March 2014 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

Housing starts edge up in February





This was up slightly from the 191,513 units the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recorded in January. The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.




"The trend in housing starts remained stable in February for the seventh consecutive month. Since August 2013, the trend has essentially remained in the 185,000 to 195,000 range, with month-to-month variations generally of two per cent or less. This is in line with CMHC's outlook calling for a stable housing market in 2014," said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at CMHC.





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[Ally]

MoneySense releases 2014 top 10 places for new immigrants





Where in this vast country is the best place to settle?





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Hiring climate said to be 'modest' in coming quarter





Canadian employers expect to hire cautiously in the next three months, with job seekers more likely to have success in Western Canada than in Ontario and Quebec, according to a new survey of hiring intentions.





The latest quarterly employment outlook survey from Manpower finds that employers are forecasting only a "modest" hiring climate in the April-to-June period, with new business growth at its weakest level in five months.





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[Ally]

296,000 job vacancies in Canada in Q4





TORONTO, March 12, 2014 /CNW/ - According to the latest Help Wanted report from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business' (CFIB), approximately 296,000 full and part-time job vacancies were reported in the fourth quarter of 2013. The overall vacancy rate remained virtually unchanged from the previous quarter, at 2.5 per cent.





These results are based on regular surveys of CFIB members on economic and business conditions, including shortages of qualified labour. Job vacancies in the quarterly report are defined as openings that remain unfilled for at least four months because business owners have been unable to find suitable employees.





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[Ally]

Ottawa meddling, not high prices, is the threat to Canadian housing





OTTAWA ` Canada`s hot real estate market continued to gather steam last month, but a new report from a respected mortgage and housing expert makes the case that prices are not in bubble territory and, if anything, have room to grow.





The report by Toronto-based analyst Will Dunning stands conventional wisdom on its head as related to the Canadian housing market, which almost every think-tank and economist believes is overheated and headed for a fall, whether by way of a soft landing or crash.





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[Ally]

How should Canadian house prices be cooled off?





The Energizer Bunny marching through the Canadian housing market isn`t banging its drum so hard these days. But it `keeps going and going` in places like Vancouver and Toronto, so regulators are mulling over a further tightening of mortgage rules in Canada.





But as Quebec Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau recently suggested, it may be better to target just the overheated parts of Canada this time around. Elsewhere, house sales and prices are coming off the boil. Clamping down across the board would do more harm than good in their case.





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[Ally]

Toronto condo prices set to drop as demand wanes





Toronto`s condo market could finally see the price dip buyers have been waiting for and sellers dread.








A new report from TD Bank predicts condo prices in Canada`s largest city will fall by an average of 4 per cent this year and next, citing a drop in demand amid a continued building boom.





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[Ally]

Renting to students in Ontario





Residential landlords in Ontario face a lot of challenges.







Whether it`s professional tenants manipulating the system to avoid paying rent or the government 2014 guideline allowing you to raise the rent only 0.8%, the challenges are real and daunting.





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[Ally]

High number of Toronto listings go to bidding war





A long time ago, in a land far far away, there was an oft-heard adage in the real estate business ` price a house right and it will sell. But this is now, in Toronto, where you price it low to spark a bidding war and expect it will sell for way over asking.





According to Realosophy, a brokerage and research firm, more than half of the homes that sold last year in Toronto`s 10 hottest neighbourhoods sold for more than asking. The highest was Kensington Market, where 69% of deals done exceeded the sticker price.





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[Ally]

Fixed rate mortgages trump variable





It now makes more financial sense for Canadians to lock into a longer-term fixed mortgage than one with variable rates, according to a new report from BMO Capital Markets.





BMO chief economist Douglas Porter and senior economist Benjamin Reitzes say the improving economy and current mortgage offers tilt the balance in favour of locking in as opposed to opting for a variable rate mortgage that moves in lock-step with the prime rate.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

A chart to put the Canadian housing bubble in perspective





The past week saw the `Is There A Canadian Housing Bubble` pendulum swing decidedly toward the No camp. First, economists at TD Bank made the case Toronto`s market isn`t significantly overvalued, and that price growth will cool gradually over the next few years. Then BofA Merrill Lynch argued the housing market will experience a `measured unwind` and that `the Canadian housing market is built on stone, not sand.`





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Why Canada's job market hasn't recovered






On the first Friday of every month, Statistics Canada releases its Labour Force Survey, showing how many Canadians are unemployed and how many are working part-time and full-time.







What it doesn`t publish is the number who are underemployed ` stuck in low-wage survival jobs, involuntarily working part-time, taking post-graduate courses because no jobs are available or working for free as interns.





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[Ally]

Canadians are in the money as wealth rises and household debt falls from record





OTTAWA ` The financial health of Canadian households improved ever so slightly in the final three months of 2013, a development that will give some comfort to the Bank of Canada in maintaining its low-interest-rate policy.





Statistics Canada said Friday that household worth in the country rose by 3% to $217,700 on a per capita basis in the fourth quarter, largely as a result of a sharp 5.9% gain in the value of shares and other equities held by Canadians.





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[Ally]

Canadian oil output hits record 4.3 million bpd amid higher global demand





Canadian oil producers raised their output to a record 4.3 million barrels per day in February amid higher global demand, according to the International Energy Agency.





Actual data from last December showed Canadian production had reached a record of 4.2 million bpd, and is now estimated to have reached 4.3 million bpd by February, thanks mostly to higher bitumen, natural gas liquids, and light conventional output, which rose by about 100,000 bpd combined, the IEA said in its March report published Friday.





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[Ally]

Analyzing BMO's go fixed advice





Fixed rates are now `superior,` said BMO in this report released Thursday.





`While we have in the past supported going variable,` circumstances now `favour`locking in...`





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[Ally]

Buyers squeezed out of housing market face hurdles





When the Occupy movement hit the headlines in 2011, we heard about the 99 per cent, but when it comes to getting a mortgage there's another group in Canada - the 9 per cent.





These are the nearly one in 10 prospective home buyers who as recently as two years ago qualified for mortgages but no longer do so. Rule changes have made it tougher for them to make down payments, to get mortgage insurance and to arrange affordable payment terms.





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[Ally]

Underemployment shapes Canada's jobs market





On the first Friday of every month, Statistics Canada releases its Labour Force Survey, showing how many Canadians are unemployed and how many are working part-time and full-time.





What it doesn't publish is the number who are underemployed ` stuck in low-wage survival jobs, involuntarily working part-time, taking post-graduate courses because no jobs are available, or working for free as interns.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

CREA trims sales outlook for 2014, but sees no major correction





Canada`s housing market is slowing, but the Canadian Real Estate Association still sees no signs of an strong correction that would disrupt the economy or crash real estate values.





In a new forecast released Monday, the national organization of real estate agencies predicted that sales volumes would continue to grow this year to 463,700 units ` a 1.3 per cent gain ` over 2013, although that is below the association`s projection in December.





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[Ally]

First-time homebuyer budget increases





TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - March 18, 2014) - First-time home buyers have increased their budget to an average of $316,100 - up from $300,000 in 2013 - according to the BMO 2014 First-Time Home Buyers Report released today. However, the average down payment percentage has remained unchanged from last year at 16 per cent ($50,576).





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[Ally]

Home prices to cool with warm weather





Canadian home prices continued their surprisingly strong ascent in February, but are unlikely to prompt policy-makers to take actions to cool the market at this point.





The average selling price of existing homes that traded hands across the country last month was $406,372, up 10.1 per cent from a year earlier.





Read the full article here.