Canada`s Employment Drops Like a Rock

[Jack]

-Employment dropped by 70,600 in November, a much steeper decline than market expectations of a 25,000 dip.-StatsCan reported that 27,000 public administration jobs were cut in November. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.3% from 6.2% in October marking a two-year high.

-Ontario bore the brunt of job losses in the month, with 66,000 workers cut from payrolls, 42,000 of which were in manufacturing positions. Ontario`s unemployment rate jumped to 7.1% from 6.5% in October.

-The deepening recession in the United States and persistent financial market turmoil are negatively affecting Canada`s growth outlook and we expect they will weigh on the labour market going forward.

-Our forecast is that the unemployment rate will continue to drift higher into next year as weak demand for Canadian exports and slower consumer and business spending lead to more job losses.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not surprising, as employment tends to lag the economic cycle by 6 - 12 months. Get used to these sort of reports, as 2009 continues to look worse. The first two quarters, especially, will not be pretty.

 

[wgraham]

Jack,here is the exact headline:Canada’s job bonanza comes to an abrupt halt

I really don`t think that this comes as a huge surprise...especially the fact that most of them were in the East.

So Jack my question to you is what are you doing? I see you posting these headlines with your twist which is helpful in the fact that they make me think. But what I really want to know is that if there is all of this doom and gloom out there.....what are you doing to make it an opportunity or are you just sitting in the corner in fear? How are you managing this market? I think that it is very easy to sit back do nothing but at the end of the day what do you have to really show for it?

Personally, I think that 2009 will be one of the best buying opportunities in the next 10 years......if you know what you are doing! I will be aggressive and conservative at the same time. I will be buying property that I know I can make money on both short term and long term. I will be upping my marketing, I will be changing my vacancy rates, I will be making sure that I have the best product on the block, I will be seeking more investors, I will be taking advantage of low interest rates, I will be looking forward to higher incomes and in-migration in Alberta in the next two years and I will be ahead of the wave. I am not in this game for the next two quarters!


So, Jack, what are you doing other than reading the newspaper and posting?

Cheers
W

PS Thanks for getting rid of the Batman picture! It certainly wasn`t a beauty

 

[DaveRhydderch]

BUTTTTTTTTTTTT

Unemployment in Alberta actually dropped. Its like Don says, "I don`t invest in Canadian Real Estate".

 

[Jack]

QUOTE I really don`t think that this comes as a huge surprise...especially the fact that most of them were in the East.Agreed - the numbers aren`t surprising. I expect unemployment to continue its rise for the next 6 - 12 months. BUT, I do remember a tidal wave of rah-rah Canada, unbridled positivity/optimism around these boards when the September numbers were released and a 100,000 net gain was announced. So is it just not important when the numbers go the other way?

QUOTE what are you doing to make it an opportunity or are you just sitting in the corner in fear? How are you managing this market? I think that it is very easy to sit back do nothing but at the end of the day what do you have to really show for it?

What do I have to show for it? How about cash! Not that I`m "sitting in the corner in fear" (nice), but I don`t think it`s a poor decision at all to wait and see how this all shakes out. You can buy now, on speculation that things will rebound, but I also heard a lot of "oh, the housing market in Calgary will rebound in 2008, you watch and see", etc. This was a year ago when leading indicators of a correction were making themselves known.

QUOTE Personally, I think that 2009 will be one of the best buying opportunities in the next 10 years......if you know what you are doing!
Really? I thought that 2008 was supposed to be the best buying opportunity!

QUOTE I will be buying property that I know I can make money on both short term and long term. I will be upping my marketing, I will be changing my vacancy rates, I will be making sure that I have the best product on the block, I will be seeking more investors, I will be taking advantage of low interest rates, I will be looking forward to higher incomes and in-migration in Alberta in the next two years and I will be ahead of the wave. I am not in this game for the next two quarters!

You "know", eh? Did you also "know" that the TSX would drop about 40% this past year? How about sharing some more of these known truths of yours, we weren`t all blessed with extra sensory perception!

 

[wgraham]

QUOTE (Jack @ Dec 5 2008, 12:11 PM) Agreed - the numbers aren`t surprising. I expect unemployment to continue its rise for the next 6 - 12 months. BUT, I do remember a tidal wave of rah-rah Canada, unbridled positivity/optimism around these boards when the September numbers were released and a 100,000 net gain was announced. So is it just not important when the numbers go the other way?
Yes there was certainly some rah-rah and it is just as important but you have to look behind the numbers. Didn`t we know that the september numbers were bolstered by the election and would be short lived. We also know that employment rose in Ab and fell it Ont in October. You need to take this data and decide how it changes your strategy not sit on the sidelines.

QUOTE (Jack @ Dec 5 2008, 12:11 PM) What do I have to show for it? How about cash! Not that I`m "sitting in the corner in fear" (nice), but I don`t think it`s a poor decision at all to wait and see how this all shakes out. You can buy now, on speculation that things will rebound, but I also heard a lot of "oh, the housing market in Calgary will rebound in 2008, you watch and see", etc. This was a year ago when leading indicators of a correction were making themselves known.

Cash is King for sure right now but at some point in time you have to make it do something for you.....please let us all know when you do that Are home prices more than the 30`s, 80`s, 90`s and will they be more in 2015, 2020? more than likely.

QUOTE (Jack @ Dec 5 2008, 12:11 PM) Really? I thought that 2008 was supposed to be the best buying opportunity!

I actually did quite well in `08. I had more motivated vendors come to me with creative purchase than any other year to date. Some of those deals I did close with a win/win style.

QUOTE (Jack @ Dec 5 2008, 12:11 PM) You "know", eh? Did you also "know" that the TSX would drop about 40% this past year? How about sharing some more of these known truths of yours, we weren`t all blessed with extra sensory perception!

Nope I didn`t know that the TSX was going to drop 40%....this is supposed to be my Financial Advisors roll

for some strange reason he didn`t know either. You wouldn`t happen to know a go FA would you

because mine isn`t doing the homework that I pay him to do.

But I do know that the property that I bought this year brings in great monthly cashflow....yes, I am sure that there will be some bumps along the way and maybe I didn`t get the appreciation that would have been gravy this year......but in 5/10/25 years I KNOW that I will be more than ok.

Playing the game, not sitting on the sidelines shouting away,
Wade