September 2007 Market Research

[BMironov]

Toronto Star:Bank of Canada may cut rates, says Scotiabank (Sep 28, 2007)
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/261529

QUOTE Slower growth, lower interest rates and a strong Canadian dollar will be the key economic trends into 2008, according to the latest forecast from Scotia Economics.

Its latest Global Outlook report says a U.S. Federal Reserve decision to cut interest rates has put U.S. monetary policy out of sync with the more cautious stance in Canada, Europe and Japan.
...
However, with the loonie trading close to parity against the U.S. dollar and exports dampened by weakening trends in the United States, the central bank may opt to cut rates by half a percentage point around year end.

Scotia Economics report
Global Outlook (Fall 2007)
http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/bnsglobe.pdf

 

[BMironov]

Statistics Canada (Sep 28, 2007)http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/070928/d070928.pdf
Gross domestic product by industry
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/070928/d070928a.htm

Overall growth July 2006 - July 2007 is 2.5%

Crude oil and natural gas: Supply and disposition
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/070928/d070928c.htm

QUOTE In July, the overall production of crude oil and equivalent hydrocarbons reached 13.5 million cubic metres, an increase of 3.9% compared with July 2006.

Exports of crude oil and equivalent hydrocarbons advanced 2.7% compared with July 2006. In July 2007, 65.7% of Canada`s total production went to the export market.

Natural gas domestic sales dipped to 3.7 billion cubic metres, a 9.7% decrease from July 2006 according to natural gas sales data. This drop was the result of a 12.3% decrease in industrial gas sales.

Marketable natural gas production declined 2.9% from July 2006. Natural gas exports, which made up 66.1% of marketable natural gas, decreased 2.0%.

if you wonder how many chicks in farms we have, the answer is
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/070928/d070928f.htm
(58.9 million birds - 7.0% increase from August 2006)

 

[BMironov]

CIBC World Markets:Dodging Innovation (Sep 28, 2007) by Benjamin Tal
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public...ad/sep28_07.pdf

QUOTE It seems that Mr Dodge is not a fan of mortgage innovation. In recent comments he warned that they help overheat the Canadian real estate market. And who can blame him given the experience south of the border? In the eyes of many, the meltdown of the US subprime market has painted the mortgage market in black and white: Plain vanilla mortgages—good, all the rest—bad.
...
But what’s missing from the discussion is the fact that exotic mortgages in the US existed well before 2004—and back then the market was functioning just fi ne. What triggered the current diffi culties in the US mortgage market was not the existence of exotic mortgages, but their overuse.
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In Canada the exotic mortgage market that Mr. Dodge is so concerned about is still in its infancy.
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Another innovation that Dodge is concerned about is the recent use of mortgages with long-term amortizations.

 

[BMironov]

Royal LePageUnwavering Demand Supports Rising Canadian House Prices in Third Quarter (Sep 27, 2007)
http://www.royallepage.ca/CMSTemplates/Abo...te.aspx?id=1591

QUOTE Canada`s resale housing market remained on solid ground during the third quarter as high consumer confidence, strong employment rates and stable interest rates led to robust buyer demand prompting average house prices to rise in all major markets, year-over-year, according to a House Price Survey report released today by Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
...
“Much like the Canadian dollar, the Canadian housing market is charting its own course, quite independent from the United States and its currency and housing climate. The strength of the Canadian dollar, and the fact that the country is adjusting well to its value, will continue to keep interest rates at their existing low-to-moderate levels, boding well for buyers looking to enter the market,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “From coast-to-coast, the country`s rich commodity markets have had tremendous impact on local economies, and there is no indication that this will change anytime soon.”

National Price Chart:
http://docs.rlpnetwork.com/hps/Q3-2007-HPS_DataChart.pdf

Famous "Survey of Canadian House Prices" reports for last few years are available at:
http://www.royallepage.ca/CMSTemplates/Ask...ate.aspx?id=361

 

[BMironov]

Financial PostFederal surplus already $7.8 billion in new fiscal year (Sep 28, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financi...e70&k=26219

QUOTE The federal Department of Finance said Friday that Ottawa is running a $7.8-billion surplus for the first four months of the current fiscal year -- more than halfway to equalling the whopping $14.2-billion windfall recorded for the last fiscal year.

A 25 per cent surge in corporate tax revenue is largely responsible for the four-month windfall, according to the latest issue of the department`s monthly publication, the Fiscal Monitor.
...
On the whole, revenue for Ottawa increased 6.5 per cent, to $80.5 billion.

That climb in revenue was nearly matched by a boost in program spending. Program expenses jumped 6.4 per cent, to $61.2 billion, reflecting an increase in transfer payments, and the operating budgets of federal departments and agencies.

Fiscal Monitor:
http://www.fin.gc.ca/FISCMON/pdf/2007-07e.pdf

P.S. By law, the surplus will be used to pay down the federal government`s accumulated debt, which will have dropped to $467.3 billion as of March 31 of this year.

 

[BMironov]

Edmonton Journal:Inflation erodes salaries for majority, Albertans told (Sep 30, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news...2ef&k=21399

Lucky ones bought homes before boom

QUOTE When you factor in the rate of inflation, in many cases the average Albertan is actually making less money in real dollars today than he or she was a decade ago.

"I think it`s that you feel like, well maybe I`m just unlucky. My neighbours are getting the new Hummers, I`m just somehow missing the boat. I think it`s partly lack of understanding,"

But personally, (when surveyed) the majority of people say they`re worse off," Gibson said."I think it`s that you feel like, well maybe I`m just unlucky. My neighbours are getting the new Hummers, I`m just somehow missing the boat. I think it`s partly lack of understanding," she explained. "That`s why we put these figures together to say no, you are not alone. You are not the exception, you are the rule. Your feelings of being screwed are valid.

If you bought your house pre-boom and you`re wages have gone up, you`re probably winning, McMillan said. But if you`re renting or you bought your house during the boom you`re probably losing even if you`re getting higher wages, because you`re spending a lot more to keep a roof over your head.

It seems that many REIN members feel "lucky" these days.