by a consortium of investors led by two U.S. financiers, Wellspring Capital Management and the Granite Street Capital Group.

Herculson would not reveal the amount of the Fulida capital injection but said it is significant, far more than the $6.5 million the company received through the federal government`s recent Green Transformation program.

Jainer Qi, chief executive officer of Fulida, said in a news release that the investment provides Fulida with a smooth and stable supply of dissolving pulp, the specialty product made at Port Alice.

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Vancouver real estate prices hit January peak while regional sales pace levels off

VANCOUVER — Metro Vancouver house prices reached a new peak level in January while the overall pace of sales across the Lower Mainland eased off the torrid pace seen in December, according to reports from the region`s real estate boards.

In Metro Vancouver, the benchmark price for a single-family home, the average price for typical homes sold, hit $788,499, some 20 per cent above January a year ago, when prices were still falling during the economic downturn, and two per cent above the previous peak of $771,250 in May of 2008.

That new high, however, was driven mostly by the sales of higher-priced properties in specific municipalities, Robyn Adamache, a market analyst for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said in an interview.

"Mostly, the areas above [the peak] are the west side of Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond and the Tri Cities," Adamache said.

In the rest of Metro Vancouver within the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver`s territory, house prices are still below their previous peaks.

While the bounce-back has been rapid, Tsur Somerville, a real estate expert at the University of British Columbia, said the new highs are less concerning given that mortgage rates remain at near record lows.

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Fraser Valley real estate market `returned to balance`

VANCOUVER — Fraser Valley real estate markets mirrored the Metro Vancouver experienced in January with a more relaxed pace of sales with rising levels of new listings to bring more market balance to the picture.

The region`s realtors recorded 981 sales through the Multiple Listing Service in January, off 22 per cent from December, but still more than double the number of sales from the same month a year ago when markets across the Lower Mainland had nearly ground to a halt.

"Compared to last January, the market has returned to balance," board president Paul Penner said in a news release. "Consumers continue to take advantage of the affordability created by lower interest rates."

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The Impact of Illegal Drug Operations on Housing

Please download the pdf below for information on the impact of drug operations on housing. Provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.
 

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Citiy`s smallest rental suites expected to average $750 a month

Images of the city`s smallest rental suites were unveiled Monday at a media event held in Vancouver`s Downtown Eastside.

Located in the century-old Burns Block building at 18 West Hastings St., the 270-square-foot so-called "micro-lofts" are expected to fetch an average of $750 a month, and, according to a company press release, attract "students, people in transition and those looking to work and live in the heart of the downtown area."

The units drew praise from Vancouver City Councillor Raymond Louie, who was among those on hand when artist renderings of the suites were made public for the first time.

Louie called the suites "well-designed," noting the efficient use of light and space.

"Although they are small, they are quite functional," he said.

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Grow-Ops: It`s time for a one-stop B.C. registry

As British Columbia approaches the one-year anniversary of its licensing of home inspectors, it`s a good idea to address one significant area of home inspection that can fall between the cracks of the province`s newly regulated home inspection industry: grow-ops.

Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor-General Kash Heed, in a letter to the editor in the Jan. 15 edition of The Vancouver Sun about a consumer who had unknowingly purchased a house that had been used as a grow-op, said, "The changes we made have helped to make sure inspectors are qualified, but buyers still have a responsibility to do their homework to make sure the homes they are interested in are a good investment ... a home inspection is designed to alert them of potential issues, but is not a guarantee."

Home inspectors are used when consumers are considering buying a home and want to make an informed decision.

The home inspection itself is a comprehensive visual examination of the home`s overall structure, major systems, components and property conditions. The idea is to minimize the risk because no one wants to face serious unexpected costs.

Probably the most devastating unexpected cost after a purchase would arise from a discovery that the house was once a grow-op or drug lab. The consequences of such a discovery -- massive remediation and its attendant financial, emotional and health devastation -- would be every homebuyer`s nightmare.

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December push pulls 2009 out of historic house start hole

Phew, that was close! Were it not for a surge in housing starts in December, 2009 would have been remembered, or forgotten, as the worst year for starts in the Lower Mainland since 1962.

Now, if you remember the 1960s (frankly, if you do, you likely weren`t participating in them) 1962 was memorable because that was the year Johnny Carson debuted on The Tonight Show, Nelson Mandela was jailed, the Cuban Missile Crisis was headline news, and Telestar, the world`s first active communications satellite, was launched. The point is, 1962 was a very, very long time ago.

Fast forward to December. A total of 875 starts -- both detached and attached homes --were needed last month to surpass the 2000 total of 8,203, thereby avoiding that dreaded worst-since-`62 label. Honestly, I figured the chances of reaching 875 were slim. After all, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., only 793 starts were recorded in November, and December is somewhat of a wind-down month, what with the seasonal holidays and all.

Surprisingly, 1,010 starts were recorded in December, bringing the year-end total to 8,339. A statistical bullet might have been dodged, but no one is celebrating. The starts total lagged 11,252 behind the homes started in 2008. That means production and installation of kitchens, bathrooms, flooring, electrical, lumber, roofing, concrete, windows, doors, etc. were also greatly curtailed.

Each housing start creates nearly three person-years of employment, a fancy term for three full-time direct and indirect jobs for one year. Homebuilding is a huge economic generator for communities.

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Vancouver retains top spot in most liveable cities survey

Vancouver has again topped a list of the top 10 most liveable cities in the world, giving the Canadian west coast city an extra boost as it opens the 2010 Winter Olympics.

In the annual survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit, Vancouver scored 98 percent on a combination of stability, health care, culture and environment, education, and infrastructure -- a score unchanged from last year.

The city has also topped the index since at least 2007.

In the 2010 ranking, there was little change in the top positions with Vienna, Melbourne and Toronto still taking the second, third and fourth positions and the top 10 dominated by Canadian and Australian cities which took seven of the 10 slots.

Johannesburg, which is hosting the soccer World Cup finals in June, came in 92nd place, the highest score in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Real Estate sales ease in B.C.

Real estate sales in January eased off the frenetic pace markets saw in December across British Columbia, the B.C. Real Estate Association reported Thursday.

While the overall provincial market in January represented a sea change from the doldrums of early 2009, demand appears to be lessening.

"We saw a dramatic rebound in sales since last January, and that pace of sales that we saw in December, and during the last quarter, was unlikely to be sustained through 2010," Cameron Muir, the association`s chief economist said in an interview.

January`s sales, recorded through the Multiple Listing Service, hit 4,619 units, some 118-per-cent more than the same month a year ago, but down about 16 per cent from December.

That slowing from December`s hectic pace, Muir said, happened because many home hunters have bought, which lessens the "pent up demand." Other potential buyers, however, have been squeezed out by the rebound in home prices, which have begun to again approach pre-downturn highs.

With sales still elevated, the provincial average

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Shuttered mills won`t start up soon, Canfor chief says

Canfor Corp.`s four shuttered Interior sawmills won`t starting up soon despite higher U.S. lumber prices and growing demand for B.C. wood in China, company president Jim Shepard said Thursday.

There`s still too much volatility in the lumber market and he doesn`t expect the current bloom in the U.S. to last long, Shepard said in a conference call Thursday with financial analysts.

"It appears that the unemployment in the United States isn`t going to tumble any time soon and will likely persist around 10 per cent. We must also be mindful of the looming number of homes in foreclosure, which tend to dampen recovery of U.S. housing starts," he said.

Shepard said enough capacity has been taken out of the North American market that supply is now meeting the limited demand from the U.S. housing industry. Lumber prices are now hovering at $290 US a thousand board feet, a rise of $82 from a year ago.

"We are not going to be in a rush to start up a mill because the market has spiked as it has right now," Shepard said. "We would have to have to see sustainable recovery in the markets before we would entertain any starting up of any of our operations. I think that would be true of anybody else in the industry because the volatility of this market is really a dangerous place to be when you start to talk about adding capacity."

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Easier MLS access could negate mortgage-rule changes: Report

OTTAWA — Easier access to the Multiple Listing Service could negate the impact of mortgage-rule changes currently under debate to cool the country`s overheated housing market, Scotia Economics said in a research note Thursday.

"Indeed, the potential is there for home buying conditions to actually become easier over the next one to two years via sharply lower average commission rates that are more in keeping with choices south of the border," said the note, written by economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes.

Holt and Cordes argue that the savings from reduced real-estate commissions could be substantial, and could make up a large part of the difference on a down payment if it is changed from a five per cent minimum to a 10 per cent minimum.

For example, a typical five per cent commission paid against the average resale price of $345,000 would result in a commission of $17,250. The same home sold at rates offered by the still-tiny discount-broker segment would result in a commission of $1,500, a difference of $15,750.

"Thus, through the interplay between potential shifts in mortgage rules and the Competition Bureau`s challenge, Ottawa is likely to at worst leave buying incentives on neutral terms, or could even instead drive even more stimulative terms, given a low probability of changes to mortgages rules.

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B.C. Home Sales remain high, less frenetic

Real estate sales in January eased off the frenetic pace markets saw in December across British Columbia, the B.C. Real Estate Association reported Thursday.

While overall provincial market in January represented a sea change from the doldrums of early 2009, buyers seem to be coming sated.

"We saw a dramatic rebound in sales since last January, and that pace of sales that we saw in December, and during the last quarter, was unlikely to be sustained through 2010," Cameron Muir, the association`s chief economist said in an interview.

January`s sales, recorded through the Multiple Listing Service, hit 4,619 units, some 118 per cent more than the same month a year ago, but down about 16 per cent from December.

That slowing from December`s hectic pace, Muir said, happened because many home hunters have bought, which lessens the "pent up demand." Other potential buyers, however, have been squeezed out by the rebound in home prices, which have begun to again approach pre-downturn highs.

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Forestry faces two more years of pain

One of the country`s leading investment firms is telling its timberlands investors to hang on for almost two more years of depressed prices while the U.S. housing market struggles to come back into balance.

Further, the Canadian forest industry is least able to weather a housing market that sputters during 2010 and 2011, Brookfield Timberlands Management says in its third quarter research report.

The report says there will be "significant down-sizing of the Canadian industry." Investments in timberlands, rather than mills, remain fundamentally strong and offer opportunities, but the report concludes that the current market "is not for the faint of heart."

Brookfield bases its two-more-years-of-pain forecast on what it calls a "glut" of homes either in foreclosure or facing foreclosure in the U.S., a growing crisis that threatens to undermine any housing recovery this year.

The Brookfield analysis, by Reid Carter, managing partner of Brookfield Timberlands Management LP., is one of the first research reports on the forest industry of 2010. Prepared for Brookfield`s own investors, it flies against views held by most analysts as recently as last December.

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Victoria unveils three clean-energy deals

The provincial government opened a bundle of clean energy announcements on Monday in a bid to brand British Columbia as a global hub for green business investment and research.

Premier Gordon Campbell and Energy Minister Blair Lekstrom introduced three deals, all involving British Columbia companies and international partners, and gave their strongest indication yet that the Clean Energy Act announced in last week`s throne speech will fundamentally change the energy development landscape.

"B. C. is home to 1,000 clean-tech and environmental companies. This is the third-largest clean energy and research-development hub in the world," Campbell said during a 90-minute "Clean Energy Day" kickoff at the B.C. media centre on Robson Street downtown.

Campbell said the Clean Energy Act, which will be introduced in the current sitting of the legislature, will "minimize risk" for companies seeking to develop new sources of electricity and "simplify procurement protocols and new measures to encourage investment."

"If we don`t find new ways to deliver clean energy, I can tell you we are not delivering the world our young British Columbians -- our children and grandchildren -- deserve."

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Bark Beetles flee their own calls

The pine beetle is so tough that not even chainsaws, fire and icy cold have stopped its destructive march across North American forests.

But new research suggests there is a new weapon that could halt the tiny insect in its tracks -- the sound of its own voice.

Researchers at the Northern Arizona University believe they have found a silver bullet by digitally altering the sound of the bark beetles` squeaky, clicking calls. The sound drives them so buggy they flee or attack each other.

"We want to try to have them escape or be deterred from a log and we`ve been able to successfully do that in a laboratory," lead researcher Richard Hofstetter said Tuesday.

"We`ve also been able to witness them be very aggressive and chewing each other.

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B.C. to be No. 1 province in Canadian economic growth: Conference Board

OTTAWA — Olympic spinoffs and an improved outlook for forestry and manufacturing will make British Columbia the leader in economic growth among Canadian provinces in 2010, says the Conference Board of Canada.

B.C. will post growth of 3.7 per cent over the year, while renewed American auto demand will help Ontario surpass the national average for the first time in nearly a decade with growth of 3.5 per cent, the board said in its Provincial Outlook — Winter 2010, released Monday.

B.C. will also benefit from an estimated $770-million boost to the economy from the Winter Olympic Games.

"The recovery in Central and Western Canada began to take shape in the last few months and will continue to do so through 2010. In fact, all provinces are expected to post positive economic growth this year," said Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director, provincial forecasting.

Government stimulus spending in the U.S. and Canada will be the main driver, before a recovery in the private sector begins to take hold in the latter part of 2010 and into 2011, the report forecasts.

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