- Joined
- Sep 18, 2007
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- 127
Interesting interviewhttp://http://www.foxbusiness.com/v...stId=1292d14d0e3afdcf0b31500afefb92724c08f046http://www.foxbusiness.com/video/index.htm...efb92724c08f046
http://http://www.hsdent.com/financial-forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=325#p461
Questions on details of the HS DENT December Newsletter by smilingmonk on Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:30 am
There are two areas I`m curious about learning more from Dent`s commentary.
First, the Newsletter predicts that the market will rise in December and then fall. There are two scenarios, as graphed in Charts 10 and 11. Both charts show the DOW touching 4000 later in 2009.
Is this analysis based predominantly on history and some kind of "technical" analysis or market sentiment indicator? Or have the companies that make up the DOW been analyzed with the 4000 DOW prediction based on projected market value of those companies in the near future?
Second, Dent`s Newsletter predicts a rebound in the price of oil. Yet, when I read an analysis over on Seeking Alpha, I see the following.
...Massive stockpiles are building up, and the oil production projects made during the oil bubble are still in place. Oil demand continues to drop as, for the first time in decades, Japan, Europe, and North America will all be in a recession at the same time.
If there is a glut of oil on the market, does this make the market more difficult to manipulate? Or is the prediction that Big Money will somehow "unfreeze" to invest in oil and other commodities to then re-assert their price manipulation strategies?smilingmonk Member [/color]
Re: ANSWER Questions on details of the December Newsletter
by [email protected] on Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:13 am
Just a quick note: In this market and under these conditions, fundamental analysis simply does not work, at least in the short term. Due to forced liquidations and the sense of fear, stocks have been punished far more than fundamentals would suggest. Our forecast for a shorter-term rebound is primarily technical and psychological in nature. When the forced selling due to hedge fund and mutual fund redemptions stops, we expect a significant rally. The strength and durability
As for oil, much the same applies. The "correct" long-term price for oil is probably somewhere north of $80, though this is of course something open to debate among analysts. Of course, forced selling, short selling, and, as you mention, a short-term supply glut can send it dramatically lower, at least temporarily.
HS Dent expects the price of oil to rally for technical reasons and due to the shear amount of stimulus being pumped into the economy. We expect some amount of that to spill over into the capital markets, and oil futures in particular.
I hope this clears things up a bit!
http://http://www.hsdent.com/financial-forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=325#p461
Questions on details of the HS DENT December Newsletter by smilingmonk on Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:30 am
There are two areas I`m curious about learning more from Dent`s commentary.
First, the Newsletter predicts that the market will rise in December and then fall. There are two scenarios, as graphed in Charts 10 and 11. Both charts show the DOW touching 4000 later in 2009.
Is this analysis based predominantly on history and some kind of "technical" analysis or market sentiment indicator? Or have the companies that make up the DOW been analyzed with the 4000 DOW prediction based on projected market value of those companies in the near future?
Second, Dent`s Newsletter predicts a rebound in the price of oil. Yet, when I read an analysis over on Seeking Alpha, I see the following.
...Massive stockpiles are building up, and the oil production projects made during the oil bubble are still in place. Oil demand continues to drop as, for the first time in decades, Japan, Europe, and North America will all be in a recession at the same time.
If there is a glut of oil on the market, does this make the market more difficult to manipulate? Or is the prediction that Big Money will somehow "unfreeze" to invest in oil and other commodities to then re-assert their price manipulation strategies?smilingmonk Member [/color]
Re: ANSWER Questions on details of the December Newsletter
by [email protected] on Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:13 am Just a quick note: In this market and under these conditions, fundamental analysis simply does not work, at least in the short term. Due to forced liquidations and the sense of fear, stocks have been punished far more than fundamentals would suggest. Our forecast for a shorter-term rebound is primarily technical and psychological in nature. When the forced selling due to hedge fund and mutual fund redemptions stops, we expect a significant rally. The strength and durability
As for oil, much the same applies. The "correct" long-term price for oil is probably somewhere north of $80, though this is of course something open to debate among analysts. Of course, forced selling, short selling, and, as you mention, a short-term supply glut can send it dramatically lower, at least temporarily.
HS Dent expects the price of oil to rally for technical reasons and due to the shear amount of stimulus being pumped into the economy. We expect some amount of that to spill over into the capital markets, and oil futures in particular.
I hope this clears things up a bit!