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Investing Season (Ontario)

C

ChrisandCatarina

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Hi There,

I am currently reading one of Don`s books and just read the portion where he relates real estate investing timing to seasons and wondered if anyone knew what season Don thinks we are currently in, in Ontario, and also what you guys thought as well.

Thanks!
 
QUOTE (ChrisandCatarina @ Dec 8 2010, 05:05 PM) .. what season ...
not a great analogy anymore .. as prices are neither ready for a big drop (aka "fall") .. nor ready to pop (aka "spring") .. so if you must we are probably end of winter (after a smallish drop due to financial crisis) followed by a cold spring .. a steady but slow inflationary rise .. where holding with enough cash-flow to pay mortgage and expenses IS CRITICAL to create long term wealth through equity gain and mortgage paydown !!

Perhaps even a nice spring soon with a new conservative government in Ontario !
 
I would agree with Thomas that it`s not a perfect analogy anymore, but also agree with Adam that the closest fit is winter.

We`ve experienced the big drop, and prices seem likely to be stagnant for awhile before economic growth allows for a big increase (spring).
 
QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Dec 9 2010, 12:32 PM) not a great analogy anymore .. as prices are neither ready for a big drop (aka "fall") .. nor ready to pop (aka "spring") .. so if you must we are either winter or summer .. a steady but slow inflationary rise .. where holding with enough cash-flow to pay mortgage and expenses IS CRITICAL to create long term wealth through equity gain and mortgage paydown !!

Looking outside, it looks like winter and so feels the investment climate. But with spring just around the corner. I am looking for deals. To be honest, this is how I feel about Alberta. Ontario is another market entirely and I have no opinion there.
 
QUOTE (gwasser @ Dec 9 2010, 01:46 PM) Looking outside, it looks like winter and so feels the investment climate. But with spring just around the corner. I am looking for deals. To be honest, this is how I feel about Alberta. Ontario is another market entirely and I have no opinion there.

100% agree. There are definitely deals to be had, but they need to be analyzed through a cashflow lens, not a "the-market-will-go-up-10%-per-year" appreciation lens. (aka speculation)

I should have also mentioned that I was referring to Alberta markets as well, although the data seems to suggest ON is doing a bit better right now.

Michael
 
Another way of looking at the market is with the cycle clock from Kieran Trass. I too believe we are in Winter and around 3:30 which equals mid-slump. Now is the time to begin acquisitions heavily (imo) here in Ontario until we hit 9:00 mid recovery...and that could be years or months away...who knows?

But your best ammunition is to know what `season` or `cycle` the real estate market is in.
 
QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Dec 9 2010, 12:32 PM) Perhaps even a nice spring soon with a new conservative government in Ontario !

My MPP is Tim Hudak, I`m going to start calling him MR Premier elect
 
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