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Gwyn Morgan on the economy

Thomas Beyer

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A worthwhile read .. key points:

There is no question that restoration of normal credit lines to small and medium-sized businesses is absolutely crucial if we are to prevent this financial tsunami from washing away enterprises so important to our economy. But restoring personal credit is another matter.

..

As political leaders urge consumers to return to shopping malls and auto dealerships with patriotic messages such as: "Show confidence in your country"; the question is, "With what?" Consumers have been living beyond their means during a decade-long shopping spree fuelled by debt. Zero equity mortgages, house flipping, multiple maxed out credit cards and deferring car payments until next year regardless of your credit rating drove average household debt in the United States and Britain to almost twice disposable income, the highest in the world. Canadian household debt is quite a lot lower at 1.4 times, but even this doesn`t tell the whole story.

...

If this weren`t bad enough news for the retail, auto and housing sectors, there`s the demographic reality that population growth is stagnant in the United States and Canada and is falling in Western Europe and Japan. And then there`s the silver tsunami. The over-60 age group in these countries is expected to increase to more than 25 per cent of the population during the coming payback decade. As people approach retirement, they spend less because they`ve already accumulated what they need and are more frugal with their retirement funds.

The bottom line is that consumer markets in Western developed countries have peaked, and will never again return to their former level.
...

All the more reason for our Conservative government to resist knee-jerk calls for even more spending before the ink is dry on the last deficit-bulging budget.

..
And raise your hand if you think that living with a little less stuff doesn`t have to mean living less.


==> Govern your debt levels & buying decisions accordingly !

Full article here:
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servle...y/Business/home
 

mcgregok

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QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Feb 16 2009, 11:38 AM) ...

All the more reason for our Conservative government to resist knee-jerk calls for even more spending before the ink is dry on the last deficit-bulging budget.

Full article here:
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servle...y/Business/home


If the Conservitive goverment resist to much we will have a Liberal Goverment for years to come. If Ontario and Qubec what more cash they get it. As an Albertan I just have to hope for the best and plan for the worst.
 

AndyLuchies

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excellent post Thomas, good summary.

Let me sum up our country`s credit problems by giving a perfect example. A woman that my wife works has actually financed her dog. Apparently she wanted a dog but didn`t quite have the money, so now she makes regular monthly payments!!!

It would be hilarious if it weren`t so tragic.
 

selias

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I have a hard time believing that Gwyn Morgan would be happy living on less (anymore).
 

Thomas Beyer

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QUOTE (selias @ Feb 19 2009, 08:01 AM) I have a hard time believing that Gwyn Morgan would be happy living on less (anymore).
yes, downsizing from private jet to first class perhaps ?

What is the difference between a rich and a poor retired oil executive ? The poor one polishes his Bentley personally ..

but all jokes aside .. Gwyn Morgan is a smart, INDEPENDENT, man (former CEO if Canada`s largest company by market CAP once: Encana) .. so he can speak his mind .. and some serious belt tightening is in order for most North-Americans and Europeans .. many drive to big a car, have too big a house, have too big a credit card debt, don`t save enough .. that was his main point and I think he is bang on !

But: the human greed factor will always kick in again .. if people can get more .. they will .. so once credit is cheaper and more availabel again they will continue to buy (too big) a new house, (too big) a new car, ...

I think Mark Twain said: "History doesn`t exactly repeat itself .. but it rhymes !"
 
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