HOUSING PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT 2-3 YEARS
- Thread starter Charly
- Start date
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2007
- Messages
- 13,881
QUOTE (Rickson9 @ Jan 28 2010, 01:50 PM)
If oil goes above $200 a barrel by 2014 I will be a happy ...
not if .. but WHEN ..
If oil goes above $200 a barrel by 2014 I will be a happy ...
not if .. but WHEN ..
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2007
- Messages
- 1,191
QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Jan 28 2010, 04:23 PM)
not if .. but WHEN ..
Thomas,
Are you sure the economy can handle $200 per barrel oil? Should we sell our real estate except around Ft Mac?
I think, we'll move to an increasingly sustainable economy forced by rising oil prices. Every time, we're hitting prices above $120 or so, we will slow down economically. Thus creating this balance between moderate economic growth, new green energy and the oil price.
not if .. but WHEN ..
Thomas,
Are you sure the economy can handle $200 per barrel oil? Should we sell our real estate except around Ft Mac?
I think, we'll move to an increasingly sustainable economy forced by rising oil prices. Every time, we're hitting prices above $120 or so, we will slow down economically. Thus creating this balance between moderate economic growth, new green energy and the oil price.
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2007
- Messages
- 13,881
QUOTE (gwasser @ Jan 28 2010, 06:53 PM)
Thomas,
Are you sure the economy can handle $200 per barrel oil?
of course .. why not ?
smaller cars .. less imports from Asia due to high shipping costs .. less travel by plane to Mexico, Hawaii, Europe ... less fresh vegetables from Cuba, California or Mexico .. more public transport or this tough one: less Belgian, German or Japanese imported beer due to high shipping costs ..
thus MORE: local grown food, more local brewed stuff, more manufactured goods made here at home !
QUOTE (gwasser @ Jan 28 2010, 06:53 PM)
Should we sell our real estate except around Ft Mac?
a typo ? you mean: Hawaii .. or BUY in Ft. Mac ?
QUOTE (gwasser @ Jan 28 2010, 06:53 PM)
I think, we'll move to an increasingly sustainable economy forced by rising oil prices. Every time, we're hitting prices above $120 or so, we will slow down economically. Thus creating this balance between moderate economic growth, new green energy and the oil price.
exactly .. and MORE manufacturing in North-America i.e. more expensive Asian imports (due to shipping costs) .. especially heavy stuff like steel (cars !!), vegetables or furniture !
More gas based energy production or cars/buses ..
All good .. look to Europe were we both came from: they still have a splendid life .. with far (2-4 times !!) higher energy costs than North-America !!
Thomas,
Are you sure the economy can handle $200 per barrel oil?
of course .. why not ?
smaller cars .. less imports from Asia due to high shipping costs .. less travel by plane to Mexico, Hawaii, Europe ... less fresh vegetables from Cuba, California or Mexico .. more public transport or this tough one: less Belgian, German or Japanese imported beer due to high shipping costs ..
thus MORE: local grown food, more local brewed stuff, more manufactured goods made here at home !
QUOTE (gwasser @ Jan 28 2010, 06:53 PM)
Should we sell our real estate except around Ft Mac?
a typo ? you mean: Hawaii .. or BUY in Ft. Mac ?
QUOTE (gwasser @ Jan 28 2010, 06:53 PM)
I think, we'll move to an increasingly sustainable economy forced by rising oil prices. Every time, we're hitting prices above $120 or so, we will slow down economically. Thus creating this balance between moderate economic growth, new green energy and the oil price.
exactly .. and MORE manufacturing in North-America i.e. more expensive Asian imports (due to shipping costs) .. especially heavy stuff like steel (cars !!), vegetables or furniture !
More gas based energy production or cars/buses ..
All good .. look to Europe were we both came from: they still have a splendid life .. with far (2-4 times !!) higher energy costs than North-America !!
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2007
- Messages
- 13,881
QUOTE (Rickson9 @ Jan 28 2010, 09:01 PM)
Hopefully before I die!
Inflation guarantees higher prices for everything...
and for oil: as does a growing world (world population peak expected for 2050), a growing Asian demand for energy and dwindling new oil supply or supply in more expensive locations (oilsands, offshore, deep in the ocean, far north) !
Looking back from 2025: $200 oil .. boy was that cheap then !!!
Hopefully before I die!
Inflation guarantees higher prices for everything...
and for oil: as does a growing world (world population peak expected for 2050), a growing Asian demand for energy and dwindling new oil supply or supply in more expensive locations (oilsands, offshore, deep in the ocean, far north) !
Looking back from 2025: $200 oil .. boy was that cheap then !!!
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2008
- Messages
- 80
QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Jan 28 2010, 07:17 PM)
of course .. why not ?
smaller cars .. less imports from Asia due to high shipping costs .. less travel by plane to Mexico, Hawaii, Europe ... less fresh vegetables from Cuba, California or Mexico .. more public transport or this tough one: less Belgian, German or Japanese imported beer due to high shipping costs ..
thus MORE: local grown food, more local brewed stuff, more manufactured goods made here at home !
a typo ? you mean: Hawaii .. or BUY in Ft. Mac ?
exactly .. and MORE manufacturing in North-America i.e. more expensive Asian imports (due to shipping costs) .. especially heavy stuff like steel (cars !!), vegetables or furniture !
More gas based energy production or cars/buses ..
All good .. look to Europe were we both came from: they still have a splendid life .. with far (2-4 times !!) higher energy costs than North-America !!
Higher Unemployment because of many lost jobs in industries like Travel, shipping, etc.
Ambulances, firetrucks and police cars. Hospitals and hospital equipment. Modern dentistry. All need a steady, cheap supply of oil.
As long as we can keep that oil coming, we've got no problem. Life goes on. If that source of cheap oil disappears... we're talking catastrophe. It's nearly unthinkable.
Can we say...RIOTS IN THE STREETS? (of which will most likely start in the USA)
As oil prices increase, natural gas demand will become a cheaper and more viable energy source.
Coal will also start to have a greater play, as liquid coal can be used in diesel engines. There is plenty of cheap Coal in North America.
People will also realize that there is a coming worldwide boom in nuclear power. For the past 40 years, nuclear has been the fastest-growing power source in the world. And now it's really taking off.
of course .. why not ?
smaller cars .. less imports from Asia due to high shipping costs .. less travel by plane to Mexico, Hawaii, Europe ... less fresh vegetables from Cuba, California or Mexico .. more public transport or this tough one: less Belgian, German or Japanese imported beer due to high shipping costs ..
thus MORE: local grown food, more local brewed stuff, more manufactured goods made here at home !
a typo ? you mean: Hawaii .. or BUY in Ft. Mac ?
exactly .. and MORE manufacturing in North-America i.e. more expensive Asian imports (due to shipping costs) .. especially heavy stuff like steel (cars !!), vegetables or furniture !
More gas based energy production or cars/buses ..
All good .. look to Europe were we both came from: they still have a splendid life .. with far (2-4 times !!) higher energy costs than North-America !!
Higher Unemployment because of many lost jobs in industries like Travel, shipping, etc.
Ambulances, firetrucks and police cars. Hospitals and hospital equipment. Modern dentistry. All need a steady, cheap supply of oil.
As long as we can keep that oil coming, we've got no problem. Life goes on. If that source of cheap oil disappears... we're talking catastrophe. It's nearly unthinkable.
Can we say...RIOTS IN THE STREETS? (of which will most likely start in the USA)
As oil prices increase, natural gas demand will become a cheaper and more viable energy source.
Coal will also start to have a greater play, as liquid coal can be used in diesel engines. There is plenty of cheap Coal in North America.
People will also realize that there is a coming worldwide boom in nuclear power. For the past 40 years, nuclear has been the fastest-growing power source in the world. And now it's really taking off.
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2007
- Messages
- 13,881
Well, 2 1/2 years later: the advisor was wrong. House prices in Calgary have increased and prices for apartment buildings have VASTLY increased .. about 20-25% because rents have vastly increased and vacancies are super low !
did you BUY in 2010 ? We did .. more difficult now in an increased space but still decent yields !!
did you BUY in 2010 ? We did .. more difficult now in an increased space but still decent yields !!
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2007
- Messages
- 13,881
[quote user=Rickson9]A good thread to show that predicting the future is a waste of my time.
Perhaps "predictions" are not wise, but "assumptions" are !
An assumption is similar to a prediction in my [limited] vocabulary.
Wikipedia defines assumption & prediction as follows:
In logic, an assumption is a proposition that is taken for granted, as if it were true
based upon presupposition without preponderance of the facts. An
assumption that is considered to be self-evident or otherwise
fundamental is called an axiom.
A prediction (Latin prÃ-, "before," and dicere, "to say") or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there is much overlap between prediction and forecast, a prediction may be a statement that some outcome is expected, while a forecast is more specific, and may cover a range of possible outcomes.
Although guaranteed information about the future is in many cases impossible, prediction is necessary to allow plans
to be made about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that
prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and
hard."[sup][1]
Prediction is closely related to uncertainty. Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce uncertainty in prediction.[2][/sup]
One has to have good assumptions about the future before one does s.th.
For example, you assume right now, as you read this, that the screen in front of you will not explode in your face, otherwise you'd take cover and not read it. Hence you predict that for the next minute at least the screen will not explode [although it may].
i..e in your case by investing in the US you make some implicit assumptions about interest rates [that they will not go to 18% in a day], house prices [that they will likely not drop another 50% but are on the eventual rise], states that are stable due to economic growth [ such as TX ..], house price appreciation, rental demand, rental rates, utility prices, construction volume, competition etc. ..
Perhaps "predictions" are not wise, but "assumptions" are !
An assumption is similar to a prediction in my [limited] vocabulary.
Wikipedia defines assumption & prediction as follows:
In logic, an assumption is a proposition that is taken for granted, as if it were true
based upon presupposition without preponderance of the facts. An
assumption that is considered to be self-evident or otherwise
fundamental is called an axiom.
A prediction (Latin prÃ-, "before," and dicere, "to say") or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there is much overlap between prediction and forecast, a prediction may be a statement that some outcome is expected, while a forecast is more specific, and may cover a range of possible outcomes.
Although guaranteed information about the future is in many cases impossible, prediction is necessary to allow plans
to be made about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that
prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and
hard."[sup][1]
Prediction is closely related to uncertainty. Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce uncertainty in prediction.[2][/sup]
One has to have good assumptions about the future before one does s.th.
For example, you assume right now, as you read this, that the screen in front of you will not explode in your face, otherwise you'd take cover and not read it. Hence you predict that for the next minute at least the screen will not explode [although it may].
i..e in your case by investing in the US you make some implicit assumptions about interest rates [that they will not go to 18% in a day], house prices [that they will likely not drop another 50% but are on the eventual rise], states that are stable due to economic growth [ such as TX ..], house price appreciation, rental demand, rental rates, utility prices, construction volume, competition etc. ..
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2009
- Messages
- 1,210
[quote user=ThomasBeyer]
One has to have good assumptions about the future before one does s.th.
For example, you assume right now, as you read this, that the screen in front of you will not explode in your face, otherwise you'd take cover and not read it. Hence you predict that for the next minute at least the screen will not explode [although it may].
i..e in your case by investing in the US you make some implicit assumptions about interest rates [that they will not go to 18% in a day], house prices [that they will likely not drop another 50% but are on the eventual rise], states that are stable due to economic growth [ such as TX ..], house price appreciation, rental demand, rental rates, utility prices, construction volume, competition etc. ..
Those things may have been your assumptions, but none of them crossed my mind (including exploding monitor).
#1. Can I have the assumption if I never gave it a thought?
#2. If I never thought about it can it be a good assumption?
If the answer to #1 and #2 is 'yes', then it would appear that assumptions are 'good' if they come true and financial assumptions are 'good' if they make money.
Assumptions appear to be both trivial (i.e. exploding monitor) and non-trivial (come true/make money).
If that is the case, then the only assumption I appear to be making is that stocks and real estate make me a lot of money when I buy them at distressed prices.
The other examples, for me, are trivial assumptions.
To be clear, I don't consider it worth a thought if my monitor will explode, interest rates go to 18% in a day, RE prices drop another 50% (which would be more than awesome btw), states are stable due to economic growth, etc.
I never checked them, I never asked about them, I never thought about them. Just like the exploding monitor. They never crossed my mind and now that they have (because you brought them up), I still don't care about them.
For me, assumptions outside of my 1 non-trivial assumption, are a waste of my time.
However, spending a lot of time thinking about my 1 non-trivial assumption is very useful for me.
Hopefully that helps clear up a bit of my thinking on the subject.
PS: I used the term 'predictions' because it is in the title of this thread.
One has to have good assumptions about the future before one does s.th.
For example, you assume right now, as you read this, that the screen in front of you will not explode in your face, otherwise you'd take cover and not read it. Hence you predict that for the next minute at least the screen will not explode [although it may].
i..e in your case by investing in the US you make some implicit assumptions about interest rates [that they will not go to 18% in a day], house prices [that they will likely not drop another 50% but are on the eventual rise], states that are stable due to economic growth [ such as TX ..], house price appreciation, rental demand, rental rates, utility prices, construction volume, competition etc. ..
Those things may have been your assumptions, but none of them crossed my mind (including exploding monitor).
#1. Can I have the assumption if I never gave it a thought?
#2. If I never thought about it can it be a good assumption?
If the answer to #1 and #2 is 'yes', then it would appear that assumptions are 'good' if they come true and financial assumptions are 'good' if they make money.
Assumptions appear to be both trivial (i.e. exploding monitor) and non-trivial (come true/make money).
If that is the case, then the only assumption I appear to be making is that stocks and real estate make me a lot of money when I buy them at distressed prices.
The other examples, for me, are trivial assumptions.
To be clear, I don't consider it worth a thought if my monitor will explode, interest rates go to 18% in a day, RE prices drop another 50% (which would be more than awesome btw), states are stable due to economic growth, etc.
I never checked them, I never asked about them, I never thought about them. Just like the exploding monitor. They never crossed my mind and now that they have (because you brought them up), I still don't care about them.
For me, assumptions outside of my 1 non-trivial assumption, are a waste of my time.
However, spending a lot of time thinking about my 1 non-trivial assumption is very useful for me.
Hopefully that helps clear up a bit of my thinking on the subject.
PS: I used the term 'predictions' because it is in the title of this thread.