September`s YOY Housing Price Index, 2008

Jack

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#1
Percentage Change in House Prices, September `07 - September `0801) Regina: 22.7
02) St. John`s: 22.7
03) Halifax: 7.0
04) Winnipeg: 6.2
05) Quebec: 6.1
06) Saskatoon: 5.5
07) Greater Sudbury & Thunder Bay: 4.9
08) Montreal: 4.8
09) Ottawa-Gatineau: 4.3
10) St. Catharines-Niagara: 4.2
11) Toronto & Oshawa: 3.0
12) London: 2.9
13) Hamilton: 2.8
14) Saint John, Fredericton, & Moncton: 2.5
15) Kitchener: 1.9
16) Vancouver: 1.4
17) Windsor: 1.0
18) Charlottetown: 0.9
19) Victoria: 0.2
20) Calgary
: (1.2)
21) Edmonton
: (5.8)
 

Jack

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#2
What does this mean?

Well, one might think that it would be a great time to buy in both Calgary & Edmonton, as prices have come down, yet in-migration to the province has increased more than anywhere in Canada, and income growth is second only to Saskatchewan`s.

It might also suggest that some research into the bedroom communities of both Regina & St. John`s should be done to see if they`ve benefitted yet from the ripple effect of the each respective city`s real estate boom. If they haven`t, perhaps there are some "arbitrage" opportunities in both areas.
 

pjrein

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#3
I personally think it just means YAY it`s time to buy in Calgary and Edmonton! I don`t think there will be a ripple effect in SK because the fundamentals weren`t there for the boom in the first place, so I think it will just adjust back and not ripple. While I don`t have any rental properties yet I understand that if you had a positive cash flow property already, and you`re in for the longer term, then a slight down year won`t effect you. Then for newbies like me I`m very happy to have the time to be able to analyse properties, without 20 offers in front of me in a hot market frenzy, and for the prices to be more affordable. Also they are just averages so there are still properties in both Calgary and Edmonton that have still gone up.

Jocasta
 

Jack

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#4
QUOTE I don`t think there will be a ripple effect in SK because the fundamentals weren`t there for the boom in the first place, so I think it will just adjust back and not ripple.

The fundamentals weren`t there? Really? No food, fuel, or fertilizer in Saskatchewan?
style_emoticons


Almost everybody is forecasting them as the top performer for 2009 in terms of % GDP growth. Like Alberta, they`ve got oil, but they`ve also got potash & uranium, which provides some nice diversification. Who knows where they`d be right now if their government actually chose to put in some infrastructure way back when to help with oil extraction. And with the cost of doing business becoming too high in AB, SK looks to benefit even more.

Fundamentally, they`re a strong province.
 
Jan 13, 2008
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#5
What bedroom communities of Regina? I honestly don`t know what they are. I mean, Calgary has Airdrie, Balzac, Cochrane, High River, and Okotoks to name a few. Edmonton has St.Albert, Devon, Sherwood Park, Ft.Saskatchewan, Leduc, Nisku, Stony Plain, Spruce Grove and Beaumont to name a few more. Some of Toronto`s bedrooms are bigger than Regina. Montreal ditto.

Moose Jaw is 70 Km down the road from Regina.

I don`t know much about the geography of that part of Sask but in terms of Saskatoon there aren`t too many ATTRACTIVE towns around it. Having been to Purdue and Biggar on numerous occasions I can attest to that. I think there`s more to being a bedroom community than proximity. many of these tiny sask towns still have natural ice arenas.

Does Sask have a bright future? I`d say so, but I think Don`s right that prices are a little out of line with reality.

zander


QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 10 2008, 06:58 PM) What does this mean?

Well, one might think that it would be a great time to buy in both Calgary & Edmonton, as prices have come down, yet in-migration to the province has increased more than anywhere in Canada, and income growth is second only to Saskatchewan`s.

It might also suggest that some research into the bedroom communities of both Regina & St. John`s should be done to see if they`ve benefitted yet from the ripple effect of the each respective city`s real estate boom. If they haven`t, perhaps there are some "arbitrage" opportunities in both areas.
 

joe123

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Aug 31, 2008
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#6
I have family in Saskatoon... They say many "used to be" Albertans are coming back to Alberta.. Edmonton especially. They say the number of Alberta License plates has dropped significantly. Yet I`ve noticed more and more sask license plates here in edmonton. Anyone else see this trend? I know Sask has the resources in the ground, but getting them out etc. is another story. Wages still have very far to go to compare with the living standard of Alberta. My $0.02 is that people seem to be waking up to the fact that Sask is overpriced now, and chosing Alberta again. House for house the price difference is not that much, but I now my wage is 30% more here in Edmonton.
 

pjrein

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#7
QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 10 2008, 11:50 PM) The fundamentals weren`t there? Really? No food, fuel, or fertilizer in Saskatchewan?
style_emoticons


Almost everybody is forecasting them as the top performer for 2009 in terms of % GDP growth. Like Alberta, they`ve got oil, but they`ve also got potash & uranium, which provides some nice diversification. Who knows where they`d be right now if their government actually chose to put in some infrastructure way back when to help with oil extraction. And with the cost of doing business becoming too high in AB, SK looks to benefit even more.

Fundamentally, they`re a strong province.

Should have specified the fundamentals that I was referring to which are migration, employment, and wages. They all need to be present as well to make it as strong as AB.
style_emoticons


Jocasta
 

Jack

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#8
QUOTE Should have specified the fundamentals that I was referring to which are migration, employment, and wages. They all need to be present as well to make it as strong as AB.

For net-migration, they were third in Canada in 2007, behind only B.C. (15,520) and Alberta (9,921), gaining 7,639 new residents during the calendar year. As at 2Q08, they`re also in third, behind only Alberta (6,730) and B.C. (1,669) again, with 1,107 new residents. So I`d say they`re doing well in that category.

Their rate of unemployment sits at 4.1%, behind only Alberta`s at 3.8%. Same goes for participation rate, second only to AB`s.

Finally, on wages, SK has experienced the biggest YOY percentage growth in Canada. Their average weekly earnings are relatively low, given their low unemployment rate and tight labour market, so I`d actually expect those to continue to rise at a greater pace than the rest of the country`s, right on par with Alberta.

As for it being "too expensive" to live there, how can any resident of Alberta or B.C. say that?!? Their real estate is trading at a lot less times-earnings and the CPI in AB is higher than anywhere else in Canada; meaning that it costs more for your food, for your shelter, for your utilities, for your entertainment...etc., etc., etc.

On Regina`s bedroom communities, I`d check out Regina Beach. A good friend of mine used to rent out my basement, and he was always talking about moving back there (Regina is his hometown) and buying a place in Regina Beach, where he said it was cheaper, it was a really nice lake community, and it was only about 15 minutes north of Regina. I haven`t looked into this at all, just going by what he said. But you`ve gotta think that there are some
bedroom-esque communities in each city, and if they`ve not experienced the same or a similar upward spike in values over this past year, there could be a great buying opportunity.
 

MikeMcCrae

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Sep 3, 2007
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Leduc, Ab.
#9
Saskatchewan has a good government right now but the socialist mentality runs deep. Will they continue to elect progressive governments in the future? Only time will tell. I stiill say it`s investment in Alberta and speculation in Saskatchewan.
 
Jan 13, 2008
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Edmonton
#11
Funny, just after posting on this thread and I heard that a guy I know is moving to Regina and living in a suburb or bedroom. There must be some there no doubt.

As for housing affordability, it can`t be that great of a deal in Regina and Saskatoon given that average prices are close to Edmonton, yet incomes far behind. Does anyone know what`s happened to prices in the bigger towns Yorkton, Kindersley, Weyburn, Moose Jaw etc.? Has the appreciation been as drastic as the larger centers?

When you say Sask RE is trading at less times-earnings than AB do you mean the price of a given piece of RE is lower in relation to it`s rental earning?

QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 11 2008, 09:56 AM) For net-migration, they were third in Canada in 2007, behind only B.C. (15,520) and Alberta (9,921), gaining 7,639 new residents during the calendar year. As at 2Q08, they`re also in third, behind only Alberta (6,730) and B.C. (1,669) again, with 1,107 new residents. So I`d say they`re doing well in that category.

Their rate of unemployment sits at 4.1%, behind only Alberta`s at 3.8%. Same goes for participation rate, second only to AB`s.

Finally, on wages, SK has experienced the biggest YOY percentage growth in Canada. Their average weekly earnings are relatively low, given their low unemployment rate and tight labour market, so I`d actually expect those to continue to rise at a greater pace than the rest of the country`s, right on par with Alberta.

As for it being "too expensive" to live there, how can any resident of Alberta or B.C. say that?!? Their real estate is trading at a lot less times-earnings and the CPI in AB is higher than anywhere else in Canada; meaning that it costs more for your food, for your shelter, for your utilities, for your entertainment...etc., etc., etc.

On Regina`s bedroom communities, I`d check out Regina Beach. A good friend of mine used to rent out my basement, and he was always talking about moving back there (Regina is his hometown) and buying a place in Regina Beach, where he said it was cheaper, it was a really nice lake community, and it was only about 15 minutes north of Regina. I haven`t looked into this at all, just going by what he said. But you`ve gotta think that there are some
bedroom-esque communities in each city, and if they`ve not experienced the same or a similar upward spike in values over this past year, there could be a great buying opportunity.
 

GarthChapman

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#12
QUOTE (ZanderRobertson @ Nov 11 2008, 12:06 AM) What bedroom communities of Regina? I honestly don`t know what they are. I mean, Calgary has Airdrie, Balzac, Cochrane, High River, and Okotoks to name a few. Edmonton has St.Albert, Devon, Sherwood Park, Ft.Saskatchewan, Leduc, Nisku, Stony Plain, Spruce Grove and Beaumont to name a few more. Some of Toronto`s bedrooms are bigger than Regina. Montreal ditto.

Moose Jaw is 70 Km down the road from Regina.

I don`t know much about the geography of that part of Sask but in terms of Saskatoon there aren`t too many ATTRACTIVE towns around it. Having been to Purdue and Biggar on numerous occasions I can attest to that. I think there`s more to being a bedroom community than proximity. many of these tiny sask towns still have natural ice arenas.

Does Sask have a bright future? I`d say so, but I think Don`s right that prices are a little out of line with reality.

zander

Check into bedroom communities of Regina like White City and Balgonie (which has a pretty flash indoor arena).
 

willy

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Feb 7, 2008
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Cambridge ON
#13
Sorry to get away from Sask. but I`m wondering about St. John`s. The oil there is offshore and there`s not a lot of local refineries. It`s in the ship, just as easy to ship the crude anywhere. I can see local prices rising a bit from the offshore workers, but unless the rigs are built there, and the crude refined there, isn`t the potential kind of limited?
I`ve been to St. John`s, the bedroom communities have some real downsides, like fog so thick you can`t walk through it, let alone drive to commute, and lust craved moose charging your car, which really sucks on the drive to work in the morning.
I`ve been wondering about this for a while. The NFLD govt stands to benefit from the extra cash influx, but it`s a completely different fish from Alberta, where oil extraction is very labour intensive.
I`m thinking St John`s may be a boom-bust situation created by investors overestimating the impact of offshore oil.

Please correct me if I`m wrong.

w
 

kanabel

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#14
QUOTE (joe123 @ Nov 11 2008, 12:23 AM) I have family in Saskatoon... They say many "used to be" Albertans are coming back to Alberta.. Edmonton especially. They say the number of Alberta License plates has dropped significantly. Yet I`ve noticed more and more sask license plates here in edmonton. Anyone else see this trend? I know Sask has the resources in the ground, but getting them out etc. is another story. Wages still have very far to go to compare with the living standard of Alberta. My $0.02 is that people seem to be waking up to the fact that Sask is overpriced now, and chosing Alberta again. House for house the price difference is not that much, but I now my wage is 30% more here in Edmonton.

Yes, more SK license plates, but mounted onto newer and more expensive cars than I saw in 2006.
Cheers
 
Jan 13, 2008
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Edmonton
#15
QUOTE (GarthChapman @ Nov 11 2008, 11:27 PM) Check into bedroom communities of Regina like White City and Balgonie (which has a pretty flash indoor arena).

haha, i remember playing hockey in some of the flashy arenas in sask, no wonder they produce some of the toughest players around. maybe this boom will change their hockey style.
 

MonteDobson

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Oct 7, 2007
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#16
We live in White City which is a bedroom community of Regina. There have been over 500 new housing starts (in a town of ~3000) in the past year and our home value has increased ~150-175K over the last 12-18 months. There are also places like Lumsden, Balgonie, Pilot Butte, Pense, Grande Coulee etc. All of these places are great places to live and raise a family, however as a place to invest...to me the ripple effect has already occurred and rental demand will always be higher in the larger centers of Regina/Saskatoon.

To put it in perspective, there were small towns with less than 500 people, where homes were getting multiple offers etc due to an influx of speculators money. Many of these towns have nothing for businesses and are mainly agricultural based. People were buying because it was "cheap". Now that the commodity boom has eased, you will start to see some of these ridiculous prices start to retreat as the speculators get flushed out. Our listings have skyrocketed and yet builders continue to bang up houses at a record pace...yikes I see a trainwreck ahead!

I think SK has as bright a future as any province, but you need to do your homework. Rents are much lower, property taxes are much higher and are wages have not caught up to Alberta levels. Cashflow is next to impossible to find unless you get a heck of a deal. In-migration will continue to slow due to the fact it is no longer a cheaper place to live.

Maybe we should join forces and lobby for a new province called Albertawan or something like that...then look out!
 
Jan 13, 2008
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Edmonton
#17
Well, that sounds like the true goods on what`s actually going on in the Regina area. Thanks for that.

I also agree about a merger, let`s put the siamese twins back together again!

Zander

QUOTE (C2Ventures @ Nov 12 2008, 09:35 AM) We live in White City which is a bedroom community of Regina. There have been over 500 new housing starts (in a town of ~3000) in the past year and our home value has increased ~150-175K over the last 12-18 months. There are also places like Lumsden, Balgonie, Pilot Butte, Pense, Grande Coulee etc. All of these places are great places to live and raise a family, however as a place to invest...to me the ripple effect has already occurred and rental demand will always be higher in the larger centers of Regina/Saskatoon.

To put it in perspective, there were small towns with less than 500 people, where homes were getting multiple offers etc due to an influx of speculators money. Many of these towns have nothing for businesses and are mainly agricultural based. People were buying because it was "cheap". Now that the commodity boom has eased, you will start to see some of these ridiculous prices start to retreat as the speculators get flushed out. Our listings have skyrocketed and yet builders continue to bang up houses at a record pace...yikes I see a trainwreck ahead!

I think SK has as bright a future as any province, but you need to do your homework. Rents are much lower, property taxes are much higher and are wages have not caught up to Alberta levels. Cashflow is next to impossible to find unless you get a heck of a deal. In-migration will continue to slow due to the fact it is no longer a cheaper place to live.

Maybe we should join forces and lobby for a new province called Albertawan or something like that...then look out!