October 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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#21
The cost of a strong dollar and a week demand




Few people had ever heard of the Baltic Dry Index before the 2008 financial crisis, when it became a scary barometer of a global economy hitting the skids.





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#22
Canadian jobs growth not as impressive as it seems




Canadian economic data has a habit of giving, then taking away.




A string of upbeat numbers can just as easily be followed by an equally disappointing report. Nowhere are these swings more pronounced than in the labour market.




Statistics Canada delivered some of that good news again on Friday, saying 52,100 jobs were created in September - five times more jobs than economists had expected.




September is the second consecutive month to show blow-away employment growth, after 34,300 new jobs were added in August. In both cases, economists had only pencilled in gains of about 10,000.





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#23
Canada surprises with 52,000 new jobs in September




Canada's economy added 52,000 jobs in September, but the unemployment rate ticked higher to 7.4 per cent because more people were looking for work.




The gain was more than the roughly 10,000 new jobs that economists polled by Bloomberg were expecting.




Statistics Canada said Friday that full-time work made up most of the gains, with a net 44,100 new positions added.




"We`re encouraged to see 52,000 more Canadians working in September and 820,000 net new jobs created since July 2009," Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in a statement.





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Ally

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#24
Home alone



Census data from last month reveal a trend that should come as little surprise to many baby boomers:





Canada's 20-something demographic is failing to launch.





You don't have to tell that to the parents of the thousands of late-20-something Canadians -- about one in four of them -- still living at home.





It's not that these young adults are listless layabouts. Instead, the more likely scenario these days is they're living at home so they can save for their future.





And many aren't waiting for the love of their life to come along before taking the plunge into home ownership. A good number are going it on their own, says Farhaneh Haque, director of mortgage advice at TD Canada Trust in Toronto.





"You don't have to look very hard," she says. "There are a lot of single young people in the market."





According to TD's own research, about 55 per cent of men and 30 per cent of women buy their first home on their own.





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Ally

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#25
Housing starts fall less than expected in September




TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian housing starts slowed in September on declines in the apartment and condo market, but the fall was not as sharp as expected, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp data showed on Tuesday.




Analysts said the market will likely cool further.




Housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 220,215 units in September. That was down from 225,328 units in August but still well above forecasts for a drop to 207,500, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.




The August figure was revised up from 224,900 units reported previously.





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Ally

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#26
New hints of a 'soft landing' for housing market as construction hums along





You can`t build this many houses forever. At some point you have to stop; the question is when.




We now know builders did not pull the plug on new-home construction in September. Housing starts were down modestly from August, but still well above what we actually need ` causing more than one economist to predict an upcoming slowdown.




`In our view, Canada still has overbuilding concerns,` said Francis Fong, an economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank. `The level of household formation does not support the level of construction activity that we are seeing each month.





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Ally

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#27
IMF slashes Canadian GDP forecast




Elevated home prices and high debt levels pose the biggest risk to the Canadian economy, the International Monetary Fund says in its most recent World Economic Outlook report.




The IMF is lowering its forecasts for Canadian GDP growth to 1.9 percent in 2012 and 2 percent next year -- down from 2.1 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, from its previous forecast.




"An important domestic vulnerability in Canada relates to the housing market. A sharp or sustained decline in house prices could seriously set back the leveraged household sector and domestic demand," the bank said. "In Canada, the key priority is to ensure that risks from the housing sector and increases in household debt remain well contained and do not create financial sector vulnerabilities."





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Ally

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#28
West to continue as driving force of Canadian economy, bank report says




CALGARY ` Canada`s economic growth is being driven by resource-rich Western provinces, according to a Bank of Montreal report released Tuesday.




Alberta leads the pack, with the bank predicting 3.5 per cent real GDP growth this year, falling back a bit to 2.9 per cent in 2013.




`The energy sector remains the key driver of economic activity in the province, with crude bitumen production up 16 per cent year-over-year through the first half of the year, and the Energy Resources Conservation Board expecting oilsands output to more than double by 2021,` said economist Robert Kavcic.





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Ally

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#29
Canada's job gains soar past expectations




OTTAWA ` Canada`s economy created five times more jobs than expected in September, the second consecutive monthly gain, thanks mainly to a surprisingly big jump in full-time positions.




About 52,100 people found work last month, following an increase of 34,300 in August. The unemployment rate edged up to 7.4%, from 7.3% a month earlier, as more people got back into the labour market in search of work.





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Ally

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#30
Interest rates will rise over medium term




OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada's second in command is continuing to suggest that interest rates will rise over the medium term even as economists say turmoil in Europe and a weak recovery in the U.S. are taking their toll on Canada.




In a speech in Winnipeg, deputy governor Tiff Macklem repeated Thursday an earlier statement by the central bank. Notes on the speech were released in Ottawa.




"To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the two per cent inflation target over the medium term," Macklem said.



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Ally

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#31
Housing debt takes a back seat to car loans in Canada




EDMONTON - Real estate is no longer the hulking villain driving Canadians deeper into debt. The new bad guys on the block are the automobile loan and its sidekick, impulse buying that costs the average Canadian $3,720 per year.




TransUnion credit bureau reports that the average Canadian`s non-mortgage debt of $26,221 in the second quarter of 2012 was the most since it started tracking the figure in 2004. While credit card and line of credit debt was down year-over-year, automobile debt soared 13.2 per cent during the period, for an overall rise of 2.4 per cent in total non-mortgage debt. Alberta was in the middle among provinces in terms of auto debt delinquencies.





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#32
Markets, economists enthused as Canada and U.S. report strong job gains




OTTAWA - Canada's domestic economy turned in one of the strongest job creation months of the year in September, adding an eye-popping 52,100 new jobs that was five times more than economists expected.




But it was the labour data south of the border, which suggest the U.S. recovery is finally underway, that demanded the attention of economists and markets





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Ally

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#33
Global slowdown making its way to Canada




Trade figures released on Thursday are the latest sign that Canada is not immune to the global economic slowdown, according to a number of economists.




The trade deficit fell more than expected in August, dipping to $1.32 billion from $2.53 billion in July, according to Statistics Canada. But the shrinking deficit was largely a result of falling imports, rather than a surge in exports.




The value of imports dropped 3.1 percent to $38.79 billion in August, with declines reported in every sector except energy. Exports, meanwhile, fell just 0.1 percent to $37.47 billion, with the largest decline in the industrial goods and materials sector.





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Ally

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#34
National GDP increases slightly




The Canadian economy expanded slightly in July led by the manufacturing and utilities industry, while construction activity decreased.




Statistics Canada recently reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2 per cent in July, after edging up 0.1 per cent in June.





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Ally

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#35
Help bail out Eurozone? Forget it: We've got our own debt woes




When Angela Merkel, the Ger-man chancellor, made her visit to Ottawa last week, almost the first words out of her mouth were a demand that Canada help fund the bailout of the eurozone.




Prime Minister Stephen Harper said no. Rightly so, too.




The next 12 months will be filled with demands that Canada throw its money at problems in other countries. It's a path we should resist.




Citibank published a research report this week indicating which countries would be able to hold onto their AAA credit ratings in the next year. It's a very short list, and we head it. There were no prospects that the United States could hold its AA+ as is, much less return to AAA status. Nor Japan (AA-) or most of Europe (only Ger-many and the Scandinavian countries have solid prospects). Britain (still AAA despite its horrendous debt and deficit issues) was expected to cling to its rating as well, although frankly that seems self-serving on the bank's part.





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Ally

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#36
What are the jobs of the future? To be honest, we don't really know






The problem with predicting the future is that the odds of being right are infinitesimal. There are simply too many variables. Recall, for example, that BusinessWeek proclaimed in 1968 that Japanese cars would not carve out a big share of the U.S. auto market, or the announcement by the International Monetary Fund in 1959 that `in all likelihood, world inflation is over.`




Time magazine forecast global cooling in 1975, a one-term presidency for Bill Clinton in 1992 and dismissed what would become ecommerce in 1966 because, it said, `women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their mind.`




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Ally

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#37
Canada's building boom leaves labour pool dry




As money across the country pours into building everything from navy ships in Halifax to condos in Toronto to oil upgraders in northern Alberta, Canadians will have to ditch the traditional, clichà image of the North American construction worker.




Economists for the Construction Sector Council predict that Canada will create 111,000 new construction jobs by 2019, while 208,000 workers will retire, creating `unprecedented demand` on the labour workforce, says the president of the national construction association.





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Ally

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#38
Canada's job growth not as impressive as it seems




Canadian economic data has a habit of giving, then taking away.




A string of upbeat numbers can just as easily be followed by an equally disappointing report. Nowhere are these swings more pronounced than in the labour market.




Statistics Canada delivered some of that good news again on Friday, saying 52,100 jobs were created in September - five times more jobs than economists had expected.





Read the full article here.
 

Ally

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#39
Housing market peers over the edge




Housing markets across Canada - with the exception of Calgary - are continuing to soften, even as the fall sales season kicks off.




Figures to be released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association are expected to show falling sales in most major cities in September, with Vancouver leading the decline. September's decrease in sales comes on the heels of a 5.8-per-cent monthly drop from July to August.





The data are being monitored closely by policy makers in Ottawa, who are attempting to steer the market toward a soft landing. To that end, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightened mortgage insurance rules in July to slow demand for homes. But it's a tricky balancing act, and some real estate players fear Vancouver's market, in particular, might now be cooling too quickly.





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Ally

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#40
What the U.S. elections mean for Canada







Former US Ambassador and current UofT chancellor Michael Wilson addressed a packed Hart House Great Hall last night on the issues of US-Canada relations and the upcoming presidential elections below the border.









From his experience as ambassador to the US under both the Bush and Obama administrations, Wilson concludes that Canada has one of the best connections to the US in the world. As he was told by other ambassadors, `We are the envy of practically every country.`








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