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February 2013 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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How women are shaping the Canadian real estate market





What do women want in regards to the housing market? More often than not, a gargantuan walk-in closet and endless interior design possibilities would satisfy most women.







An article titled How single women- and what they want - are shaping the new housing market in The Globe and Mail outline this trend in more detail. What is particularly interesting to note is that on the whole, single women are expecting more features and amenities for their home and approximately one-third of all condo sales in Canadian cities have been made by women in their 20s.





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Jobs, homes, trade all suffer setback in dark day for Canadian economy



OTTAWA ` The Canadian economy was hit by a triple dose of bad news Friday as three major indicators ` jobs, exports and housing starts ` all tumbled in unison to cast doubt on an expected rebound in economic growth this winter and spring.





The data for December and January were all far worse than economists had anticipated, even though the expectations had been modest at best.





The headliner was a surprisingly large 21,900 job loss figure for January ` the first setback in six months ` and a 58,000 reduction in the number of Canadians looking for work, which produced the oddity of less employment coinciding with a drop in the unemployment rate to seven per cent.





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Housing starts plunge, revealing weaker than expected market




TORONTO ` Canadian housing starts plunged in January as both single and multiple starts fell, particularly in Ontario, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said on Friday in a report that showed the housing market was even weaker than expected.




The agency says there were 9,904 actual starts last month, compared with 13,038 in January 2012.





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Housing: The feared collapse has not occurred



Vancouver aside, Canada`s housing market appears to be pulling off a somewhat orderly retreat.





Indeed, says economist David Rosenberg, `what has really caught my eye is the housing data, as the feared collapse just has not occurred despite pockets of acute weakness in the Vancouver and Toronto condo markets.`





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Canada hit with surprise job loss




OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's economy unexpectedly shed jobs in January, while housing starts plunged, suggesting global uncertainty, weak prices for Canadian oil, and a government clampdown on the property market will drag on growth in early 2013.




A slew of weak data released on Friday quickly knocked the Canadian dollar below parity with the U.S. dollar. Adding to the gloom were figures showing Canada posted a record trade deficit in 2012.





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Nearly 22,000 jobs lost in January




(Reuters) ` Canada's economy unexpectedly shed 21,900 jobs in January but a drop in the number of people seeking work pushed the unemployment rate down to a four-year low of seven per cent, Statistics Canada data indicated on Friday.




Market analysts had forecast a gain of 5,000 positions and predicted the jobless rate would edge up to 7.2 per cent from the 7.1 per cent in December after strong job gains in three of the previous four months.





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Considerable slack in Canadian jobs market




Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney Tuesday described the slack in Canada`s labour market as `considerable,` reinforcing the widely held view that the central bank will keep interest rates low to stoke economic growth.




In testimony before the House of Commons Finance Committee in Ottawa, Mr. Carney took a nuanced view of Canada`s jobs performance, which has bested that of most major industrialized economies in the years following the financial crisis.



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Want a higher salary? Go West - to the oil and gas sector





Pipe fitters and plumbers in the oil and gas industry in Western Canada can expect higher salaries this year than retail and hospitality workers, says a new study.




The oil and gas sectors in Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to have the highest average salary increase at 4.5 per cent, up from 4.2 per cent last fall, the Conference Board of Canada said Tuesday.




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Mark Carney warns against manipulation Loonie, fuelling global currency war




Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is warning that the Canadian economy would be damaged by a global currency war and that it would do little good to join the manipulators in trying to boost exports.




The outgoing bank governor made the comments Tuesday to a Canadian parliamentary committee after he and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty signed a Group of Seven statement denouncing exchange rate manipulation.





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Early spring for homebuyers






TORONTO, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Feb. 13, 2013) -
The groundhog recently predicted an early spring, and so it is for homebuyers looking for advantageous mortgage rates this month. Despite increasing Government of Canada bond yields, a slowing housing market prompts lenders to take competitive measures to gain mortgage business, leading to no movement for fixed mortgage rates. Variable mortgage rates are also expected to remain unchanged this month, as the Bank of Canada did not introduce rate changes in the January 23rd announcement.





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January housing starts follow predicted trend for 2013





EMC News Housing starts in Canada were trending at 203,208 units in January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.







"The trend in total housing starts has been moderating since September 2012 and in existing home sales since May 2012. Trends in the two market segments typically follow a similar pattern with the new home market lagging behind the existing home market by a few months," said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC. "The current trend is also in line with CMHC's housing market outlook, which calls for moderation in housing starts activity in 2013."





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Strong performance in Canadian real estate continues





TORONTO, Feb. 13, 2013 /CNW/ ` Canadian commercial real estate delivered another strong performance in 2012, as measured by the REALpac / IPD Canada Annual Property Index.





The annual total return of 14.1% continued Canada`s strong performance. Real estate outperformed public equities (7.5%), bonds (3.0%) and inflation (0.8%). (Equities are based on the MSCI Canada Index. Bonds are based on the JP Morgan 7-10 Year Government Bond Index. Inflation is based on data from Statistics Canada).





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IMF sees Canada economy reviving



The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Canada's economic growth to begin picking up in the second half of 2013, amid elevated downside risks.





In its latest report on Canada, the IMF says it sees economic growth reviving later in 2013, amounting to 1.8% for the year, and accelerating to around 2.5% by 2014`2015.





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IMF says more intervention may be needed




OTTAWA ` Canadian housing prices were still about 10% overvalued at the end of 2012, the IMF said on Thursday, and it warned that authorities may have to intervene a fifth time in the mortgage market if personal debt levels rise further.




The International Monetary Fund, in its annual report on Canada, also said the country`s currency was between 5 and 15% higher than warranted by long-term economic fundamentals, lifted in part by commodity prices and the country`s safe-haven status for investors.





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January home sales down 5.2% from a year ago




Canadian home sales in January were 5.2 percent lower than the same month last year, but edged up 1.3 percent from December, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Friday.




House prices, meanwhile, continue to grow but at a slower pace, with the MLS Home Price Index rising 3.1 percent during the month, the smallest increase since April 2011.





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Shale in Canada





Canada has vast shale resources in various stages of exploration and development. Learn more about shale and other tight resources across Canada.







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More than $148 billion in spending proposed for Canada in 2013




SUGAR LAND, TX--(Marketwire - Feb 14, 2013) - Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas) -- Industrial Info is tracking more than 900 industrial projects worth an estimated $148.85 billion that are set to begin construction in Canada in 2013. A large portion of the spending is planned for the western half of the country, primarily due to the large oil sands projects set to kick off, which help make the Metals & Minerals and Oil & Gas Production industries the country's top spenders.





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The Canadian economy is regulated to death




We are now at a point where a major impediment to economic growth, job creation, innovation and business formation is regulatory strangulation within the financial-services sector.




Before I am pounced upon by regulators and media, let me state that I have, throughout my career, been a strong advocate for intelligent, clear and effective securities regulation for the protection of investors, the securities industry and our country`s economy.





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For pipeline backers, the need is in the statistics




Proponents of oil pipeline development in Canada are going to love Statistics Canada`s new numbers on Canada`s oil and gas supply and demand.




In November, Canada`s crude oil production was up 6.4 per cent from a year earlier ` and most of that went to export. Yet exports were up only 1.6 per cent. Meanwhile, Canada`s imports of oil skyrocketed 14.6 per cent from a year earlier.





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Montreal prices, sales slip as housing market softens




MONTREAL ` The median price of a Montreal Island condo slipped four per cent in January, year over year, as the softening housing market hit sales of higher end homes, in addition to properties attractive to first-time buyers, real estate board data published Friday said.




On Montreal Island, sales of condos worth $300,000 and over slipped 18 per cent, compared to 16 per cent for less expensive apartments ` a gap which contributed to the drop in the median price of a condo to $252,000, the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board said. July changes in the federal rules on insured mortgages tended to weaken sales of lower priced condos in Montreal during the remaining few months of 2012, a trend that bolstered the median price.





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