- Joined
- Sep 14, 2007
- Messages
- 617
Here is a great doc from RBC.....I love the way they actually forcast!http://http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/fmm.pdf
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/fmm.pdf
Global economy - prognosis improving
The global economy remains in rough shape with data on second quarter activity showing some improvement but not enough to signal the end of the recession. Importantly, however, the tenor of economic forecasts has changed and after a period of persistent downward revisions to the growth outlook, projections are being nudged up. Even the Federal Reserve in its June policy statement sounded slightly more upbeat adding emphasis to its view that the economy’s contraction is showing signs of slowing. International agencies, like the OECD and IMF, have upgraded their 2010 growth forecasts. And, global economic activity, as measured by ISM indices for manufacturing and service sector companies, is showing improvement with the all-industry measure hitting its highest level since August 2008 in June.
We have not changed our growth forecasts and still look for a recovery to take hold later this yearand build momentum in 2010. We expect central banks to keep monetary policy accommodative and forecast longer-term interest rates, which came under upward pressure in the second quarter as riskier assets classes rallied, will trade to the lower end of their recent ranges, as the recovery proves slower and more volatile than recent price action suggests.
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/fmm.pdf
Global economy - prognosis improving
The global economy remains in rough shape with data on second quarter activity showing some improvement but not enough to signal the end of the recession. Importantly, however, the tenor of economic forecasts has changed and after a period of persistent downward revisions to the growth outlook, projections are being nudged up. Even the Federal Reserve in its June policy statement sounded slightly more upbeat adding emphasis to its view that the economy’s contraction is showing signs of slowing. International agencies, like the OECD and IMF, have upgraded their 2010 growth forecasts. And, global economic activity, as measured by ISM indices for manufacturing and service sector companies, is showing improvement with the all-industry measure hitting its highest level since August 2008 in June.
We have not changed our growth forecasts and still look for a recovery to take hold later this yearand build momentum in 2010. We expect central banks to keep monetary policy accommodative and forecast longer-term interest rates, which came under upward pressure in the second quarter as riskier assets classes rallied, will trade to the lower end of their recent ranges, as the recovery proves slower and more volatile than recent price action suggests.