September 2012 B.C. Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

We're (not) number one!




Following Statistics Canada's release of the August Labour Force Survey (LFS) figures, jobs Minister Pat Bell issued an incorrectly titled news release, promoting B.C. from third to first spot in Aug. 2011 to Aug. 2012 job creation. His claim was promptly spread through Twitter by many BC Liberal MLAs and their supporters.




The trick Bell used was to rank provincial job growth by absolute numbers rather than by percentage growth, hence with its larger population B.C. would almost always outrank the smaller provinces. When percentage job growth is considered B.C.'s 2.3 per cent job growth between Aug. 2011 and Aug. 2012 is less than Saskatchewan's 3.6 per cent or Newfoundland and Labrador's 3.1 per cent.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Signs abundant for an upswing in Kamloops



Let us not jump to conclusions, but there are signs out there that the world as we in Kamloops know it is not going to end quite yet.





It's tempting, as we view the economic troubles in Europe and the pessimistic prognostications of the experts, to be fearful that we'll be swept into the maelstrom of decline.



Indeed, a realistic approach is a good thing, yet our part of the world churns along doing pretty well.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Vancouver approves new Secured Rental Housing Policy





Vancouver, like other Metro Vancouver municipalities, is scrambling to accommodate the 52 per cent of residents who rent their home.



The situation is expected to worsen given that 40,000 newcomers or about 18,600 households arrive each year, and of these, 6,500 households are renters. Since 2007, less than 1,000 rental units per year have been built in Metro Vancouver.



Former program



In 2009, to help address the problem, the City created the Short Term Incentives for Rental (STIR) program, which ran until December 2011.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Provincial deficit blamed on gas price drop



Low natural gas prices are shouldering the blame for the projected $1.14 billion deficit that British Columbia is facing in 2012-13.







Although land sales for natural gas exploration and production are also down, the main cause of the bulging deficit, according to the Ministry of Finance, is a natural gas price that is predicted to average just $1.41 per thousand cubic feet (mmcf) in 2013, not the $2.52 per mmcf noted in the original forecast or the $2.12 per mmcf mentioned in private sector forecasts





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

BC housing market continues to cool





VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - The housing market continues to cool -- especially in BC -- according to an industry group.







According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, nationwide home sales were down 8.9 per cent in August from a year earlier and 5.8 per cent from July. As a result, the group has lowered its sales and price forecasts for the rest of this year and 2013.







CREA says that since its last forecast "mortgage regulations were tightened further, activity in Ontario softened, and the slowdown of sales activity in British Columbia deepened."







Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

B.C., First Nation sign a deal aimed at fast-tracking natural gas exports





VANCOUVER - The B.C. government has struck a deal with the Haisla First Nation that the province says could help fast track a liquefied natural gas plant near Kitimat.


The agreement would allow the purchase or lease of land that will enable the Haisla to work with the industry to develop both the plant and an export terminal on Douglas Channel.


Aboriginal Relations Minister Ida Chong says the deal is the key to unlocking a whole new natural gas export industry in B.C.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

B.C. housing slowdown signals wider slump



As he drives through Kitsilano in Vancouver`s coveted westside district, real estate agent Chris Frederickson points out the For Sale signs, block after block.





Of 62 active listings, only three homes have sold over the past 30 days in Kitsilano, underscoring the slowdown in residential sales that has hit Canada`s most expensive city for housing. In Greater Vancouver, the number of residential units sold tumbled to 1,670 last month, down 31 per cent from August, 2011.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

BC Real Estate: You can't burst a bubble that wasn't there





Sagging home sales and flat ­prices have prompted speculation that the `housing bubble` might be about to burst ` a prospect that immediately catches the attention of British Columbians.




But there is no housing bubble, according to Tsur Somerville, director of the University of B.C.`s Centre for Urban Economics in the Sauder School of Business.




`You can`t burst a bubble that wasn`t there,` said Somerville. `But you can have prices above where they should be and it not be a ­bubble.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

NDP's Dix tells business leaders he would raise their taxes





Business tax increases are `a reality` if the New Democratic Party wins the next B.C. election, says party leader Adrian Dix.




Mr. Dix delivered the message at the least-welcoming forum he could find ` a sold-out crowd of business leaders who paid to listen to the politician who could be the province`s next premier.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Investing in the Peace



Rich Coleman didn`t simply drop by the 2012 Dawson Creek Energy Conference on Thursday, September 20 to grab lunch, say a few kind words about the petroleum sector and proclaim Oil and Gas Week in British Columbia.





The Minister of Energy, Mines and Natural Gas also had money on his mind, announcing the eleventh installment of the Infrastructure Royalty Credit Program, which consists of $120 million in royalty relief to encourage new infrastructure projects in the northeast corner of the province





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Poor fleeing costly B.C.





Vancouver and British Columbia are often cited as being among the best places in the world to live.




But lately, it appears a growing number of British Columbians aren't buying it. Recent numbers from BC Stats reveal that nearly 2,600 people left B.C. and moved to other provinces in the first quarter of 2012 - up from 1,900 just one year earlier.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

200,000 senior rental units needed by 2036





VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - Will renters, especially seniors, will able to keep a roof over their head in 2036?







According to projections from the BC Non-Profit Housing Association at least 200,000 rental units are needed province-wide within the next 25 years.







Research Director Jill Atkey says many seniors right now are not living in affordable housing.







Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

B.C. house prices dropping, will drop further: Conference Board




Out of 28 Canadian residential real-estate markets, the only areas where prices fell year-over-year were in B.C. ` Victoria (-9.9%); Vancouver (-8.8%) and the Fraser Valley (-5%), according to a Conference Board of Canada report released yesterday.




Those three regions are also the only ones in Canada where the board expects further price depreciation in the next year.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Endangered fish species the latest obstacle for Northern Gateway pipeline





One of the most powerful foes of the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline through northern British Columbia is not a lawyer or a conservation group or any of the many First Nations who have lined up against the project.




It`s a very large, very, very old fish.




The Nechako white sturgeon is listed as an endangered species under the federal Species At Risk Act, a designation which is supposed to legally protect the sturgeon`s habitat so the species can recover.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

A shortage of workers could mean slower growth in BC





The next decade is almost certain to be difficult for B.C. employers trying to recruit more skilled workers, and mining companies say they`ll need to hire between 13,000 and 16,000 of them.




To which I`d add, 13,000 to 16,000 if they`re lucky. More if they`re not.




The B.C. Mining HR Task Force, which came up with those estimates in a report released on Wednesday, relied on conservative estimates and historical migration and employment patterns to make its 10-year forecast. Yet I, for one, wouldn`t be surprised to see a near-perfect storm assail B.C.`s labour market, especially when it comes to skilled trades.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Consumer confidence soars in BC





Consumer confidence is soaring in British Columbia, with the province recording the biggest improvement in Canada this month, according to a Conference Board of Canada report released Wednesday.




Nationally, the Ottawa-based economic forecaster said its index of consumer confidence increased 6.7 points to 82.2.




But the biggest spike was in B.C., where the index jumped 24.7 points to 110.8, indicating B.C. consumers are the most confident in more than a year.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Metro Vancouver prices remain high as home sales slow







Metro Vancouver realtors saw their second-slowest August for residential property sales since 1998, but prices are relatively stable, the region's main real estate board reported Wednesday.




"We've seen a slowdown in the market in terms of the number of transactions, but there's relative price stability," Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver president Eugen Klein said.




Detached housing prices were relatively flat in August compared with a year ago, while the condo market has declined by one per cent, and townhomes down almost two per cent.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Metro Vancouver commercial real estate sales reach record $1.42 billion





Commercial real estate transactions in Metro Vancouver reached an unprecedented six-month total of $1.42 billion during the first half of 2012, breaking the previous record of $1.03 billion set during the first half of 2010, according to a report released Wednesday.




The figures point to a longer-term surge and confidence in commercial land investments, experts say, but belie anxiety over diminishing industrial land availability as it gives way to more apartments and office towers.




`One of the things that is striking about (the high sales numbers), and I think is probably driving a lot of the activity, is really the commercial side,` said Tsur Somerville, director at the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C.




Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Shell Canada to go ahead with Kitimat LNG projects despite billion-dollar Chinese gas investment





Royal Dutch Shell`s decision to invest $1 billion a year in shale gas exploration in China has not changed Shell Canada`s plans to build a liquefied natural gas terminal at Kitimat aimed at the Chinese market.




Despite China`s potential for shale gas production, demand there is expected to outstrip supply, Shell Canada said Tuesday in a statement.




`The exploration and development of shale gas is expected to grow in China and Shell`s investments, largely with PetroChina, are reflective of that growth,` Shell Canada spokesman Stephen Doolan said. `However, the demand for energy in China and throughout Asia is expected to exceed domestic production.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Refinery would strengthen BC and Canada





Our consortium, Kitimat Clean Ltd., filed an environmental assessment application on Sept. 21 to build an oil refinery in Kitimat, the first such refinery to be built in Canada since 1984.




Why am I proceeding with this $13-billion project? Simply put, this is a nation-building idea that will work and is in the interests of both Canada and British Columbia. Construction will employ 6,000 workers for five years. Permanent employment to operate the refinery will be 3,000. Hundreds of millions of dollars of new tax revenues will flow to government every year. This one refinery will generate $2 billion of exports every month and will reverse our negative balance of trade. The business case is strong. The naysayers are wrong.






Read the full article here.