- Joined
- Sep 14, 2007
- Messages
- 617
For a couple of years now the Canmore housing market has been in a marked correction. How much of a correction can be argued depending on what subset of the market you are actually talking about: Condos, recration, single family homes, land, etc.
Certainly the condo and vacation rental market have been the hardest hit and may still have some room to move down. Condos are down 10% and vacation rentals are down 18% from 2009. That is very significant but it also means that the much need affordability that many first time home buyers are looking for is more attainable.
The high end second home also had a significant pull back and although we still see solid pricing the volume of high end homes trading hands has diminished significantly from the peak in 2007 however we did see volumes trend higher in 2010.
But interestingly the average home seems to be trending upward and selling relatively quickly. Did you know that single family home prices are actually up 12% from 2009! Let me say that again 12%! This sub segment of the market has recovered. Now that is something that we dared not even whisper not so long ago.
For realtors and others who benefit from actual transactions (lawyers, appraisers, mortgage brokers etc) the number of sales where up slightly from 2009 as well from 300 sales to 324 but still down significantly from a peak 509 in 2006. It should be noted that inventories are still high as is days on market. This is just the new normal. We don't sell our house for top dollar in two weeks anymore. Sellers need to adjust to this reality!
But all of this is really looking in the review mirror and as well all know that is always 20/20 so what does 2011 look like for the Canmore housing market?
Let's face it, Canmore's economy is very much tied to the provincial, national and global economy. So has the global economy turned the corner. Oil is up to $90US and with new events in thelim.world.unrest/index.html?hpt=T1" target="_blank" style="color: #cc9933; text-decoration: none;"> Middle East this isn't going down anytime soon. We have more jobs in Canada then before the recession. The US Dollar is still in the tank (and will continue to be so). GDP growth in Canada is back into healthy territory. Calgary home prices are up from 2009 and the commercial office space market is on a upward trend (unbeknownst to most). Banks are financing people again but with some recent rule changes by CMHC and the Conservative Government this is making it a little harder for some. In my humble opinion the changes to amortization periods and re-financing where a positive thing for the long term viability of Canada.
Outside of a very weak USD, this bodes well for the Canmore economy and the housing market all in all. We will see very modest price increases in the single family house. Those around the median price range will move relatively quickly. Condos will continue to suffer until we get the glut of product off of the market and that isn't going to happen anytime soon unfortunately. If you have a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo you had better be outstanding at marketing and very motivated to move it.
There seems to be a certain buzz in the air that spring is around the corner from real estate point of view anyway
Certainly the condo and vacation rental market have been the hardest hit and may still have some room to move down. Condos are down 10% and vacation rentals are down 18% from 2009. That is very significant but it also means that the much need affordability that many first time home buyers are looking for is more attainable.
The high end second home also had a significant pull back and although we still see solid pricing the volume of high end homes trading hands has diminished significantly from the peak in 2007 however we did see volumes trend higher in 2010.
But interestingly the average home seems to be trending upward and selling relatively quickly. Did you know that single family home prices are actually up 12% from 2009! Let me say that again 12%! This sub segment of the market has recovered. Now that is something that we dared not even whisper not so long ago.
For realtors and others who benefit from actual transactions (lawyers, appraisers, mortgage brokers etc) the number of sales where up slightly from 2009 as well from 300 sales to 324 but still down significantly from a peak 509 in 2006. It should be noted that inventories are still high as is days on market. This is just the new normal. We don't sell our house for top dollar in two weeks anymore. Sellers need to adjust to this reality!
But all of this is really looking in the review mirror and as well all know that is always 20/20 so what does 2011 look like for the Canmore housing market?
Let's face it, Canmore's economy is very much tied to the provincial, national and global economy. So has the global economy turned the corner. Oil is up to $90US and with new events in thelim.world.unrest/index.html?hpt=T1" target="_blank" style="color: #cc9933; text-decoration: none;"> Middle East this isn't going down anytime soon. We have more jobs in Canada then before the recession. The US Dollar is still in the tank (and will continue to be so). GDP growth in Canada is back into healthy territory. Calgary home prices are up from 2009 and the commercial office space market is on a upward trend (unbeknownst to most). Banks are financing people again but with some recent rule changes by CMHC and the Conservative Government this is making it a little harder for some. In my humble opinion the changes to amortization periods and re-financing where a positive thing for the long term viability of Canada.
Outside of a very weak USD, this bodes well for the Canmore economy and the housing market all in all. We will see very modest price increases in the single family house. Those around the median price range will move relatively quickly. Condos will continue to suffer until we get the glut of product off of the market and that isn't going to happen anytime soon unfortunately. If you have a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo you had better be outstanding at marketing and very motivated to move it.
There seems to be a certain buzz in the air that spring is around the corner from real estate point of view anyway
