Fresh key MLS stats on Grande Prairie

[DrewBetts]

Hi folks,

One of the things that has always frustrated me about Grande Prairie is the lack of market stats from their real estate board. The GPREB releases absolutely NO STATS whatsoever. They have political beef with the City, so there is no cooperation. CMHC manages to get their hands on MLS data, and releases information on GP in their Prairie Region Highlights, however, this information is usually outdated by the time it is published.

As investors we need up to date, accurate information. So, at the moment, the only way to get this information is from a realtor who knows what to search for and how to structure the queries. Good news for you...I just spent all evening pulling stats with my realtor. It only cost me a couple of gin and tonics and here we are! I`m going to publish these in a report shortly, but I figured I`d post them here first as I expect many of you may find them useful. Please contact me or post back with any questions. Enjoy!

Inventory As of February 29/2008
SFH 502 Approximately 6 months worth of inventory
Condos 79
High point was 642 active listings in Sept/Oct 2007
199 of the 502 active listings are 0 years old = developer inventory

New Listings
Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08
SFH 82 202 180

Average MLS Price (SFH)
Dec-06 Dec-07 % Change
$298,000 $289,000 -3.02%
Jan-07 Jan-08 % Change
$317,000 $298,000 -5.99%
Feb-07 Feb-08 % Change
$314,428 $288,000 -8.41%

Days on Market (SFH)
Dec-06 Dec-07 % Change
35 68 94.29%
Jan-07 Jan-08 % Change
51 102 100.00%
Feb-07 Feb-08 % Change
43 76 76.74%

Sales (SFH)
Dec-06 Dec-07 % Change
85 52 -38.82%
Jan-07 Jan-08 % Change
105 89 -15.24%
Feb-07 Feb-08 % Change
131 81 -38.17%

1 year trailing average for monthly sales: 104

As I`m sure you`ve noticed, these stats are not good. However, we need to look at the bigger picture. Housing starts are WAY DOWN this year and all the developers have stopped building. This inventory will be chewed through by the end of the summer and come spring we`ll be well on our way into a new housing crisis. Now is an excellent time to buy as you actually have negotiating power. Happy hunting

 

[jernie]

Drew,

As usual great information about GP.
Thank you


Bernie

 

[TerryF]

Excellent information and very nice of you to go to the trouble to get it and post it. I find it very interesting as GP is one of the areas I am considering. But.... Wow....... very deep trough GP is in at the moment. Like you say though,,,, great opportunity for negotiating. Thanks!

 

[DrewBetts]

QUOTE (TerryF @ Mar 1 2008, 07:15 AM) Excellent information and very nice of you to go to the trouble to get it and post it. I find it very interesting as GP is one of the areas I am considering. But.... Wow....... very deep trough GP is in at the moment. Like you say though,,,, great opportunity for negotiating. Thanks!
Not a problem. Glad to share information. That`s how we all succeed together right? In regards to the stats, yes they appear dismal - at the moment. This is just a very temporary situation. As long-term investors we use things like this as opporunities.

A couple of items you may also want to note is that CMHC is forecasting 14.1% growth for GP in 2008 and Don Campbell is forecasting 11-12%. I`d go with Don over CMHC any day, but that`s still double digit appreciation for this market this year. 2009 will be even better as natural gas rebounds and prices rise. Much of the GP economy is driven by natural gas exploration.

There`s already buzz in this market that wasn`t there last month. I use another indicator, which I don`t publish - being, how much my realtor`s phone is ringing with buyers. Right now the "realtor call volume" index is WAY up. Demand here is still stable and, in my opinion, will start picking up over the summer to blast through that inventory.

 

[KimFranz]

Thanks Drew!! I am looking to do more "shopping" in GP this spring!

Kim