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Calgary Nixes Secondary Suites - Investor Implications

Thomas Beyer

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REIN Member
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Aug 30, 2007
Messages
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Calgary city council
yesterday voted to not amend existing by-laws to allow a "card blanche"
approach to secondary suites.



Having lived in Calgary in an established neighborhood in the 90's for many
years, but also as a landlord, all I can say is: BRAVO. Many neighborhoods were
designed 40+ years ago, with low density and single family houses in mind. Some
newer neighborhoods already look like Europe, with cars parked everywhere.
Thus, in my opinion, an approach to essentially allow double-family homes
everywhere and twice as many cars would not be sensible. A more useful approach
would be a street-by-street approach, much like Vancouver, were a certain
amount of legal suites or "coach homes" are allowed per block, to
make an area denser, but not all homes by default as now entire neighborhoods
could change character.



Combine this with $100+ oil, a booming economy in Calgary and Alberta in
general, the recent tightening to CMHC mortgage rules and to me it means: vacancies
in Calgary will tighten, rents will go up and therefore apartment building values.




As this decision is closely watched in other cities and towns in Alberta, it
would also mean the same thing for our other buildings concentrated in the
Edmonton region. Alberta is the place to be as a landlord right now, and we've
seen considerable tightening of vacancies since fall 2010 in all of our Alberta
buildings, which will translate into rent increases in the spring/summer of
2011 after almost 3 years of flatish rents and values.
 
Calgary seem to be taking a more cautious approach to secondary suites.



Edmonton however, changed the zoning to allow secondary suites in most neighborhhoods, therefore Thomas's statement the lack of secondary suites will cause the apartment rents to raise will not be the case in Edmonton. Calgary yes, Edmonton no.



In migration will make the difference. And the signs are starting to appear for more jobs and more movement. Time will tell, but it looking good for the spring so far.



And Edmonton tends to lag Calgary for 6 to 12 months.
 
[quote user=brentdavies]secondary suites will cause the apartment rents to raise will not be the case in Edmonton. Calgary yes, Edmonton no.


fair enough .. Edmonton DID allow secondary suites .. but with relatively expensive fire code provisions .. and as such VERY FEW secondary suites or "coach homes" have been approved .. I think the article stated just over one hundred .. hence: results will be SIMILAR to Calgary ..



we see significantly more leasing / lower vacancy in all of our Edmonton region or Calgary based apartment buildings .. and I think once the snow melts, the grass gets green and oil is still above $100 .. a VERY TIGHT MARKET VERY QUICKLY ..



Also to watch: natural gas prices .. as the moratorium in Quebec and in some US states on "fracking" in shale gas formations may ripple into BC and AB too and cause gas prices to rise quickly too .. and the AB government's revenue are heavily tied to gas royalties .. far more than oil or oilsands !!!
 
[quote user=VinceTassone]It also suggests that the economy in Alberta has been mismanaged to some extent


One main issue is overspending .. and a second is the low natural gas prices which drove a lot of the AB government royalty revenues .. and those plummeted substantially in late 2008 ... !!
 
[quote user=ThomasBeyer]and the AB government's revenue are heavily tied to gas royalties .. far more than oil or oilsands !!!


This used to be true, but isn't any more. Natural gas revenues have declined precipitiously, and oil revenues have increased dramatically, as new technology and high prices increase conventional drilling (especially horizontal drilling with multi-stage fracs)** and oilsands projects reach payout. Each oilsands project pays a dramatically larger % of its revenue to the Alberta government after the company gets its initial investment back. Since these projects are expensive to build, that takes awhile, but some companies have started to reach payout on their projects.



http://www.finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/budget2011/fiscal-plan-revenue.pdf



The 2011 budget forecast is for 4.1 Billion in bitumen royalties, 1.9 Billion in Crude Oil royalties, and only 1.0 Billion in natural gas royalties.



Regards,



Michael



**The Alberta gov't should send Packers Plus (who popularized the multi-stage frac) a fruit basket or something. They're making big money off that technology.
 
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