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July 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for July 2012.
 

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Five qustions to ask before selling your home





In June, 2010, when my boyfriend and I bought our first house together ` a 1940s bungalow in Mimico just steps away from Lake Ontario ` we were thrilled. Home ownership signalled our status as adults. Like many young and eager homeowners, we spent countless hours hunting the aisles of IKEA and Home Depot, as well as painting and assembling furniture. (It's likely I still have flakes of paint in my hair and Allen key calluses on my hands).






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Banks warn Ottawa over lending rules





The federal government`s efforts to cool the overheated housing market are raising concerns among Canada`s biggest banks that the changes might hit the economy harder than intended, particularly if the new measures are left in place for too long.





Just over a week after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty introduced new mortgage rules designed to slow the pace of household borrowing, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank have both signalled that the steps will have a dampening effect on the country`s economy. Though both banks say they support the government`s actions, RBC and TD caution there are also risks associated with trying to slow down the housing market.




`It`s hard to argue that they shouldn`t be doing something to slow this down,` David McKay, head of Canadian banking at RBC, Canada`s largest bank, said in an interview. `But what is the longer term implication of all this in a higher rate environment? And do we pull back too tightly on the reins?`





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Redrawing North America's energy map





EDMONTON - A startling explosion of shale oil production in the U.S. is changing the face of North America`s petroleum marketplace.




The river of new light oil from both the Bakken formation in North Dakota, southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as the Eagle Ford formation in Texas, is now about one million barrels per day and set to double over the next few years.




And it is a direct competitor to Alberta`s SCO (synthetic crude oil) produced from raw bitumen by upgraders in Edmonton and Fort McMurray.






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Paltry job gains seen for Canada in June






OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's economy likely created a paltry 5,000 new jobs in June for a second straight month of slower hiring as employers worried about fallout from the European debt crisis and the stalled U.S. economy.




The median forecast in a Reuters survey of economists is for a job gain of 5,000 in the month, with seven of the 25 forecasters surveyed predicting job losses.




The unemployment rate is seen unchanged from May at 7.3 percent.





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Canadians are richer than they think



It seems every day Canadians awake to another sober message from a bank economist or cabinet minister ` one part scolding, one part warning, all very serious. We are spending too much relative to our earnings. We are overextending ourselves when we buy houses, and we are even taking on more debt than our supposedly more spendthrift American cousins. The priests of commerce are telling us we are sinners.





But lurking behind the dire headlines about consumer debt and our creeping profligacy is a strange new reality: The average Canadian has quietly become richer than the average American. Over the past five years, net worth per Canadian household has exceeded net worth per American household (total combined value of liquid and real estate assets minus debt) for the first time.





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Target's hiring boom poised to roil Canada's retail market





Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. plan to hire tens of thousands of workers in Canada over the next two years, increasing pressure on domestic retailers from Sears Canada Inc. to Canadian Tire Corp Ltd.




Target, the second-largest U.S. discount retailer, will hire as many as 27,000 people in Canada next year for its first stores in the country, while Wal-Mart said it plans to add 4,000 employees this year, about 500 more than it initially forecast.




`We`re in a period of great dislocation,` due to the rising presence of U.S. competitors, said Keith Howlett, retail analyst at Desjardins Securities Inc. in Toronto. `It`s going to be an extremely challenging time for retailers.`






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Bank of Montreal predicts low-key interest rate until mid-2013



TORONTO ` The Bank of Montreal predicted Tuesday that the Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate low for longer than it expected.





Economists at the bank are now predicting that the central bank will not raise its key rate until July 2013, six months later than their earlier prediction of January 2013.





The rate affects the prime lending rates at banks and in turn influences all kinds of interest rates including those charged to variable rate mortgages and lines of credit.





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Tinkering with mortgage rules won't affect housing prices





ST. LOUIS, MO, Jul 4, 2012/ Troy Media/ ` There is considerable concern about rising house prices in Canada. Some fear a housing bubble like the one that decimated the U.S. housing market and spilled over into the world-wide Great Financial Crisis.



Moreover, there is legitimate concern that household debt has reached new heights at 152 per cent of discretionary incomes. The Bank of Canada considers it a principal risk to the country`s financial stability.





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Flaherty acknowledges possible pain




Jim Flaherty is now conceding the economy may take a bit of a beating because of the new, tighter mortgage rules ` billing it as a necessary evil to protect the housing market.




"I realize it may have some dampening effect on the economy and I realize it may have some dampening effect in the residential real estate market,` the Finance minister said at a conference in Ireland Friday. `We're prepared to take that risk, quite frankly, because of the greater risk of the development over time of a housing bubble."




The acknowledgement may do little to silence broker concerns about a probable slowdown in home sales and the direct effect on their own businesses. They continue to challenge the need for the mortgage rule changes, which will see maximum amortizations capped at 25 years, among other key changes.





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Canada's foreign investment rules dissuade China




Canada`s opaque foreign direct investment rules are deterring China from investing in the country`s extensive resource sector, according to a new report from the Conference Board of Canada.




The report calls on the government to `rethink` how it screens foreign investment.




Under the current rules of the Investment Canada Act, Ottawa must approve all foreign investment worth more than $330 million and determine whether it is a `net benefit` to Canada. The federal government promised to update the rules in the wake of the blocked takeover of PotashCorp by BHP Biliton.





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New mortgage rules won't lower prices





There is considerable concern about rising house prices in Canada. Some fear a housing bubble like the one that decimated the U.S. housing market and spilled over into the worldwide Great Financial Crisis.




Moreover, there is legitimate concern that household debt has reached new heights at 152 per cent of discretionary income. The Bank of Canada considers it a principal risk to the country's financial stability.






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Ottawa to allow credit unions to more easily go national




OTTAWA - The federal government will announce new proposed rules Friday that make it easier for credit unions to expand across the country and compete with Canada's large banks.




Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Thursday that the new regulations will be posted online in the Canada Gazette on Friday, starting a 30-day consultation process on the proposed changes.




Under the proposal, the government would give provincially-regulated credit unions the option to become federally incorporated, allowing them to better operate across provincial borders. The option was first announced in the 2010 budget.





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Ottawa to provinces: Heed the lessons of Europe





OTTAWA ` Canada`s federal finance minister is urging his provincial counterparts to heed the lessons of Europe and keep tightening their budgets as he seeks to keep Canada`s debt-to-GDP ratio the lowest in the Group of Seven rich nations.




In remarks summarizing a conference call he held with the provincial ministers on Wednesday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty warned on Thursday that the domestic economy could be hurt by the European debt crisis and the stalled U.S. economy.






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Anemic hiring gains put job seekers on notice







Labour markets in Canada and the United States both slowed in June, in a sign of even more frustrating times to come for those in search of employment.




Canadian employers added a net 7,300 workers in June, Statistics Canada said Friday, and the jobless rate fell unexpectedly to 7.2 per cent. But while the gain was the fourth in a row, it followed an increase of 7,700 in May, reinforcing a view that a much more impressive stretch of hiring earlier this year will not be repeated any time soon.






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No breaks for offshore condo investors from the taxman




There have been a lot of stories of foreign citizens buying Canadian condominium units from floor plans and then reselling them, for a profit, as soon as the building is registered. These sellers must be aware that the Canadian taxman must be paid before they get their money. In some cases, the entire deal could be delayed until this gets done.




In general, you are a resident of Canada for tax purposes if you have lived here for at least 183 days in the past year. If you are a resident, and you sell any Canadian real estate, you do not have to pay any tax owing until you file your tax return at the end of the year.





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Stiffer bidding war rules sought as buyer offers $90,000 over asking with no rival bids




A Toronto realtor is calling for tougher rules around bidding wars after her clients were shocked to discover they`d paid $90,000 over asking for a midtown house on which theirs was the only offer.




While she eventually convinced the listing agent and the sellers to accept about half that ` $45,000 over asking for the almost $1 million home ` realtor Josie Stern says the incident last month is just further proof that more transparency is needed in the bidding process.





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Canadian housing prices likely to stay flat rather than decline





Although one prominent forecaster recently warned that a substantial drop in housing prices is on the horizon, other analysts continue to have a more optimistic outlook.




More likely, the average price in Canada will be about flat for the foreseeable future, says economist Robert Hogue, who follows real estate for the Royal Bank.






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Vancouver-style rents a drag on the national economy







Ian Patton recently rented a new place in Vancouver after months of looking for a good deal for himself, his wife and their two kids.




Although a four-bedroom house for $1,900 a month is considered a good deal in the city, Patton, 41, said he thinks Vancouver's low vacancy rate means the quality isn't what it should be.




"It is a really old house and it's falling apart," he said in a telephone interview. The land-lord is "not going to paint the place [and] they're not going to refinish the hardwood floors that have been walked on for 30 years and are starting to come apart. The [garage] roof is falling in - and [the landlord] just wrote into the lease that the garage is not to be used.






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Harper casts Canada as a 'great country rising'






In a speech to his hometown crowd both highly partisan and ringingly nationalist, Prime Minister Stephen Harper cast Canada as a `great country rising` that represents the best hope for the world.




At his annual Stampede barbecue for his Calgary Southwest riding, Harper contrasted Canada`s relatively robust economy to the troubles of Europe, the United States and Japan.




And he said Canada`s diversity, its emphasis on both natural resources and innovation, and its `safety nets` that are still `soundly structured, affordable and well-managed` make Canada a model for the rest of the world.





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