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November 2010 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for November 2010.
 

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Employment data to back slow growth

OTTAWA — The coming week`s data on Canadian employment is expected to be indicative of an economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slow pace.

Statistics Canada reports job figures for October on Friday, with economists expecting a gain of 15,000 people for the month and an unemployment rate remaining at eight per cent.

That would be an improvement over the 6,600 job losses in September, which was the second month in three to post declines, with July being the only other month this year that has seen an overall loss.

Still, the anticipated job gains for October would mark a sharp reduction from the average monthly growth of about 35,000 jobs so far this year.

"After creating nearly 330,000 jobs since the start of the year, the pace of job growth has slowed in recent months . . . ," said David Tulk, senior strategist with TD Securities. "This expected moderation was recently reflected in the employment component of the (Bank of Canada`s) Q3 business outlook survey, which showed that just 39 per cent of respondents intend to increase employment."

Tulk forecast that 10,000 people joined the ranks of the employed in October, though he still sees the jobless rate inching up to 8.1 per cent as more people joined the job hunt.

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`No time to be complacent,` IMF warns Canada

Just because Canada weathered the recession better than most doesn`t mean it can lower its guard. Slowing global demand, high household debt and a rising tide of protectionism could yet deliver sucker punches to an unsteady recovery.

That`s the advice the International Monetary Fund gave Thursday as it presented conclusions from its mission this month to Canada. It cautioned that the country`s economic growth has slowed lately and risks to its outlook are increasing.

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Canada`s economy gets growth spurt

Canada`s economy bounced back in August, after the first contraction in almost a year, regaining momentum even as prospects are restrained by a "gravitational pull" from sluggishness in the United States .

Statistics Canada said Friday that gross domestic product grew 0.3 per cent in the month – the most since March – as energy production, wholesale trade and the country`s factories led a broad range of gains after a 0.1-per-cent drop in GDP in July. Moreover, the economy in August was more than 4 per cent larger than in the same month a year earlier.

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New fight over MLS may be on the horizon

A new fight threatens to break out between the country`s real estate agents and the Competition Bureau, this time over the way the industry handles the treasure trove of data generated by each sale on its Multiple Listing Service.

The Canadian Real Estate Association recently ratified a deal to open the MLS to those who want to pay a flat fee for a listing, and then handle the rest of the sale on their own. But that isn`t the end of the bureau`s interest; industry sources say it is also examining whether the data agents generate and keep in the password-protected section of the MLS should be made available to anyone listing with a flat-fee brokerage.

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Genworth Canada overshadows U.S. counterpart

Late last week, Genworth MI Canada Inc.`s (MIC-T27.15-0.10-0.37%) third-quarter earnings beat analyst expectations by a long shot on the back of strong gross premium underwriting and declining delinquency rates.

Strong earnings have done wonders for the stock. Since going public in June, 2009, Genworth Canada`s shares are up 43 per cent. Last week the firm also bumped its dividend by 20 per cent to $1.04 per share annualized.

Now some analysts are raising their expectations. Geoff Kwan, analyst at RBC Dominion Securities, raised his 12-month target price to $35 and his earnings per share forecasts by 8 per cent.

South of the border its a completely different story for the U.S. operation, Genworth Financial Inc. Although the stock has seen 10 per cent growth in the past 12 months, things are looking rocky. On Friday, hedge fund manager Steve Eisman, who holds a position in Genworth Financial, announced he plans to wage a proxy battle to replace management if they follow through on their wealth management acquisition plans when the stock is trading for less than 40 per cent of book value, Reuters reported.

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Recovery more fragile than expected: International Energy Agency

SINGAPORE - Global economic recovery has been more fragile than expected and oil inventories remain very high, Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.

He also cautioned about the creation of an asset bubble in commodities following the second round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

"The economic recovery has been a bit more fragile than people thought," he told Reuters in an interview at the Singapore International Energy Week conference.

"There`s still some uncertainty about recovery in Europe, while China is concerned about inflation and they`re tightening policy."

Tanaka said the oil market was currently very well supplied. "OECD stock levels are very, very high - historically high, and this situation will continue well into next year."

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Why embracing failure is good for the economy

Most of us are familiar with a little blue and yellow can of spray in our garages or under the kitchen sink called WD-40. That is the trademarked name of a lubricating spray developed in 1953 by a Californian named Norm Larsen. It was originally designed to repel water and prevent corrosion, and later was found to have a variety of practical household uses. WD-40 stands for "Water Displacement -40th Attempt."

Fortieth attempt? You almost hear Mrs. Larsen yelling down into the workshop: "Norm, sweetie, forget it! You`ve tried over 30 formulas ... it`s not gonna work!"

As investors and taxpayers, we are more likely to identify with Norm`s wife than Norm. If success is not ensured, we get antsy. We want our mutual funds to go up and never down. We want ventures supported by government dollars to be a sure thing. This is not, however, how you succeed and make money in the long term in a highly competitive and ever changing global economy.

The aversion to failure in our society has gone too far. We`ve become so intolerant of mistakes and errors that we go to enormous lengths to either hide them or pass them off as success in disguise. This cult of nothing-less-than-success undermines the kind of risk-taking needed to develop new processes, new products, new markets and new jobs.

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Condominium market in Canada heating up: Re/Max

OTTAWA -- Condominiums have become a hot sector of the Canadian real estate market, particularly as an option for first-time homebuyers spooked by the escalating prices for single-family homes, says a report released Monday.

Real estate-services firm Re/Max says affordability, lifestyle, investment opportunities and urban renewal efforts are among the reasons condo sales have spiked over the last year in some Canadian markets.

"As one of few affordable housing options available to first-time buyers, the concept is poised for dramatic growth in years to come," Michael Polzler, executive vice-president for Re/Max`s Ontario-Atlantic Canada operations, said in a statement.

Re/Max said condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area are up 10.4 per cent, year-to-date, as of September, and now represent one out of every three homes sold there. In Ottawa, sales are up 11.9 per cent.

"The lifestyle has also gained a foothold with younger, hipper audiences as the definition of home ownership evolves with the changing demographic," Polzler added. "Dreams of the small home with a white picket fence are being replaced by the funky loft apartment in proximity to shops, restaurants and entertainment."

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Canada among 12 most overpriced housing markets in the world

The U.S. housing market may have crashed, but bubbles around the world keep blowing.

Prices in some of the world`s major real estate markets continue to be inflated by real reasons, like scarcity, and by less savory realities, like easy credit and speculation.

The Economist has broken down which markets are most over-inflated, by comparing rental prices to sale prices of properties.

This reflects what the cash flow is on a potential investment property versus the underlying asset value. If you don`t get much cash out of the rental, the property purchase makes less and less sense.

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Real Estate Renovated

It`s akin to a land rush. But instead of land up for grabs, it`s the right to sell land that is about to attract prospective real estate agents from far and wide.

And why not? Total sales activity through the Canadian Real Estate Association`s Multiple Listing Service was $150-billion in 2009. Even at a modest 4% commission — I sure didn`t get a rate that low last time I sold my house — that`s $6-billion worth of fees for the taking.

The only problem until this month was that CREA had built a wall around the MLS system, restricting how real estate could be bought and sold. In March, the group, which represents about 100 boards across the country, reversed course and changed its bylaws to allow all types of buying and selling models through the MLS.

The move brought change almost immediately with agents jumping into the field with offers to list property on the MLS for a flat fee and let the consumer do everything from showing houses to negotiating themselves. But CREA still reserved the right to change its rules and put in new restrictions.

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China Percentage of Total Global Commodities Consumption, 2008-2009

We hear a lot about how China`s commodities demand is enormous, but a latest report from Morgan Stanley, `The China Files: Europe`, shows us just how much larger the nation`s consumption has become.

China is a voracious global consumer of coal, tin, lead, zinc, aluminum, and copper.

Morgan Stanley:

Today, China competes for these limited resources with other growing economies in a global market vastly different from the one that it entered as the dominant emerging economy in 1993. Since then, more countries have started to develop— Brazil, Russia, and India, for example—and now demonstrate considerable demand for the same resources as China.

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Flaherty says U.S. housing a threat

WHITBY, Ontario (Reuters) - The faltering U.S. housing market is a potential threat to a Canadian economy that is likely to produce only moderate growth, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Friday.

"The American housing sector remains a major concern," he told reporters at an event in Whitby, Ontario.

The IMF warned on Thursday that risks to Canada`s economic outlook have increased and include the impact of housing market weakness in the United States, Canada`s largest trading partner.

Even so, Canada`s economy resumed growing in August after a brief downturn in July, bolstered by wholesale trade, manufacturing and oil and gas extraction, data showed on Friday.

Gross domestic product climbed 0.3 percent, as expected, compared with a 0.1 percent contraction in July.

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Global manufacturing shows signs of strength

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Manufacturing growth in India and China powered ahead last month and U.S. industry also picked up steam, according to data on Monday that suggested the global economic recovery may be on firmer footing.

Two surveys of Chinese executives showed broad-based strength in the manufacturing sector, helping to lift natural resource stocks and commodity prices as investors anticipated strong demand from the world`s second-largest economy.

In the United States, where the Federal Reserve is widely

expected to announce this week that it will counter a sluggish economy by buying long-dated Treasury debt, the manufacturing sector unexpectedly grew at its fastest pace since May, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

"It is clear that stronger growth overseas and the weakening of the U.S. dollar has provided a significant boost to U.S. manufacturers," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International in New York.

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Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia shifts up to $70-$90 price range

SINGAPORE - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia on Monday shifted upwards from a price it has backed for around two years, saying oil at between $70 and $90 a barrel was comfortable for consumers.

Until now, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi had said the ideal range for producers and consumers was $70-$80 a barrel, either side of the $75 identified by the kingdom in November 2008.

"Consumers are looking for oil prices around $70, but hopefully less than $90," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in comments following a speech in Singapore. "There`s almost an anchor now for the price."

In response to Naimi`s comments, oil prices rallied and hit a session high of $83.86 a barrel.

For much of this year, international benchmark U.S. crude had largely stuck to the $70-$80 range but has broken above the top of that bracket in the past month, led higher by a weak U.S. dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities relatively cheap.

Naimi described the oil price environment as still "very decent."

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Condos good investment opportunities for 2011: Report

Condominiums and greenbelt space will provide among the best investment opportunities in Canadian real estate next year, with the overall outlook remaining positive as long as U.S. woes don`t spill over the border, a report found.

It may also be the time to consider selling low-yielding assets in favour of buying properties in the U.S. as the market there recovers, the report by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute found.

Apartments, if any are available, offer the best security, it said. Investors should also look for underperforming retail or commercial space to redevelop as condos as Canadian cities grow vertically, it said.

A separate report by RE/MAX released on Monday found condos are the number one choice for first time home buyers as the price of a detached home is unaffordable.

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Risks to Canadian outlook intensifying: IMF

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty welcomed an International Monetary Fund report on Monday, which said risks to the economic outlook in Canada are intensifying despite its position as the most fiscally stable country in the G7.

"The IMF expects that Canada will continue to lead the major advanced economies in average economic growth over the next two years thanks to Canada`s Economic Action Plan," Flaherty said in a release.

But the report by the IMF`s Mission Chief for Canada Charles Kramer also noted the pace of Canada`s economic expansion has slowed in recent months.

"Meanwhile, risks to the outlook are rising, including from stretched household balance sheets in Canada and housing market fragilities in the United States," he said.

Although Canadian corporate tax cuts and infrastructure spending bode well for the economy in the medium-term, constrained growth in healthcare spending is an essential ingredient to fiscal stability in the long-term, Kramer said.

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Agrium profit climbs on nutrient demand, pricing

TORONTO — Agrium Inc. said on Wednesday its third-quarter profit more than doubled, as the recent strengthening in grain prices helped boost both demand and pricing for fertilizers.

The crop nutrient maker and farm products retailer said its quarterly profit rose to $57 million, or 37 cents a share in the quarter that ended Sept. 30. That compared with a year-ago profit of $26 million, or 16 cents a share.

Excluding stock-based compensation expenses and other one-time items, the company said earnings were $111 million, or 70 cents a share.

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First home likely to be a lofty affair

The dream of home ownership is no longer pie-in-the sky, it`s just up in the air. Literally.

The crux of a Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada report released this week reveals Canadians have stopped dreaming of "white picket fences" and are now focused on "funky loft apartments."

But even the real estate company had to admit in its press release that this desire to live in condominiums is principally being driven by the fact that`s all many people can afford the first time they dip their toes into the housing market.

"As one of the few affordable housing options available to first-time buyers, the concept is poised for dramatic growth in years to come," said Michael Polzler, the executive vice-president of the company.

The condo market has become part of the urban landscape with one in every three homes sold in the Greater Toronto Area falling into the category. Even in small centres like Halifax, the condo has become a significant chunk of the housing market.

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Where the rich can go when they need a loan

Scotiabank has stolen the march on its rivals in the race to provide simplified lending to the 1.1 million Canadian families with net worths of $1-million. Scotia Private Client Group has formally announced a program that`s been in the pilot stage since April: 200 affluent clients already use its Total Wealth Credit Solution.

In an apparent first, clients get consolidated views of all financial assets held at different parts of the bank, then borrow on the combined collateral value. This might include non-registered investments held at full service broker unit ScotiaMc-Leod or discount brokerage Scotia iTRADE, GICs held at retail branches, a principal residence or recreational property and the cash surrender value of insurance policies.

Head of private banking Andrew Wright says clients want the flexibility to borrow quickly when opportunities arise: whether in temporary dips in the stock market or when bargains arise in real estate or business.

Wright says it was inspired by Brett Wilson, chairman of Canoe Financial and lead deal-maker on Dragon`s Den, the venture capital reality TV show. Wilson says entrepreneurs need uncomplicated, convenient access to integrated but flexible credit platforms.

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